Towards a truly Sustainable Energy Supply

Transcription

1 Renewables in Europe: Towards a truly Sustainable Energy Supply Rainer Hinrichs- Rahlwes, Board Member BEE - German Renewable Energy Federa=on Ecosummit Berlin, 23 rd of March 2012

2 BEE - the German Renewable Energy Federa=on is the umbrella organiza=on of renewable energy in Germany, with 25 member associa=ons and organiza=ons represen=ng members, including enterprises. Our target: 100 % of renewable energy.

3 EU: New installed power capacity 2011: RES 45 GW (=71.3%) PV 21 GW (=47%)

4 20% by 2020 Europe can do more! EU- 27: Surplus of about 1% above the 2020 target 25 MS forecast to achieve or exceed their binding 2020 targets within na=onal borders Only Italy and Luxembourg plan to use CoopMex to meet binding 2020 targets According to the RES industry projec=ons, the EU- 27 could reach 24.4% Source: EREC_EU Roadmap

5 RES increase by sector (%) NREAP- ProjecGon: 21% RE in 2020 Industry- ProjecGon: more than 24% RE in 2020 RES-E % 42.3% RES-H&C RES-T % 21.3% % % Source: EREC based on the NREAPs

6 Energy Mix target will most likely be reached or exceeded 6

7 Progress Reports 2011 Reports about progress in 2010 were due end of 2011 à Only half of MS submiwed reports so far Trajectory seems to be exceeded à Most MS have reached or exceeded their indica=ve trajectories à Some (AT, LT, NL...) have even fallen below 2009 shares of RE Some NREAPs and/or support policies are under revision targets are revised downwards à Retroac=ve changes in 2011 (ES, CZ, UK...) à Revision discussed / planned in 2012 (ES, PT, EE, DE...) Framework revisions and target reducgons are disturbing investor confidence and risking target achievement à Clear commitment to targets indispensable à Perspec=ve towards 2030 and beyond is necessary 7

8 Analysis of 2011 Progress Reports Overall Share of RES in Final Energy ConsumpGon in 2009 in % Overall Share of RES in Final Energy ConsumpGon in 2010 in % AT Trajectory indicated in the NREAP for 2010 in % (Table 3) Binding Targets established by the 2009/28/ EC DirecGve in % BG DK DE EE FR IE IT LITH 19,96 19, NL 4,1 3, RO SL 18,99 19, SE 47,3 47, UK AT, DK, IE, NL are below their 2010 planned trajectory Source: EREC based on the 2011 Progress Reports

9 Renewables in Germany Renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in Germany ) Targets: Share in [%] Gross final energy consumption 2011: 12.2% ) : 20.1% ) Transport 2011: sector 10.4% : 5.4% ,2) : 10.8% Share of RES in total final energy consumption (electricity, heat, fuels) Share of RES in total gross electricity consumption Share of RES in total energy consumption for heat 0.4 Share of RES in fuel consumption for road traffic 2) Share of RES in total primary energy 3) consumption RES: Renewable Energy Sources; 1) Sources: Targets of the German Government according to Energy Concept, Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG) and EU-Directive 2009/28/EC; 2) Total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) Calculated using efficiency method; Source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.v. (AGEB); Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy Sources-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 2011; all figures provisional

10 The Challenge and the Chance (example from Germany) A comparison of load/demand with the amount of renewable electricity fed into the grid shows the contribu=on renewables can provide to supply security in 2007 and in 2020 and the related challenge for the grid system. SimulaGon 2007: 15 % RE (hourly resolugon) BEE- Scenario 2020: 47 % RE (hourly resolugon) 10

11 Market or Market? Energy markets are dominated by a few big companies à Implementa=on of EU- legisla=on has only just begun à Barriers against new market entrants have not been removed à Real unbundling of energy companies is not implemented Most externaliges are not included in energy prices à Nega=ve environmental, health, social impact not included à Nuclear risks are largely borne by public money à No effec=ve carbon pricing implemented (despite ETS) Market design favours the convengonal baseload supply à Tradi=onal baseload power is too cheap à Demand response elements hardly implemented anywhere à No incen=ves for storage & flexible produc=on and consump=on 11

12 Energy Roadmap 2050 (COM, Dec. 13, 2011) Moving towards Efficiency and switching to Renewables * Develop a vision for 2050 Delivering on decarboniza=on, security of supply and compe=veness * Discuss milestones (targets) for 2030 * Discuss new market design * Develop and assess different scenarios: - Reference Scenario - Current Policy Ini=a=ves Missing Scenarios: - 100% Renewables - No nuclear & delayed CCS (combined) - High efficiency & high Renewables - High Energy Efficiency - Diversified supply technologies - High Renewable energy sources - Delayed CCS - Low nuclear

13 Renewable Energy Strategy (beyond 2020) Public consultagon ungl 7 th of February A: General policy approach B: Financial support C: Administra=ve procedures D: Grid integra=on of electricity from renewable energy sources E: Market integra=on F: Renewables in Hea=ng and Cooling G: Renewables in transport H: Sustainability I: Regional and interna=onal dimensions J: Technology development à Stakeholder Conference in Brussels on 24 th of February CommunicaGon of the Commission announced for QII 2012 à Informal Energy & Environment Council (April 18 20) à planned topic: Council Conclusions on Energy Roadmap

14 The Way forward: AmbiGous implementagon of the RED and strong policies for renewables is key for future oriented growth. à Beware of downscaling ambi;on levels! Remove subsidies for unsustainable energy sources! à Beware of support for technologies of the past! NaGonal policies are key and have to be thoroughly checked à Beware of disturbing investor confidence! Develop real markets and a level playing field! à Beware of market distor;on and oligopolies! Adapt market design to renewable energy! à Beware of inflexible infrastructure and baseload capacity! NEXT STEP: à Do not hesitate to take unambiguous and clear decisions! Binding and ambigous renewable energy target for 2030

15 Moving to 2030 "With our roadmap we want to ensure that, for all parbcipants, there should be an interesbng discussion on binding targets for renewables by This should begin now and lead to a decision in two years' Bme". 15 th of December 2011, EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oeonger

16 BEE German Renewable Energy FederaBon, Reinhardtstraße 18, D Berlin, fon ev.de