The energy system for Beautiful China 2050

Transcription

1 The energy system for Beautiful China 2050 Economic Growth The current Chinese energy system is Eco-environment unsustainable because it is not able to support economic growth without jeopardizing the ecological framework and the environment. Hence the foundation for the future development of China is too fragile fossil 237 Non fossil Fossil Energy Dominated Energy System Ecological civilisation Transformation to a green and low-carbon energy system together with a modern economic system will be a solid foundation for a sustainable Green and low-carbon energy system Modern economic system development towards a harmonic and ecological civilisation in 2050.

2 Economic growth and transformation to a green energy system In 2050 the GDP per person (RMB) is expected to be 3.8 times the GDP in with the same population of,38 billion people. As the same time, the energy consumption could stabilise and decline towards ,974 RMB/person 8,26 USD/person 204,348 RMB/person 30,765 USD/person Energy scenarios for the future Each year, China National Renewable Energy Centre, a think tank within Energy Research Institute under NDRC, prepares an China Renewable Energy Outlook with comprehensive scenarios for the future energy system in China. CNREC s China RE Outlook 207 has two scenarios, the Stated Policy scenario and the Below 2 C scenario. The Stated Policy scenario show how the Chinese energy system could develop when the current and planned policies are efficiently implemented. The Below 2 C scenario illustrates a development where China s CO 2 -emission is constrained to contribute to the Paris agreements targets. The scenarios show that it is possible to have a clean, secure and economic efficient energy system in 2050 with a lower energy consumption than today. Key benefits from green energy transition The air quality will be much better and comply with WHO-standards The CO2-emission will be drastically reduced in compliance with the Paris agreement The damage costs from pollution will be lowered The long-term cost of electricity will be at the same level as today and the fuel-costs will be significantly lower The investments in the energy sector create high-quality jobs in the global market for electric vehicles, solar PV, wind turbines and IT

3 energy consumption Total fossil fuels 3780 Total RE Hydro 45 Oil 798 Solar 3 Natural gas 279 Wind 30 Nuclear 63 Bioenergy energy consumption Stated Policies - Below 2 C Total fossil fuels Total RE Hydro Oil Solar Natural gas Wind Nuclear Bioenergy

4 Key development trends for an efficient energy system towards 2050 : The economic transformation The energy consumption in the industry sector is reduced substantial as the economic reform in China shifts the industry sector from heavy to light industry and services. The energy consumption in the building and the transport sector will increase due to higher urbanisation and more transport work. In the Below 2 C scenario the energy consumption in the transport sector is more efficient due to more electric vehicles. As a result, the total final energy demand is almost the same in 2050 as in ,0 2000,0 500, 0 000,0 500, 0 - Energy consumption in the end-use sectors Agr iculture Construction Industry Buildings Transport Stated P ol icies Below 2 C 2: Electrification The use of fossil fuels is to high extent replaced by electricity, especially in the industry and transport sectors. This increase the energy efficiency in end-use sector on top of the other energy efficiency measures introduced towards Final Energy Demand on fuels Heat RE Fossil fuels Other Below 2 C Stated Policies : RE becomes the back-bone of the energy system Adding to the efficiency gain in the enduse sectors, the power supply becomes more efficient because the thermal power plants are replaced by wind and solar power, which have no transformation losses. In 2050 renewable energy amounts 36% of the total primary energy demand in the Stated Policy scenario and 54% in the Below 2 C scenario Below 2 C Stated Policy Primary energy demand RE Nuclear Fossil fuels 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 00%

5 The energy flow The current energy system The current energy system is dominated by coal, mainly used in the industry and in power production. The transport sector is fuelled by oil products. The losses in the system are big, due to the conversion losses from coal to electricity. Natural Gas Heat 6 Energy flow chart ( ) Agriculture 57 Industry 95 Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Bio Other Construction Oil Transport Buildings 469 Oil Natural Gas Heat 2050 Stated Policy scenario In 2050 the coal consumption is significantly reduced, replaced by electricity in the industry sector and renewable energy in the power sector. The losses are reduced due to the more efficient power production from renewable energy. The transport sector is still dependent on oil-consumption Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Bio Geothermal Other Heat Energy flow chart Stated policies( ) Agriculture Industry Construction Oil Transport 242 Oil Buildings 976 Natural Gas Heat 2050 Below 2 C scenario Here the coal consumption is reduced even further and the consumption of renewable energy further increased. The electricity consumption is higher due to electrification of both the industry and transport sector. Consequently, the oil consumption is reduced. Natural gas do not play a significant role in the energy system, because renewable energy is a cheaper alternative. 534 Natural 58 Gas 34 Nuclear 224 Hydro Wind 855 Solar Bio 524 Geothermal Other Oil Heat Energy flow chart Below 2 C Agriculture Industry Construction Transport Oil Buildings 984 Natural Gas Heat

6 Environmental benefits The efficient use of energy and the shift from fossil fuels to electricity in the end-use sectors, together with the deployment of renewable energy in the power sector gives large environmental benefits. CO 2 -emission The CO2 emission will be reduced with 45% in the Stated Policy scenario and with 67% in thebelow 2 C scenario in The reduction is mainly due to reduction in coal consumption in the industry and power sectors Below 2 C CO 2 -emission Stated Policies From coal From crude oil From natural gas Mton Reduction of air pollution Most of the emission types causing air pollution will be significantly reduced towards 2050 in both scenario. Only NH3 emission will increase. The Below 2 dg C scenario is specially efficient in reduction of air pollution due to the combination of electrification in the end-use sectors and the large share of renewable energy in the power and district heating sector. Black Carbon PM2.5 CO SO2 NOX OC NMVOC NH Index for the reduction of air pollution from 200 to 2050 in the two scenarios.

7 Economic benefits Employment in the power sector by 2050 RE power direct RE power indirect Non-RE power direct Non-RE power indirect Below 2 C Scenario Stated Policies Scenario Million people Employment in the power sector by The jobs are mainly in renewables, directly in the power sector or indirectly in the RE manufacturing industry The energy transformation creates more efficent energy sector and new opportunities for the Chinese economy. Lower power sector costs The cost structure in the power sector changes from fuel costs to capital cost. In 2050 the power system costs per produced MWh is lower than the current costs. In the power system cost is 30 RMB/MWh, while in 2050 the costs are 29 RMB/MWH for the Stated Policies scenario and 282 RMB/MWh for the Below 2 C scenario. Greener economy The energy transition will strengthen the general transition of the Chinese Power system costs per MWh Stated policies 2050 Fuel cost Fixed O&M Capital costs Below 2 Variable O&M Start-up costs economy from 20 Century to 2 Century industries without lowering the GDP. The jobs in the power sector will change from fossil fuels to renewable energy jobs, but the level of jobs will be the same as for the power sector today. The energy transition will support the development of the strategic emerging industries in China. The huge investments in solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles in China will create jobs and economic growth and also help China to maintain or become global market leaders. Development of installed capacity for solar PV and wind power and the number of electric vehicles in China, which gives strong stimulus for developing the strategic emerging industries Solar PV capacity Wind power capacity Passenger EV's GW GW Millions

8 Status Stated Policies Scenario Below 2 Degree Scenario Unit Total Primary Energy Supply* /year /year Crude oil /year Natural Gas /year Nuclear /year Renewable energy Hydro /year Wind /year Solar /year Bio (solid, liquid, gaseous) /year Geothermal /year Other /year Total Final Energy Demand /year /year Oil Products /year Natural Gas /year Solar /year Bio (solid, liquid, gaseous) /year Geothermal /year /year Heat /year Other /year Total installed power capacity GW Renewable capacity GW Hydropower (excl. pumped hydro) GW Wind GW Biofuels (solid, liquid, gaseous) GW Solar PV GW CSP GW Geothermal GW Marine, other GW Nuclear GW Fossil fuels GW Total electricity generation TWh Renewable generation TWh Hydropower TWh Wind TWh Biofuels (solid, liquid, gaseous) TWh Solar PV TWh CSP TWh Geothermal TWh Marine, other TWh Nuclear TWh Fossil fuels TWh CO2 emission Mton/year CO2 per capita ton/capita * Calculated using the calorific energy value for renewable energy, not the coal substitution method as in the national statistics