CLIMATE CHANGE AND CAPE TOWN: WHAT KEEPS ME AWAKE AT NIGHT? UCT SUMMER SCHOOL

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND CAPE TOWN: WHAT KEEPS ME AWAKE AT NIGHT? UCT SUMMER SCHOOL Helen Davies Environmental Management Department 25 January 2017

2 Outline Framing the policy: projected climatic changes & impacts and energy & emissions picture Climate change policy approach Implementation to date What keeps me awake at night? Closing the gap 2

3 Framing the policy: projected climatic changes & impacts and energy & emissions picture

4 Most likely projected climatic changes Cape Town 4

5 Future impacts of changing climate on Cape Town 5

6 Future impacts of changing climate on Cape Town 6

7 Cape Town's contributions to global anthropogenic climate change Between 2001 and 2012 Source: Cape Town State of Energy 2015 Total energy consumption growth 26,8% Annual average energy consumption growth rate 2.18% Average annual population growth rate 2.6% Average annual economic growth rate 4% Current fuel sources GHG emissions per capita (energy only, all fuels) (tco2e/capita) 2007: 7, : 5,55 Liquid fuel Electricity (mirrors national mix) Fuel imports Eskom coal-based 91% Eskom nuclear based 4% Renewable energy (REIPPP) 5% 7

8 Cape Town's contributions to global anthropogenic climate change Carbon emissions by sector, Cape Town, 2012* Carbon emissions by energy source, Cape Town, 2012* GHG emissions per capita (energy only, all fuels) (tco2e/capita) 2007: 7, : 5,55 8

9 Climate change policy approach

10 City s climate change policy approach socio-economic issue - environmental consequences already feeling impacts natural environment & resource efficiency build resilience /3 world's population in cities work differently & collaboratively lagged effect of GHG emissions potential opportunities 10

11 Levers City s climate change policy approach cont. ADAPTATION Prepare for change at local level to reduce risks & build adaptive capacity MITIGATION Contribute to global efforts to reduce GHG emissions Spin offs: Improved quality of life Sustainable development Long term fiscal efficiency Spin offs: Improved energy security Reduced costs Improved air quality Own operations Influencing others Planning Fiscal reform Legislation Stimulating green economy Pricing Ecological infrastructure & EBA Awareness raising Networks City not a bubble 11

12 Implementation to date

13 Adaptation projects Transport Infrastructure & networks at risk Sustainable design and construction of roads South Peninsula Transport Corridor risk assessment & intervention Spatial planning Framework of Resource Efficiency Criteria for Development in the City of Cape Town Integration of climate change into Integrated Development Plan (IDP) Water Water conservation and water demand management programme Feasibility studies for alternative water supplies 13

14 Adaptation projects cont. Human settlements Incorporating national building standards incl. adaptation measures into human settlements Biodiversity City s Local Biodiversity Strategy & Action Plan & BioNet Invasive species unit Atlantis land bank 14

15 Adaptation projects cont. Stormwater & disaster management Modelling flooding & sea level rise impacts for Salt River and Eastern catchments Increased stormwater pipe diameter WSUD principles Cape Town SDF & Urban Design Policy Ecosystem based adaptation Flood risk reduction plan for all informal settlements Coastal management Integrated Coastal Management Policy and Plan Coastal setback lines Coastal Protection Zone Bylaw Coastal overlay zones Greenways Golf Estate coastal erosion Glencairn railway line revetment study 15

16 Mitigation projects City building energy efficiency retrofits City street light energy efficiency retrofits Rooftop PV installations & feed in tariffs Fleet greening own cars & MiCiti 16

17 Mitigation projects cont. SWH supplier accreditation programme Electricity savings campaign Commercial energy efficiency forum Low cost housing ceiling retrofits 17

18 Mitigation projects cont. Darling Wind Farm & Atlantis Special Economic Zone to support Greentech companies Waste to energy projects Framework of Resource Efficiency Criteria for Development in City of Cape Town Transport Oriented Design & Travel Demand Management Plan 18

19 International networks & commitments City role Value add? Covenant of Mayors National networks Durban Adaptation Charter 19

20 What keeps me awake at night?

21 How do we fundamentally change how we work to catalyse action at scale and with urgency? i.e. transformative change MIND THE GAP People Technology / approaches Finance Networks 21

22 People: We all view the world with different lenses Which word do you see 1 st? Have to make the time to understand others challenges & collectively find solutions 22

23 People: Understanding uncertainty Is climate change real? Rather Timing of change when? Magnitude of change how big? Change in frequency how often? Use of scenario planning & narratives 23

24 People: Managing in the face of uncertainty Understand change management Build networks & relationships Access technical support Cost benefit analyses LT approach Examples from elsewhere networks Resilience = good development 24

25 Technology & approaches Untested vs. tested Financial management frameworks Fear of white elephants Life cycle costing Retrofit vs. replace when obsolete

26 Finance: City budgets City budget City budget?

27 Finance: City budgets cont. City budget City budget Vs.

28 Finance - options Upfront questions: buffer to absorb shocks spending to save? preventative vs reactive? who has what mandate / responsibility? how to prioritise? what tradeoffs? use of existing budgets (City and National): more efficient, reshuffle changes informed by CBA and policy alignment external funding reveune, grants, loans, green bonds

29 Networks City co-dependent Civil society Academia Business Industry Educators NGOs Risks Adaptive capacity Strengths / mandates Roles Other spheres of government

30 Closing the gap 1. Bring everyone along 2. Enable innovation 3. Develop & use alternative forms of financing 4. Only possible in collaboration with others

31 Thank You For queries contact (insert