Global Scale Initiative Progress over the Last 2 Years

Transcription

1 Global Scale Initiative Progress over the Last 2 Years Briefing to the SSC by Charles J. Vörösmarty 17 October 2009, Stellenbosch

2 Programme implementation Programme Implementation The GWSP Initiatives SPECIAL INTERESTS Climate change Governance & Adaptation Strategies 1. Global Scale Initiative: Ranking of threats to the GWS, States and Trajectories of Change 2. Global Catchment Initiative: Bringing the global perspective to river basin research & management 3. Global Water Needs: Humans and nature Balancing goals and needs Simulation modelling & scenarios Observations & Indicators METHODS & TOOLS Policy Outreach & Capacity Building

3 Rationale for Global Scale Centrality of water in the Earth system and in Global Environmental Change Tradition of local-scale perspectives have bound water studies in the past Major uncertainties in both biogeophysical quantities and governance global scale.yet to be explored We have the capabilities and opportunity to address the issue head-on The G in GWSP

4 THE OVERARCHING GOAL: - Quantify the State-of-the-Global Water System based on sound physical, biological, chemical, and social perspectives with TWO SUPPORTING APPLICATIONS: 1. Provide to scientists and policymakers the definitive ( authoratative ) global water resource assessment based on Earth system science principles, both now and into the future 2. Establish the rates, agents, and consequences of change to the GWS

5 THE OVERARCHING QUESTION: - What is the State-of-the-Global Water System defined by physical, biological, chemical, and social perspectives and their combination? with TWO SUPPORTING QUESTIONS: 1. What is the global freshwater resource base and its limitations, now and into the future? 2. What is the collective, systematic, and globalscale significance of changes unfolding within the GWS? plus many more focused Qs

6 THE OVERARCHING GOAL: State-of-the-Global Water System Application 1: A Definitive ESS-based Global Water Resource Assessment Application 2: Global Water System Change and Its Significance Powered by GWSP Data Sets, Models, Thematic Activities Outside Affiliates and Demands of the Users

7 GSI Applications 1&2: Integrated Approaches to Global Water Resource Assessment and Global Change Studies Links Geophysics of H20, Governance, Vulnerability, Supply Limitation Imposed by Pollution, Ecosystem Flow Requirements External Data (e.g. NASA, ESA, JAXA) Meta-data & Link Archive GWSP ATLAS Internal Geospatial Archive GWSP Models And Indicator Generators Evaluate & Improve Integrative Value-added Outputs

8 Main Product: Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) Database Major Effort to Upgrade and Harmonize a Major Data Base Depicting Human Impacts on Fresh Water --Example of Georeferencing-- US. National Inventory of Dams Data exported to Google Earth River Networks, SWBD Data, and NID in ArcGIS 8 Chief Partners: GWSP, World Wildlife Fund, Nature Conservancy, participating university representatives

9 Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD) Database Currently ~ 7000 dam locations referenced to SWBD polygons and HydroSHEDS river network ~ 2600 reservoirs 100 Mio. m 3 Total storage capacity ~ 6000 km 3 (>80% of world total)

10 State-of-the-GWS to be defined using integrated S&T assets: Data bases and data management tools (e.g. GWSP Atlas, Global-RIMS) Operational data products and data assimilation schemes (e.g. NWP, NASA & ESA products, NASA-NEWS State-of-the Hydrosphere, WMO centers) Models (e.g. current generation WWBM s from intercomparison, next gen.interactive GWS models) Thematic analyses (e.g. EcoHydrology mapping exercise, Virtual Water Trade, ESSP-CG, Evaluation of Ecosystem Services, GWSP-LOICZ Deltas and Pollution Modeling, Global Governance Assessment)

11 Objective 1: A definitive ESSbased global water assessment Rationale: Decided need for ongoing assessment in light of climate and other changes No systematic framework for evaluating the physical, biogeochemical, biological, and social state of the resource base Thus ongoing frustration in developing trackable indicators of the resource

12 Objective 1: The definitive ESSbased global water assessment Major Products: High quality ESS-based analysis of contemporary FW resource base and aquatic ecosystem services, tracked year-by-year using operational data sets and models to be routinely delivered --as data and reports-- to UN WWAP, IPCC, and other assessment consumers A surveillance & early warning system for contemporary hotspots -- a GEOSS prototype Future forecasts Advice to policymakers on potential interventions Training in ESS-based water assessment: IHE, in-country

13 GTN-H Provides Rich Set of Information Streams for Many Applications Soil moisture In-situ Soil Moisture Network (planned); SMOS Ground water* IGRAC Lake level/area* HYDROLARE / GTN-L Water vapour* Water quality / BGC fluxes GEMS/Water Water use* FAO/AQUASTAT Global Terrestrial Network Hydrology (GTN-H) "Network of Networks" WMO WWW River discharge* GRDC / GTN-R Isotopic Composition IAEA / GNIP Evapotranspiration FLUXNET Snow cover* Glaciers and ice caps* NSIDC WGMS / GTN-G Precipitation* GPCC GPCP NCDC / GSN

14 Themed Approach e.g. Hydrologic Extremes (e.g. flood) Monitoring and Assessment Soil moisture In-situ Soil Moisture Network (planned); SMOS Ground water* IGRAC Lake level/area* HYDROLARE / GTN-L Water vapour* Water quality / BGC fluxes GEMS/Water Water use* FAO/AQUASTAT Global Terrestrial Network Hydrology (GTN-H) "Network of Networks" WMO WWW River discharge* GRDC / GTN-R Isotopic Composition IAEA / GNIP Evapotranspiration FLUXNET Snow cover* Glaciers and ice caps* NSIDC WGMS / GTN-G Precipitation* GPCC GPCP NCDC / GSN

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16 Objective 2: GWS Change and Its Significance Rationale: Pandemic change has been noted but the geography of threats not well-established Notion of identifying feedbacks, thresholds, surprises in the Earth system guides the ESS community--we can contribute to this imperative Changes will have substantial impacts on human well-being and ecosystem services

17 Objective 2: GWS Change and Its Significance Major Products: The Catalogue of GWS Change First global geography, ranking, and interpretation of water system change Surveillance and early warning system for contemporary hot-spots of stress & change Future forecasts Advice to policymakers on potential interventions

18 Some Chief Findings Syvitski et al., Nature Geosciences, in review Confirms: Numerous deltas sinking Chief cause: landward activities, not SLR, confirming Ericson et al. (2006) 100 s of millions at potential risk

19 DEFINE WATERSHED STATE BASED ON LOCAL AND RECURSIVE INDICES GOOGLE AND OPEN MAP SERVERS MAP SYSTEM STATES OVER MULTI-SPACE & TIME SCALES Threat score Biodiversity Threat

20 Some observations The two applications are fundamentally integrative, inter-d, and global in scope Are capitalizing on many of the already established GWSP activities require different but complementary approaches are unique and awaited by the community Partnerships will be many (ESSP, GEWEX-HAP, WWAP, IPCC, UNESCO-IHP, IHE, Private Sector,..)

21 Next Steps Continue WWAP liaison / support activities State Product (Pilot Study on Indicators), National Water Accounts (UN Statistical Division) Continue GTN-H coordination w/ WMO Continue IGBP-LOICZ effort on deltas, focusing on sources of risk from freshwater management Continue GWSP-DIVERSITAS Threat Mapping, engage IPBES Workshops on all of these Bundled products for Atlas