VISTAS Highlights. November 10, 2005

Transcription

1 VISTAS Highlights November 10, 2005

2 Demonstrating Reasonable Progress For each VISTAS Class I area: 1. Identify pollutants contributing to PM2.5 and visibility 2. Identify probable source areas using back trajectories and residence time 3. Develop emissions inventories for 2002, 2009, Apply CMAQ air quality model to evaluate planned controls and compare to uniform rate of progress On the Way (OTW) controls including CAIR + CAMR EGU emissions from IPM assuming least-cost trading Evaluate alternative EGU emissions assuming CAIR trading only within a state

3 Demonstrating Reasonable Progress 5. Evaluate sources within 200 km of Class I area and within highest probability source areas Define major source categories, individual sources, expected OTW controls, and potential future control options 6. Run CMAQ to estimate benefits from BART + OTW (CAIR) controls and compare to uniform progress Sources subject to BART defined by States in spring CMAQ sensitivity run in winter 2006 will define potential benefits of estimated BART controls; run is not a regulatory demonstration. 7. For Class I areas not meeting uniform progress assuming CAIR + BART, evaluate candidate control measures

4 Contributions to Haze and PM 2.5 For Class I areas in Southern Appalachian Mtns., 20% haziest days generally occur April to September. For coastal areas, 20% worst days can occur year round. PM2.5 components in urban and Class I areas are similar Sulfate largest contributor to haze and PM2.5 Organic carbon mass generally 2 nd largest contributor at Class I areas More OCM in urban areas than in Class I areas Nitrate, elemental carbon, and soil smaller contributions More nitrate in urban than in Class I areas, more in winter

5 Light Extinction on 20% Haziest Days - IMPROVE CM Soil Organics EC NH4NO3 (NH4)2SO4 Rayleigh Extinction (Mm-1) 0 Dolly Sods, WV Shenandoah, VA James Rvier Face, VA Mammoth Cave, KY Sipsey, AL Great Smoky Mtns, TN Cohutta, GA* Shining Rock, NC* Linville Gorge, NC Swan Quarter, NC Cape Romain, SC Okefenokee, GA Saint Marks, FL Chassahowitzka, FL Everglades, FL *one year of data

6 Fine Particle Mass Quarter 3 VISTAS Interior Sites Unidentified Fine Soil EC OCM* NO 3 NH 4 SO IMPROVE SEARCH STN Fine Particle Mass - µg/m3 Sipsey, AL Birmingham, AL Birmingham, AL Mammoth Cave, KY Louisville, KY Great Smoky Mtns, TN Knoxville, TN Cohutta, GA Atlanta, GA Atlanta, GA Shining Rock, NC Charlotte, NC Shenandoah, VA Roanoke, VA Dolly Sods, WV *STN OCM blank-corrected

7 Residence Time 20% Worst Days Sipsey, AL

8 SO2 Point Sources emitting > 5,000 tons per year 2002 Inventory Annual SO 2 emissions 250, ,000 25,000

9 Annual SO2 Emissions BaseF 50% Reduction from 2002 Typical to 2018 OTW Miscellaneous Nonroad Onroad Industrial Other Fuel Combustion EGU Annual SO2 (Thousand Tons) Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Virginia West Virginia

10 Annual NOx Emissions BaseF 50% Reduction from 2002 Typical to 2018 OTW 1, Typical 2018 OTW Miscellaneous Nonroad Onroad Industrial Other Fuel Combustion EGU Annual NOx (Thousand Tons) 100 Alabama Florida Georgia Kentucky Mississippi North Carolina South Carolina Tennessee Virginia West Virginia 0

11 VISTAS Regional Haze Air Quality Modeling CMAQ air quality model using 36-km national grid, 12-km grid over eastern U.S. MM5 meteorological model, SMOKE emissions model Model performance evaluated using monitoring data: IMPROVE, STN, SEARCH, CASTNET, NADP, AQS CMAQ annual runs for 2002, 2009, 2018 Base D completed 2018 Base F due Nov Base F due Dec 2005

12 VISTAS 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domain

13 Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Shenandoah, VA 20% Worst Days MRPO 35 Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Shenandoah NP (VA) - 20% Worst Days VISTAS 2018 OTW- Base D 30 H a z in e s s I n d e x ( D e c iv ie w s ) Year Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1B Prediction

14 Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Dolly Sods, WV 20% Worst Days MRPO 35 Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Dolly Sods Wilderness (WV) - 20% Worst Days VISTAS 2018 OTW Base D H a z in e s s I n d e x ( D e c iv ie w s ) Year Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1B Prediction

15 Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Mammoth Cave, KY 20% Worst Days MRPO Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide Path Mammoth Cave NP (KY) - 20% Worst Days VISTAS 2018 OTW Base D H a z in e s s I n d e x ( D e c iv ie w s ) Year Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1B Prediction

16 Percent Reduction Achieved Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-Base D) Compared to Reasonable Progress Goal Southern Appalachian Sites 150% 100% 50% 0% DOSO SHRO LIGO SHEN GRSM JARI COHU SIPS MACA Assumes Method IB: average of 20% worst days in with monthly RH

17 Percentage Reduction in 2018 (OTW-Base D) Compared to Reasonable Progress Goal Southern Coastal Sites 150% Percent Reduction Achieved 100% 50% 0% CHAS SWAN SAMA EVER ROMA OKEF

18 VISTAS Reasonable Progress 2018 Base D: Current IMPROVE Equation Hercules Glade, MO..... Preliminary Results. Likely to meet May meet Likely not met Additional Analyses Needed

19 VISTAS BART Activities States have drafted lists of BART-eligible sources (+/- 275 facilities as of Oct 14, 2005) VISTAS revised draft BART modeling protocol establishes common procedures across VISTAS States Public review completed Oct 22, public meeting Nov1 Final protocol due by end of November (why Pat s not here) CALPUFF single source runs for SO2, NOx, and PM determine if BART eligible source is subject to BART determine impacts of BART controls CMAQ sensitivity runs underway for NH3, VOC, or PM to determine if impact from all point sources less than contribution threshold

20 VISTAS Process to Determine if Source is Subject to BART Regional 12-km CALPUFF for Source not subject to BART No Max 24-hr dv > 0.5 Yes Subregional Fine-scale CALPUFF for Source not subject to BART No 98 th % 24-hr dv > 0.5 Yes Source subject to BART, evaluate visibility impacts of controls

21 Calculating Visibility and Natural Background VISTAS is considering changes to IMPROVE equation following recommendations from IMPROVE work group Increase multiplier for organic carbon mass from 1.4 to 1.8 for current condition Add three additional terms for SO4, NO3, and OC Re-define extinction efficiency for SO4, NO3, OC Add term for sea salt Allow Rayleigh scattering to vary with elevation Use 92% percentile to represent 20% haziest days Recommendation to IMPROVE Steering Committee expected Nov 2005

22 Extinction Compared for 20% Haziest Days, : Current IMPROVE (left) vs. Proposed IMPROVE (right) With revised equation, 20% worst days slightly hazier; 20% best days slightly clearer 250 Extinction (Mm-1) S. Salt CM SOIL LAC POM Amm. N Amm. S Rayleigh Dolly Sods, WV Shenandoah, VA James River Face, VA Brigantine, NJ

23 2009 Base D PM 2.5 Using observed DV, 62 counties in VISTAS States currently violate annual PM 2.5 NAAQS 2009 Base D projects 11 residual PM 2.5 nonattainment counties using SMAT (17%) Using observed DV, 33 violating counties Estimate 5 residual nonattainment counties in 2009 Estimated residual 2009 PM 2.5 nonattainment areas Birmingham and Atlanta urban areas Knoxville, several West Virginia Counties