Investing in Missouri // 2014 Integrated Resource Plan

Transcription

1 Investing in Missouri // 2014 Integrated Resource Plan

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3 Table of Contents Ameren Missouri Chapter 1- Executive Summary 1.1 Transitioning to a More Fuel Diverse Portfolio Our Need for New Generating Resources Resource Options for Meeting Our Needs Planning Assumptions Ameren Missouri s Preferred Resource Plan EPA s Proposed Clean Power Plan Conclusion Chapter 1 - Appendix A Chapter 2 - Planning Environment 2.1 General Economic Conditions Financial Markets Load Growth Reliability Requirements Energy Markets Natural Gas Market Coal Market Nuclear Fuel Market Electric Energy Market Power Capacity Market Renewable Energy Standard Environmental Regulation Price Scenarios Compliance References Chapter 3 - Load Analysis and Forecasting 3.1 Energy Forecast Historical Database Forecast Vintage Comparison Service Territory Economy Economic Drivers Energy Forecasting Sensitivities and Scenarios Planning Case Forecast Forecast Results Integrated Resource Plan Page 1

4 Ameren Missouri Table of Contents 3.2 Peak and Hourly System Load Forecast Energy Forecast Historical Peak and System Load Profile Shapes Peak Load Forecast Hourly System Load Forecast Forecast Results Planning Case Peak Demand Forecast Peak Demand - Extreme Weather Sensitivity Weather Normalization Future Research Projects Compliance References Chapter 3 - Appendix A Chapter 4 - Existing Supply Side Resources 4.1 Existing Generation Portfolio Existing Coal Resources Existing Gas & Oil Resources Existing Nuclear Resources Existing Renewable and Storage Resources Levelized Cost of Energy Evaluation for Existing Resources Planned Changes to Existing Non-Coal Resources Existing Coal Generation Evaluation Reliability Trends Operations and Maintenance Costs Capital Expenditures Potential Conversion of Meramec Units to Natural Gas Potential Expansion of Existing Hydroelectric Resources Keokuk Hydroelectric Expansion Opportunities Efficiency Improvements Existing Facility Efficiency Options Existing Energy Center Efficiency Options Compliance References Chapter 4 - Appendix A Chapter 4 - Appendix B Page Integrated Resource Plan

5 Table of Contents Ameren Missouri Chapter 5 - Environmental Compliance 5.1 Overview Major Environmental Laws Current Laws Water Environmental Laws Current Laws Possible Future Water Environmental Initiatives Solid Waste Environmental Laws Current Laws Possible Future Solid Waste Environmental Initiatives Compliance Assumptions Air Environmental Laws Water Environmental Laws Solid Waste Environmental Laws Other Environmental Laws Summary Compliance References Chapter 5 - Appendix A Chapter 5 - Appendix B Chapter 6 - New Supply Side Resources 6.1 Thermal Resources Potential Coal and Gas Options Potential Nuclear Resources Potential Renewable Resources Potential Landfill Gas Projects Potential Hydroelectric Projects Potential Anaerobic Digestion Projects Potential Biomass Projects Potential Solar Projects Potential Wind Resources Renewable Supply Potential Storage Resources Power Purchase Agreements Final Candidate Resource Options Compliance References Integrated Resource Plan Page 3

6 Ameren Missouri Table of Contents Chapter 6 - Appendix A Chapter 6 - Appendix B Chapter 6 - Appendix C Chapter 6 - Appendix D Chapter 7 - Transmission and Distribution 7.1 Transmission Existing System Regional Transmission Organization Planning Ameren Missouri Transmission Planning Avoided Transmission Cost Calculation Methodology Transmission Impacts of Potential Ameren Missouri Generation Resource Additions/Retirements & Power Purchases/Sales Cost Allocation Assumptions for Modeling Advanced Transmission System Technologies Ameren Missouri Affiliates Relationship Distribution Existing System System Inspection System Planning Peak Demand Reduction via Voltage Control System Efficiency Distributed Generation Advanced Distribution System Technologies Ameren Missouri s Smart Grid Plan Advanced Technology Investment Strategy Compliance References Chapter 7 - Appendix A Chapter 7 - Appendix B Chapter 8 - Demand-Side Resources 8.1 Implementation Plan Summary Introduction DSM Potential Study Ameren Missouri DSM Potential Study Portfolio Programs Page Integrated Resource Plan

7 Table of Contents Ameren Missouri Proposed Portfolio Programs Portfolio Overview DSM Portfolios Considered Evaluation Measurement and Verification (EM&V) Existing EM&V Model Proposed EM&V Model Stakeholder Considerations Outreach, Marketing and Communications The Planning Process Cost Effectiveness Defined New Web-Based Technical Reference Manual (TRM) Program Design Process Interactive Effects Demand Response Potential Definition(s) of Demand Response Ameren Missouri History of Implementation of Customer Demand Response Programs Ameren Missouri Capacity Position Market Prices for Capacity Demand Side Management Program Qualification to Participate in MISO Markets and Resource Adequacy Construct Determination of Realistic Achievable and Maximum Achievable Demand Response Potential Capacity Equivalence Demand Response Program Effective Useful Lives Peak Time Rebate (PTR) Programs FERC National Assessment of DSM Potential DR Potential Study Results Ameren Missouri DR Pilot Consideration for Targeted DSM Spring Forest Situation Analysis Distributed Generation and Combined Heat and Power Potential CHP Case Studies DG/CHP Technology Options DG/CHP Potential Demand-Side Rate Potential Approach Demand-Side Rate Potential Results Implementation Plan Overview Integrated Resource Plan Page 5

8 Ameren Missouri Table of Contents Timing Issues Associated with Proposed Plan Recommendation for Framework to Adjust MEEIA Cycle Program Designs Potential Uncertainty MEEIA Cycle Technical Reference Manual (TRM) R&D Issues that will Evolve from 2014 to Residential Light Program Design for Smart Thermostats Prepay LED Street Lights Small Business Direct Install (SBDI) Program Weekly Customer Usage Updates Electric Vehicles Compliance References Chapter 8 - Appendix A Chapter 8 - Appendix B Chapter 8 - Appendix C Chapter 9 - Integration and Risk Analysis 9.1 Alternative Resource Plan Attributes Capacity Position Pre-Analysis Planning Objectives Determination of Alternative Resource Plans Sensitivity Analysis Uncertain Factors Sensitivity Analysis Results Risk Analysis Risk Analysis Results Conclusions from Integration and Risk Analysis Resource Plan Model Compliance References Chapter 9- Appendix A Page Integrated Resource Plan

9 Table of Contents Ameren Missouri Chapter 10 - Strategy Selection 10.1 Planning Objectives Assessment of Alternative Resource Plans Scoring of Alternative Resource Plans DSM Portfolio Considerations Preferred Plan Selection Contingency Planning DSM Cost Recovery and Incentives Expansion of Distributed Generation Loss of Large Customer Load Incremental Wind Additions Greenhouse Gas Regulation Optionality for New Generation Resource Acquisition Strategy Preferred Plan Contingency Plans Expected Value of Better Information Analysis Implementation Plan Monitoring Critical Uncertain Factors Compliance References Chapter 10 - Appendix A Chapter 10 - Appendix B Chapter 10 - Appendix C Chapter 11 - Stakeholder Process 11.1 Stakeholder Group Stakeholder Workshop Stakeholder Comments on Draft Report Comments of Staff Comments of Sierra Club and NRDC Special Contemporary Issues Post-Filing Activities Integrated Resource Plan Page 7