IPCC s plans for the next cycle and how industry can contribute

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1 IPCC s plans for the next cycle and how industry can contribute Jim Skea IPCC WG III Co-chair and President Energy Institute Workshop Climate change advice to governments: How the petroleum industry can contribute International Petroleum Week, London 22 February 2017

2 What IPCC is for to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

3 Who exactly makes up IPCC? 195 governments the Panel - who meet in plenary 34 elected scientists, including an overall Chair, 3 Vice-Chairs and 6 Working Group co-chairs, who form the Bureau (scientific leadership) A small Secretariat staffed by WMO/UNEP based in Geneva Technical Support Units for each of the three Working Groups Hundreds of authors nominated by governments/ observers and selected by the Bureau Thousands of scientific and government reviewers

4 What are the parameters I is for intergovernmental, but it s a place where policy and science meet Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive The Sixth Assessment cycle (AR6)

5 What IPCC will be producing in its next cycle: The main reports April 2021 July 2021 April 2022 October 2021

6 What IPCC will be producing in its next cycle: The Special Reports Global warming of 1.5 C An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty September 2018 Special Report on Climate Change and Land (provisional title) September 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (provisional title) September 2019

7 And don t forget the Task Force on Inventories Energy-related refinements coming up include: Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas systems Additional guidance for unconventional oil and gas production and abandoned wells New guidance on fuel transformation

8 Global warming of 1.5 C: outline Summary for Policy Makers (up to 10 pages) Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages) Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5 C in the context of sustainable development (40 pages) Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5 C global warming on natural and human systems (60 pages) Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change (50 pages) Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (20 pages) Boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (up to 20 pages) FAQs (10 pages)

9 Structure of the 2014 Mitigation Report 1. Introductory Chapter 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning 13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments 14. Regional Development and Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

10 How reports are produced

11 A Plenary approval session

12 WG III (Mitigation) A single Technical Support Unit across two countries

13 Scientific challenges for the Sixth Assessment Cycle General challenges Solutions focused approaches Chair s vision Realistic response strategies the original 1988 remit Issues being addressed by the WG III (Mitigation) co-chairs Moderating textbook/undergraduate 101 style chapters Linking Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) to concrete mitigation measures from a practical perspective Links to non-climate goals: energy access, biodiversity and ecosystem services, poverty eradication (the UN Sustainable Development Goals) The people part - consumption/behaviour/decision-making

14 Feeding into UNFCCC/Paris Agreement Special Report on Global warming of 1.5 C will come just before COP 24 in 2018 and the facilitative dialogue between countries Will take stock of the collective efforts of Parties in relation to progress towards the long-term goal (holding warming to well below 2 C, pursuing efforts towards 1.5 C) Main reports in time for the first global stocktake of country pledges in 2023 Insights into: the long-term goal reaching global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century Synchronising IPCC cycles with the five-yearly global stocktake High expectations but little articulation of the means

15 Mechanisms for engaging Official observers IPIECA is an official observer and attends sessions of the Panel Scoping meeting participants AR6 opportunities now past Authors a very small number of oil and gas company employees do contribute demanding, 4 week-long Lead Author meetings over a cycle Contributing authors modest contributions made offline Reviewers offline contribution, chapter comments with a 4- week turn-round

16 More information IPCC website Working Group III (Mitigation) website IPIECA website