Reliability Challenges of the Clean Power Plan

Transcription

1 Reliability Challenges of the Clean Power Plan Branden Sudduth Director, Reliability Planning

2 2 Outline WECC Role in the Western Interconnection Uniqueness of the Western Interconnection WECC efforts related to the Clean Power Plan Potential reliability challenges

3 3 What we take for granted?!

4 4 WECC History and Background Energy Policy Act 2005 FERC Authority under Section 215 Mandatory Reliability Standards Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement Civil Penalties and Sanctions NERC approved as Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) Eight Regional Entities including WECC delegated to implement standards and compliance Northeast Blackout August 14, 2003 ~50 million people $6 billion

5 5 WECC Roles in the Industry What we do: o Compliance Monitoring and Enforcement o Standards Development Reliability Planning and Performance Analysis What we do not do: o Site, permit, or build transmission o Operate transmission o Cost allocation o Pick winners WECC s mission is to promote and foster a reliable and efficient bulk electric system

6 Resource Mix in the Western Interconnection BA-Reported Nameplate Capacity (MW) 2014 BA-Reported Net Generation (GWh) Gas 117,200 41% Gas 233,800 28% Coal 215,400 26% Other Thermal 5,400 2% Coal 39,500 14% Other Renewable 7,000 2% Wind 24,300 9% Solar 8,400 3% Nuclear 7,700 3% Hydro 74,800 26% Other Thermal 1,400 0% Other Renewable 30,800 4% Wind 52,100 6% Solar 11,500 2% Nuclear 63,000 8% Hydro 216,600 26%

7 Transmission System in the Western Interconnection 7 127,000 circuit miles of transmission lines largest topology across 8 Regions 67 Paths Long-distance lines serving diversified load pockets

8 Total Energy Transfers

9 Reliability Planning and Performance Analysis Planning Services Transmission Planning Event Analysis Reliability Assessment Stakeholder Committees and Input Performance Assessments Base cases Common case Powerflow Stability analysis Principal Transmission Facilities Map Project Tracking Congestion study Datasets and models Long-Term Planning Tool Transmission plans Resource adequacy State of Interconnection Event Analysis reports Cause Coding Root-cause analysis Guidelines State of the Interconnection Situational Awareness Operating Practices Survey Entity Certification Mis-operation review

10 Key Planning Efforts Planning Services Transmission Planning Reliability Assessment What we answer: Is the system electrically sound, stable & reliable during abnormal conditions? What is the future state of the grid? Do we need additional transmission? Is the future system adequate to meet demand? What risks to reliability exist? How the information is used? Operational changes Transmission expansion Input into others studies Standards development Transmission and generation expansion Input into policy decisions Input into others studies Who will listen? Registered entities States and provinces Policy makers Independent project developers Federal agencies NGOs & advocacy groups What we don t do: Make siting decisions Select projects Write public policy Create an Interconnection-wide IRP

11 11 EPA Clean Power Plan Impetus: President s Climate Action Plan instructed EPA to reduce CO₂ emissions EPA Authority: Section 111(d) of Clean Air Act Identified existing affected electric generating units (EGUs) 30% reduction in CO₂ by 2030 relative to 2005 levels WECC Approach: Develop a cross-functional team to assess Reliability Issues

12 Varying State Emission Rate Goals EPA Proposed Emission Goals and State Building Blocks 3,000 Block 1 Coal Heat Rate 2,500 2, Rate Block 2 Block 3 Block 4 Gas CCs Nuclear At-Risk Renewables Efficiency Lbs/MWh 1,500 Proposed 2030 Goal 1, Goal MT WY CO UT NM AZ WA NV OR CA ID

13 WECC Focus EPA Clean Power Plan Our intent: Provide unbiased and objective information that can be used by state officials, public utility commissioners, utilities, and other interested stakeholders to understand the potential impacts of the proposed rule (and resulting plans) Our focus: Identifying potential reliability impacts and supporting regional collaboration No compliance obligations Will not recommend specific compliance plan(s) Stakeholders are a critical part of WECC s efforts

14 14 IRAM based cross-functional effort Inter-connection wide system reliability impacts Resource and Transmission Adequacy Gas/Electric Interdependence Resource Adequacy Production Simulation Model Policy Challenge: EPA Clean Power Plan Reliability Studies

15 15 WECC Role in 111(d) Analyses Phase 1 Western States develop options Identify compliance strategies Phase 2 Partner with states regional solution(s) Coordinate with WIEB/CNEE, others Phase 3 Engage with WECC Reliability Assessments

16 16 EPA CPP- Potential Reliability Challenges Changes to interconnected system Changing load shapes and resource mix Increased penetration of renewables (utility scale & DG resources) Adequacy of resources to offset potential retirements System stability and resiliency to disturbances Responsiveness and flexibility of system to maintain reliability

17 Reliability Challenges of a Changing System Old Paradigm: High load situations are the most stressful New Paradigm: New stressed conditions could be driven by the resource mix Hot Summer Day Peak hour has worried us most Cool, Sunny, and Windy Spring Day What about this situation? Load (MW) Non-VG Load (MW) Non-VG Wind Wind Solar 24 hours 24 hours Solar As a percentage of total load, there is less spinning mass on the system in the new paradigm

18 WECC Approach to Addressing Key Reliability Issues 18 Evaluate reliability impacts only Partner with WIEB, CNEE and key entities Engage WECC membership and other stakeholders

19 19 Thank you Branden Sudduth Director, Reliability Planning Tel: