Global Energy and Environment Projections Next Steps

Transcription

1 Global Energy and Environment Projections Next Steps Ged Davis Co-President Global Energy Assessment International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis The National Academies Summit on America s Energy Future Washington D.C. 13 March 2008

2 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Increasing global air and ocean temperatures Rising global average sea level Reductions of snow and ice 2 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: November 2007

3 Climbing The Energy Ladder A Continuously Changing Relationship 3 GJ/capita Korea Malaysia China Thailand Brazil India EU US Australia Japan GDP/capita ( $ PPP) +$25k/capita: little extra energy needed. +$15k/capita: energy demand slows. +$10k/capita: industrialisation complete. +$3k/capita: industrialisation and personal mobility take off.

4 Increased temperatures from mid-20 th century very likely due to increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations 4 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: November 2007

5 IPCC SRES storylines 5 IPCC SRES

6 GHG emission projections imply climate changes very likely larger than seen in 20 th C in the absence of additional policies 6 IPCC 4 th Assessment Report: November 2007

7 Major impacts on water, ecosystems, food, coasts and health as global average temperature increases 7 IPCC 4 th AR Nov. 2007

8 Systems, sectors and regions especially affected by climate change Ecosystems: tundra, boreal forest, mountain regions; mangroves, salt marshes & coral reefs. Water resources: in some dry regions at midlatitudes and dry tropics Agriculture: in low latitudes Low-lying coastal systems: sea level rise Human health: those with low adaptive capacity Regions: Arctic, Africa, small islands, Asian and African megadeltas

9 What we are planning and what we need to do Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions 50 billion tonnes (Gt) Gt Reference Scenario 42 Gt 34 Gt Alternative Policy Scenario Target 450ppm 23 Gt 19% 45% In Alternative scenario, global emissions grow less than half as fast as in the Reference Scenario, stabilising in the 2020s. To reach 450 ppmv global emissions need to begin declining in coming few years. 9 WEO 2007, IEA

10 Options for stabilising CO 2 Emissions The 450 ppmv case Gt of CO Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Reference Scenario 27 Gt 450 ppmv Stabilisation Case 42 Gt CCS in industry CCS in power generation Nuclear Renewables Switching from coal to gas End Use electricity efficiency End Use fuel efficiency 23 Gt By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario WEO 2007, IEA

11 How much conventional oil is available? 11 Source: BP

12 Are there security risks? Oil Market Prospects Through 2015 Aggregate growth Source: BP

13 How to resolve the tough energy issues? Energy savings: much promised, less delivered Nuclear power development in developing countries and nuclear proliferation Tradeoffs between land use for biofuels and food, in context of water availability New energy plants and NIMBYism (an old issue in new forms) Division of labour between government energy R&D and private sector innovation Engineer large-scale system change, such as pervasive electric vehicles, hydrogen economy 13

14 Foresight and time horizons Energy & Environment Climate change/impacts 100/200 years Resources/new technologies 50/80 years Investment 25/35 years Policy/politics 5 years (Near term policies related to climate change/impacts; resources/new technologies and major public/private investments.) 14

15 Next Challenges in Foresight 100/200 years: finer-grained assessment of impacts, integrated environmental assessment and clarification of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies 50/80 years: national assessment and targets, e.g. 50 or 80% GHG reduction targets, impact of RD&D programs and pathways to sustainability 25/35 years: new security issues and resource constraints, energy links to food, trade & water, setting a C-tax or cap & trade targets, investment incentives for low carbon options, impacts on competitiveness Near term policies related to climate change/impacts; resources/new technologies and major public/private investments. 15

16 Ethics of Foresight Non-manipulative Framing (risks: spin, politics) Rigorous, peer-reviewed analytical Foresight (risks: poor or insufficient analysis) Deep ownership in Affirmation (risks: ego, no processes to achieve ownership) Strategically relevant Implications (risks: academic or irrelevant) New and valuable Options/Actions (risks: nothing new) Critical need for independent global assessments 16

17 Global Energy Assessment The magnitude of the change required in the global energy system will be huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses simultaneously climate change, security and equity issues. New thinking is needed: radical improvements in energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. Needs to be globally integrated but with maximum support of countries. In the best spirit of science: : fact-based and peer- reviewed 17