San Francisco Bay Region

Transcription

1 LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTING Resilient Coastal City Regions Urban Planning Risk Management Disaster Recovery Planning for Climate Change in the United States and Australia San Francisco Bay Region Laurie A. Johnson Laura Tam

2 San Francisco Bay Region 7,000 square miles Bay 550 square miles 7.1 million people (8 million by 2020; 12 million by 2050) 3 million buildings ($1 trillion value) 9 counties cities Major port and economic center Mediterranean climate Variable temperatures (Cooler near coast) Rain fall decreases on a north south gradient Spectacular natural beauty Biodiversity hotspot

3 Anticipated Statewide Climate Changes Temperature F increase F increase Precipitation 12 35% decrease Sea Level Rise inches Source: CNRA (2008) Not available inches Source: USGS (2008)

4 California Economic Damage and Asset Risk to Climate Change, 2006 Damage Cost/Year ($ billions) Low High Assets at Risk ($ billions) Water N/A Energy Tourism and recreation Real estate (water exposed) Real estate (fire exposed) ,600 Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Transportation N/A N/A 500 Public Health N/A Total ,237 Source: Kahrl and Roland-Hoist (2008)

5 Government Mandate Milestones in California Climate Adaptation Strategy Policy 2002 Senate Bill 1078 Renewable Portfolio Standard Method Electricity providers must increase purchases of renewable energy resources by 1%/year until attached 20% of resources used 2006 California Solar Initiative Program Assembly Bill 32 Global Warming Solutions Act 11 year incentive program for domestic and industrial solar power development Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 level by 2020 (25% below forecast levels). Compliance to monitor and report 2008 Senate Bill 375 Requires regions to develop growth strategies that align transportation funding with housing needs to reduce GHG emissions Executive Order #S Prepare California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CNRA 2009) to identify and prepare for climate impacts, across 7 sector work-groups and 12 agencies

6 Sea Level Rise Golden Gate tidal gauge: 8 inch rise in past 100 years Portions of Bay-Delta margins already subsided 13 to 25 feet State of California s Scenarios Project (CNRA 2009) Up to 18 inches by 2050 Up to 55 inches by 2100 Source: San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) (2008) Flood risk (Pacific Institute 2009): Current flood risk (1% annually) $30.8 billion 55 inch sea level rise: $64.3 billion ; 276,000 residents at risk

7 Capital Costs for Levees to Prevent Flooding from Sea Level Rise in Northern California (Pacific Institute, 2009) County Raise Levee (miles) New Levee (miles) New Seawall (miles) Total (miles) Capital Cost ($ million) Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma Total ,270

8 State and Regional Responses State s Climate Adaptation Strategy direction to state/local agencies: Avoid permitting or siting new development in vulnerable areas CEQA review considerations Update general plans and local coastal plans Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC): Detailed mapping, research, and planning recommendations Update San Francisco Bay Plan Rising Tides Competition (2009) part of public education (CNRA 2009) Source: Skidmore, Owings & Merrill; BCDC (2010)

9 State and Regional Responses Delta Risk Management Strategy Seismic risk, high-water conditions, sea level rise, and land subsidence Risk of multiple levee failures, flooding 20 islands, economic costs exceeding $15 billion 3 risk reduction scenarios (3 feet of additional subsidence by 2100; 300-year level of seismic protection; peripheral canal) 2009 State Legislature passed Delta water package and $700 million allocated annually Bay Delta Conservation Plan under development $11 billion bond measure on November 2012 ballot Source: California Dept of Water Resources (CDWR) (2009)

10 Local Responses (San Francisco Urban Planning and Research Association, 2011) Seven planning strategies for sea level rise: Barriers and tidal barrages Coastal armoring Elevated development Floating development Floodable development Living shorelines Managed retreat

11 Local Responses (Treasure Island Community Development, LLC)

12 Local Responses (Redwood City Saltworks Redevelopment Project; Cargill Inc.)

13 Lessons, Issues, and Next Steps State-wide policy framework to address both climate change mitigation and adaptation already developed, and implementation has begun Critical gaps that need to be addressed: Legal and regulatory toolkit for key agencies (BCDC, Coastal Commission) to manage climate change effects Integrated governance in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Local agency tools to mitigate climate hazards by amending zoning or designating special districts, as well as sustained sources of funding and potential technical assistance Ecological migratory paths delineated and protected Financing and technical support for basic science and modeling