NSTA Web Seminar: Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate Climate Change Jeopardy

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1 LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP NSTA Web Seminar: Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate Climate Change Jeopardy Presented by Dr. Mike Winton, NOAA Tuesday, March 31, 2009

2 Climate Change Jeopardy Host: Mike Winton of NOAA/GFDL 31 March 2009

3 The categories are Observations of change Basic greenhouse physics Climate models & what they tell us Climate change options

4 The earth s surface is warming GISS Temperature

5 The heat that has warmed our climate did not come out of the ocean IPCC

6 Ice is declining globally sea level rise Antarctica Greenland Glaciers and Ice Caps Total 0.20 mm/yr 0.21 mm/yr 0.77 mm/yr 1.18 mm/yr Both Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice Glaciers are retreating globally Northern hemisphere snow cover has declined Northern hemisphere sea ice cover is declining Southern hemisphere sea ice cover is not declining

7 Sea level is rising (ice melt + seawater expansion) IPCC

8 Earth s energy balance is the key to long term climate change IPCC

9 Without the greenhouse effect the earth s climate would be A) The same B) A wee bit cooler C) Like the ice ages D) Like a big ice ball

10 Without the greenhouse effect the earth s climate would be A) The same B) A wee bit cooler C) Like the ice ages D) Like a big ice ball

11 The most important greenhouse gas is? A) N 2 (78 % of the atmosphere) B) O 2 (21 % of the atmosphere) C) H 2 0 (<1 % of the atmosphere) D) CO 2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)

12 The most important greenhouse gas is? A) N 2 (78 % of the atmosphere) B) O 2 (21 % of the atmosphere) C) H 2 0 (<1 % of the atmosphere) D) CO 2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere) Water vapor is a climate feedback

13 Atmospheric CO 2 is increasing Global Warming Art

14 Atmospheric CO 2 was stable prior to the 19 th century IPCC

15 The CO 2 increase is anthropogenic CDIAC

16 We are perturbing the Global carbon cycle IPCC

17 Atmospheric carbon has a range of timescales from short to very, very long Global Warming Art

18 Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget of the entire earth by? A) About 0.01 % B) About 0.1 % C) About 1 % D) About 10 %

19 Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget A) about 0.01 % B) about 0.1 % C) about 1 % D) about 10 % of the entire earth by:

20 There are numerous anthropogenic forcings of climate change IPCC

21 We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they are A) Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other C) Both D) Neither

22 We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they are A) Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other C) Both D) Neither

23 What is a global climate model? A GCM is a mathematical representation of the major climate system components and their interactions. The GCM equations operate on a global grid and are solved on a computer. Atmosphere Land Ocean Ice Concentrations of radiatively active species Emissions of radiatively active species Physical CM ESM* *Earth System Model

24 Climate model equations are solved on global grids Current model resolution Atmosphere 2 deg. 1980s 1990s 2000s OCEAN MODEL RESOLUTION: 1 deg.

25 Simulated vs. Parameterized Simulated processes: larger than grid scale, based on bedrock scientific principles (conservation of energy, mass and momentum). Example: storms. Parameterized processes: smaller than grid scale, formulations guided by physical principles but also make use of observational data. Example: clouds.

26 Detection and attribution of climate change using models (2) Attribution: anthropogenic forcing is that something IPCC (1) Detection: something beyond natural variability is happening to the global climate

27 Detection and attribution at the continental scale

28 Climate models need emissions to project future climate change IPCC

29 Projection: 21 st century global temperature rises further IPCC

30 The hydrologic cycle intensifies

31 Sea level rises further IPCC Caveat: ice sheet dynamic response not fully modeled

32 Global warming impacts Option 1: Adapt IPCC

33 Option 2: Mitigation stabilize carbon emissions Socolow, Scientific American 2006 Conserve energy or produce it more efficiently Use alternative energy: solar, wind, bio, nuclear Sequester carbon

34 Emissions growth has powerful socio economic drivers IPCC

35 Emissions growth has powerful socioeconomic drivers Rich emission level Emissions per capita The Rich The Rest Become Rich The Rest Pop. increases Population

36 If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back down in? A) 1 year B) 10 years C) 100 years D) 1000 years or longer

37 If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back down in A) 1 year B) 10 years C) 100 years D) 1000 years or longer

38 Even if emissions were cut to zero, temperature would fall very slowly Solomon S. et.al. PNAS 2009;106:

39 There are three options: Mitigation reduce carbon emissions Adaptation adjust to climate change as best we can Geoengineering (e.g. continuously inject reflective aerosols into stratosphere) What option(s) are best A) Mitigation B) Adaptation C) Mitigation and adaptation, not geoengineering D) Adaptation and geoengineering, not mitigation

40 Summary: Climate change jeopardy is a high stakes game with uncertain odds Basic greenhouse physics CO 2 increase anthropogenic Earth is warming Warming is anthropogenic Future carbon emissions Future climate change Impacts of future climate change More certain Less certain

41 Special Thanks to NOAA, SRS and USFS for sponsoring this Web Seminar!

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44 National Science Teachers Association Dr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-learning NSTA Web Seminars Paul Tingler, Director Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator