SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHAHA

Transcription

1 CLIMATE DIPLOMACY DAY, 2015 ROAD TO PARIS SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHAHA WASCAL CSIR Office Complex, Accra Ghana 17 June :00 to 13:00 DR EMMANUEL TACHIE-OBENG Climate Change Unit, Ghana Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

2 LIST OF CONTENT Ghana as a party to UNFCCC Historical and projected climate Ghana s Levels of GHG emissions Climate Change impact Climate Change Response Opportunity for emission reduction International Negotiations and Ghana's Preparation to Paris

3 GHANA AS A PARTY TO UNFCCC Ghana joined the global community by signing the UNFCCCin June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro. Ghana ratified the Convention on 6 September 1995 The Convention entered into force specifically for Ghana on 5 December 1995 The Kyoto Protocol was opened for signature in March 1998 Ghana also ratifiedthe Kyoto Protocol on 26 November 2002 by Parliament and deposited the instruments for ratification in New York in March 2003 The Kyoto Protocol globally entered into force on 17 February 2005

4 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE Warming of about 1 C (0.3 C per decade) over past 3 decade have been recorded in Ghana Warming in Tmin (hot nights) is stronger in the Savanna zone (SZ) Highest warming coincided with the warmest portion (dry season) of the climatology Highest of about 2.1 C (0.7 C per decade) in March has already been on observed in the Transitional zone (TZ) Projected days with Tmax>40 Cthreshold would reach 1 day in TZ and as high as 12 days per month in SZ by 2050 from a control of 1 day in SZ and almost at zero in TZ Climatology/ C Change in Average Temperature per decade/ C Month Wa Wenchi Wa Wenchi Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin Tmax Tmin January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual mean

5 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE TEMPERATURE Projected scenarios have indicated Northern Ghana, Transitional zone, East Coast, South Western parts of the country could be warmest

6 HISTORICAL VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE RAINFALL SAVANNA ZONE Cycle of annual rainfall variability patternwith a dry period early 1950s, wet period in 1960s, then another dry period in 1970s and 1980s Recovery of the rainfall from 1990 to 2000s but has been less than 1960s averages - Recovery is more significant in the North General decline in rainfall from 1971 to 2000s with observed changes in distribution patterns Erratic rainfall increase by 4.3 mm (3.8%) and 17.5 mm (12.4% ) during May and June per decade Significant increase of 21 mm(10.7%) in total rainfall in August per decade High reduction in rainfall in dry season for the past 3 decades: November 6.8 mm (15.8%) -early cessation of rains) per decade and Shortened season observed

7 RAINFALL - TRANSITIONAL ZONE HISTORICAL OBSERVATION IN CLIMATE Significant decrease in nr>2 mm and nr>10 mm in Marchof 15.4% and 10% Erratic rainfall especially in April, May and June Decline total rainfall at the tail end of the major season in July (12.5%) Early cessation of rains in October (9.6%) Shortening of both major and minor cropping seasons Increase in frequency of nr>2 mm (14%) in August which tend to coincide with the harvesting period for the major season

8 PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE RAINFALL Uncertain rainfall scenarios into the future

9 LOW LEVELS OF GHG EMISSIONS WITH POTENTIAL TO GROW CONSIDERING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT TRAJECTORY Sectors & Sub-sectors Emissions MtCO 2 e % Change All Energy (combustion & fugitive) (1.A1,A2&A5) Stationery energy combustion (1.A5) Transport (1.B) Fugitive emission Industrial Process & Product Use AFOLU A Livestock B Land C. Aggregated and Non-CO emissions Waste Total emissions (excluding AFOLU) Total net emissions (including AFOLU)

10 PROJECTED FUTURE EMISSIONS BY Emissions (MtCO 2 e) BAU emission scenario Mitigation scenario

11 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS SENSITIVE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY Impacts and vulnerabilities in Ghana is generally influenced by geographical spread, gender, poverty levels, livelihoods, access to information etc.

12 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS SENSITIVE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY COCOA SECTOR

13 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT & COORDINATION

14 RESPONSE TO CC How? Seeks to protect its current levels of economic growth; Wary of economic impacts of both climate change; resulting in a focus on climate resilience. Mitigation is not a priority, but synergy will help to reduce adaptation cost Sustainable Development and adaptation are

15 CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE KEY POLICIES Ghana Shared Growth Development Agenda (GSGDAI & II) - Primary Development Planning Framework Ample references to climate change -Considers Climate change as development issue Serves as the umbrella policy for the -Ghana s National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) NCCP vision: to ensure a climate-resilient and climate compatible economy while achieving SD through equitable lowcarbon economic growth for Ghana

16 FOCUS OF NCCP Objectives: Effective adaptation, social development and mitigation Seven systemic pillars: (a) governance and coordination; (b) capacity building, (c) science, technology and innovation, (d) finance, (e) international cooperation (f) Information, communication and education and (g) monitoring and reporting

17 OTHERS MAINSTREAMING AND ADAPTATION A National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Technology Needs Assessment (Technology Action Plan) focus on adaptation technologies Ghana Plan of Action for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation ( ) by NADMO. National Development Planning System Act (Act 480) to guide mainstreaming of climate change to national, sector and district medium term plans. Local Government Act (Act 462) guides local governments (Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies) in budgeting for climate change activities in their annual budgets.

18 CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE Climate finance in Ghana is mainly project/programme based and dominated by donor funding. Institutional for mobilizing finance - NIE vrs MIE for GCF/AF National level funding green fund???? Ministry of Finance

19 CROSS-SECTION OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION REDUCTIONS

20 NEGOTIATIONS AND PREPARION TO COP21 IN PARIS - INDC? Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Global effort to put the world on a track towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient future; The international community has sets out to negotiate in Paris and come out with a global legally binding climate pact by 2015 through the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) -As a new international climate agreement (2015 Agreement) Where a single country (Party) in the world is expected to take certain level of commitmentthat will be originally determined by the Party as a contribution(national circumstances/ development Agenda); It is likely to come to force in 2020 after individual countries ratify the agreement at the national level;

21 Pre COP 21 THE PROCESS OF GHANA S INDC PREPARATION Concept Note & National Agenda Stakeholder meetings Brainstorming INDC Kick-off Workshop EOI & Recruitment of Consultants Core and Working Group Meetings Inception report Mid-term report Core Group Reviews Final report Capacity Building and Awareness Creation Campaign Consultation Technical, Political & Others National Processes- (Review by Line Ministries, Carbinet Endorsement and Disclosure)

22 THE PROCESS OF GHANA S INDC PREPARATION Post COP Outcome of COP 21 Review of Ghana s INDC Ratification of the Agreement Capacity Building of National Institution for Implementation of Mitigation and Adaptation Actions Streamline Technical Roles for MRV of the Contribution Actions

23 CHALLENGES Finance (Local and Donor) Capacity (Enhancement, Retention) Sensitization and awareness creation Mobilization of the private sector Mainstreaming (budget, etc.,) Research

24 Thank you for your attention! /