Completion Drivers to Optimize $/BO(E) Leen Weijers Liberty Oilfield Services

Transcription

1 Completion Drivers to Optimize $/BO(E) Leen Weijers Liberty Oilfield Services

2 Completion Optimization Tools Big Data Visualization Big Data Statistics Calibrated Frac and Reservoir Modeling Completion Parameters Proppant Mass (lbs/ft) % Parameter Change 365-Day Cum Oil/Ft Production % Change % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Avg PPG (lbs/gal) % Parameter Change 365-Day Cum Oil/Ft Production % Change Frac Trends Physics-based MVA and Fraconomics Analysis Report

3 The Road to Happy Valley Minimizing $/BO(E) Well Cost ($), Cost per Barrel ($/BOE) Cost per Barrel ($/BOE) Well Cost ($) Happy Valley EUR NPV ($) Production (bbl) Time Time

4 Building a Statistical Analysis from Public Data For Dads Buying Their Kid a Car Multi-Variate Analysis (MVA) Car Price vs Year Built Car Price vs Mileage Poor model Better model mileage drives price! MVA Car Price Model: Car price = Constant + $350 * Year Built - $ * Mileage

5 Slide 5 PHYSICS-BASED MVA / ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OBJECTIVES Scoping tool for better economic completion design optimizations. Current MVA models use either multiple linear regression or neural network models, which may result in poor predictive capabilities beyond the range of existing data. The new concept is a hybrid approach that uses physics-based variable transformations to provide more realistic predictions, especially beyond the range of existing data. Economic optimization is realized with Cost $/BO(E) minimization.

6 NEW PHYSICS-BASED MVA APPROACH Slide 6

7 WILLISTON (CENTRAL) BASIN MIDDLE BAKKEN HORIZONTAL WELL PRODUCTION Slide Day Oil/Ft bubbles with Stabilized Water Cut Grid (Bubbles colored by 10 Top Operators, by well count) Continental Halcon Hess Newfield Nine Point Oasis Statoil Whiting XTO Zavanna Others

8 Slide 8 DEVELOPING PHYSICS-BASED PROXY FUNCTIONS Bakken Fracture Modeling Sensitivities (Height Growth Bias)

9 Slide 9 DEVELOPING PHYSICS-BASED PROXY FUNCTIONS Frac Modeling Reservoir Modeling

10 Slide 10 MIDDLE BAKKEN MVA with PHYSICS-BASED TRANSFORMED VARIABLES Completion Parameters Physics-Based MVA Model Production = c 1 WC% + + c 3 (ln(ft/stage))+ + c 5 (ln(lb/ft)).+ c n x n + d RMSE as % of Response Variable = 24% Model RMSE = 2.54 bbl/ft Cross Validation RMSE = 2.55 bbl/ft 0.3% error between RMSEs Observed 365-Day Cum Oil (bbl/ft) Predicted 365-Day Cum Oil (bbl/ft)

11 Slide 11 ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Minimize ratio of the total well cost to the cumulative one-year production (measured production). Cost model includes variable completion costs as well as fixed costs (drilling, logging, casing, cementing etc.) to arrive at approximate total well cost (Q estimates). Non-linear optimization algorithm in conjunction with the MVA model to minimize $/BO(E) by varying the completion parameters within appropriate constraints.

12 CENTRAL BASIN MIDDLE BAKKEN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Treatment Size and Average PPG (Design Type) Slide 12 Hybrid Design Uncertainty Window Watercut penalty for large-volume jobs Uncertainty Window Hybrid design equally feasible

13 CENTRAL BASIN MIDDLE BAKKEN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Stage Spacing Slide 13

14 CENTRAL BASIN MIDDLE BAKKEN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Slide 14 Optimum job size at 591 lbs/ft

15 Slide 15 CENTRAL BASIN MIDDLE BAKKEN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Parameter Optimum Values Central Basin Middle Bakken Averages Proppant Mass (lb/ft) Stage Length (ft/stage) Avg PPG (lb/gal) Rate (bpm) Total Well Cost ($) 7,433, % 6,169, day Cumulative Oil Production (bbl) 203, % 101,000 $/365-day BO % 61.09

16 The American Shale Revolution Williston Basin Financial Efficiency Parameter Unit 2012 Average* 2017 Average* Change Lateral Length ft % Stage Count % Stage Intensity ft/stage % Proppant Mass lbs 2,784,634 9,300, % Proppant Mass per Lateral Foot lbs/ft 309 1, % Fluid Volume bbl 58, , % Fluid Volume per Lateral Foot bbl/ft % Average Proppant Concentration PPG % Max Rate bpm % Max Rate per Lateral Foot bpm/ft/stage % 365-Day Cumulative Oil BO 85, ,700 75% 365-Day Cumulative Oil per Lateral Foot BO/ft % 365-Day Cumulative Oil Equivalent BOE 100, ,600 90% 365-Day Cumulative Oil Equivalent per Lateral Foot BOE/ft % Well Cost Million$ $10.7 $6.3-41% Cost per Barrel Oil Equivalent $/1-Year BOE $107 $36-66% Cost per Barrel Oil $/1-Year BO $126 $47-63% *Middle Bakken changes for the Williston Basin. 365-day production data for 2016 Technology changes result in higher production while Efficiency lowers production cost.

17 Conclusions The new hybrid physics-based multivariate regression models result in more realistic prediction of impact of certain completion parameters on production. Treatment size optimization is very sensitive to cost model, especially water acquisition and water disposal cost. Together, Operators and Service Providers have used Technology to improve Efficiencies, helping to lower well and completion cost. Technological changes continue as operators find better ways to minimize their $/BO(E)

18 ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION- COST MODEL Cost Model Item Cost/unit Proppant Costs Sand (lbs) 0.14 Ceramic Proppant (lbs) 0.25 Stage Costs PNP (per stage) HHP Spread Charge (per stage) Fluid Costs Chemicals ($/bbl) 1.66 (SW) / 2.90 (HYB) Water ($/bbl) 1.5 Diesel ($/bbl) 0.6 Disposal Costs Water ($/bbl) 1.5 Fixed Costs Other Well Costs $ 4,603,333 Slide 18

19 MIDDLE BAKKEN ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION Pump Rate Slide 19 Maximize Rate!

20 The American Shale Revolution Technology and Financial Efficiency

21 The American Shale Revolution Technology and Financial Efficiency