Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets

Transcription

1 International workshop on Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India September 2011 Pep Canadell*, Prabir Patra *CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra, Australia

2 Why Regional Carbon Budgets? 1. To provide higher spatial resolution of the global carbon balance with the aim to improve attribution to processes and hot-spots regions essential to understand the future evolution of the carbonclimate feedback.

3 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ±0.9 PgC y ±0.1 PgC y -1 47% 0.9±0.6 PgC y PgC y -1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 2.4±0.5 PgC y -1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

4 Regional Net CO 2 and Sources Atmospheric CO 2 Inversions - TransCom Gurney et al. 2011, Tellus

5 South Asia Seasonal Net CO 2 Flux From atmospheric CO 2 inversions (TransCom) Prabir Patra, TransCom, unpublished

6 Australian Annual Net CO 2 Flux From atmospheric CO 2 inversions (TransCom) Rachel Law, TransCom, unpublished

7 Why Regional Carbon Budgets? 1. To provide higher spatial resolution of the global carbon balance with the aim to improve attribution to processes and hot-spots regions essential to understand the future evolution of the carbonclimate feedback. 2. To address a growing demand for a capacity to Measure, Report, and Verify (MRV) the evolution of regional fluxes and the outcomes of climate mitigation policies.

8 Monitoring and Reporting Carbon Reductions e.g., REDD Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Tracking Vegetation Carbon in the Amazon Only 3% of tropical countries have the capacity to monitor and report changes in forest cover and C stocks (e.g., Panama) Asner et al 2010, PNAS; Archer et al. 2011, ERL

9 Why Regional Carbon Budgets? 1. To provide higher spatial resolution of the global carbon balance with the aim to improve attribution to processes and hot-spots regions essential to understand the future evolution of the carbonclimate feedback. 2. To address a growing demand for a capacity to Measure, Report, and Verify (MRV) the evolution of regional fluxes and the outcomes of climate mitigation policies. 3. To support regions to further develop the technical capacity to synthesize their carbon balances and enhance observations.

10 Why Regional Carbon Budgets? 1. To provide higher spatial resolution of the global carbon balance with the aim to improve attribution to processes and hot-spots regions essential to understand the future evolution of the carbonclimate feedback. 2. To address a growing demand for a capacity to Measure, Report, and Verify (MRV) the evolution of regional fluxes and the outcomes of climate mitigation policies. 3. To support regions to further develop the technical capacity to synthesize their carbon balances and enhance observations. 4. To respond to the Group on Earth Observations (EOS) in establishing a global carbon observatory to track the evolution of natural and anthropogenic carbon sources and sinks.

11 REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) To establish the mean carbon balance of large regions of the globe at the scale of continents and large ocean basins, including their component fluxes. To do it by comparing and reconciling multiple bottom-up estimates with the results of regional top-down atmospheric inversions, with attribution to main flux components. To evaluate the regional hot-spots of interannual variability and possibly the trends and underlying processes over the past two (or more) decades by combining available long-term observations and modeling.

12 Principle of RECCAP Multiple Constraints to Understand One Carbon Budget Top-down Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models + ghg observations Ocean and Land air observations Aircraft & tall towers Atmospheric inversions Others Bottom-up Regional Carbon Balance Land, Ocean models + Observations (in situ + remote sensing) Eddy flux Forest inventories Soil inventories Riverine C Lake accumulation Wood products Fire Emissions Volatile C Others

13 The Carbon Cycle Mass Balance Closure

14 Components of Regional Syntheses Tier 1 Global Products Regional fluxes Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) Regional Carbon Balance Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) + Regional cuts from global data products Tier 1 model outputs are coordinated by RECCAP

15 Components of Regional Syntheses Tier 1 Tier 2 Global Products Regional-Specific Products Regional fluxes Atmospheric CO 2 Inversion Models TransCom (Low resolution) + Global Obs. Network + Regional application Atmospheric CO 2 Inversions Model (High resolution) + Regional ghg obs. Regional Carbon Balance Regional cuts from global land & ocean models (Low resolution) Regional cuts from global data products Regional specific Models (continental, ocean basin, biome, land use change, others) Regional specific observations (fluxes, pco 2, remote sensing, forest inv., others) Tier 1 model outputs are coordinated by RECCAP

16 Synthesis Approach Top-down Bottom-up Reconciliation of flux estimates (independently assessed and often partially overlapping) as a means to build confidence in our understanding of the component fluxes, mean estimates, and inter-annual variability. Although we are ultimately interested in building a mathematically-formalized multiple constraint approach, model data fusion or data assimilation (eg, like in weather and hydrological forecast), we are not pursuing this approach in a first phase. Uncertainties need to be quantitatively estimated.

17 Global Tier 1 Products 10 Atmospheric CO 2 inversions 5 Ocean forward models RECCAP ( ) 1 Ocean inversion 7 Terrestrial models (DGVMs) 1 NEP-flux empirical model 1 Fire emissions product 1 Land use change emissions 1 Rivers fluxes to oceans 1 Embedded fluxes in international trade

18 Which GHGs? Species: Minimum requirement: CO 2 Additional: CH 4 (N 2 O, others) Spatially explicit: Minimum requirement: Biological fluxes of CO 2 (CH 4, N 2 O, others) Additional: Fossil Fuel emissions

19 RECCAP Period Variable but centered around: Budget period:» Trend analyses:»land: »Ocean:

20 Land L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6 L7 L8 L9 L10 Land and Ocean Regional Syntheses Africa Arctic tundra Australia Europe North America Russia South America East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia RECCAP Oceans O2 O3 O4 O5 Pacific Atlantic and Arctic Southern Ocean Indian

21 Regional Masks

22 Schulze et al 2009, Nature Geosciences GHG Balance of Europe

23 Carbon Balance of North America NACP 2008

24 Piao et al. 2009, Nature Carbon Balance of China Land Example

25 Han Dolman, unpublished, 2011 Mean Carbon Budget of Russia ( )

26 Northern Hemisphere Carbon Sink Top down 1.7±0.9 PgC yr Bottom up PgC yr Ciais et al. 2011, COSUST

27 Global Assessments Fossil fuel emissions RECCAP ( ) Land use change emissions Global atmospheric budget Global ocean surface CO 2 Global ocean storage Coastal Ocean Rivers fluxes Embedded fluxes in international trade

28 Global Syntheses of Syntheses Ch-S1 Ch-S2 Ch-S3 Ch-S4 Ch-S5 Comparison of top & bottom up Inter-annual var. region. Attribution to regional processes Past and future trends in regional C budgets Final recommendations RECCAP ( )

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