US Air Quality Forecasting Program Research, Transition, Operation and Socio-Economic Benefits

Transcription

1 US Air Quality Forecasting Program Research, Transition, Operation and Socio-Economic Benefits Pai-Yei Whung Associate Director of Wx and Air Quality Office of Weather and Air Quality USA GURME AQF Workshop, October

2 NOAA Mandates Mandated by US Senate Energy Bill 2002 Senate H.R.4 Energy Policy Act (S.517, SA 1383); Forecasts and warnings-the Secretary of Commerce, through the Administration of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shall, in order of priority as listed in section (3) establish a program to provide operational air quality forecasts and warnings for specific regions of the United States NOAA s mission includes describing and predicting changes in the Earth's environment, providing environmental information needed by policy makers, integrating environmental stewardship, and economic development. As air quality forecasts are statements that protect the lives of American citizens, it is part of NOAA s mission.

3 US AQ Forecasting Program Vision Provide the Nation, individuals and decision-makers, with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives and to ensure the sustainable economic opportunities The ultimate goal of the Program is to deliver to the nation 5-day, hourlyresolved forecasts of ozone (O 3 )and particulate matter (PM)

4 Socio-Economic Impacts More than 60,000 deaths each year in the US caused by high levels of particulate matter (Science, 2000) Approximately $150 B health cost each year in the US related to air pollution (The American Lung Association) Estimated $2.4 B agricultural crop loses due to high levels of ozone (J. Air Pollution Control Assoc., 1989) 97% of children living within 30 miles of at least one plant is at risk of asthma, neurological disorders and other health problems (Maryland Public Interest Research Group, 2002)

5 US AQ Forecasting Program User Needs and Benefits User Needs-Forecast Products Ozone (O 3 ) and Particulate Matter (PM) Applications/Users Health Alerts Decision Makers (O 3 Action Day, AQ Managers, Homeland Security, Smoke Management) Industry and Energy Sector/Private value-added and industry Tourist outlooks Benefits Reduce mortality and health care costs Improve aviation safety Assist management planning (O 3 Action Day) Maximizing the energy operation management while minimizing the air quality impact Baseline for evaluating WMD releases Planning for prescribed burns to meet air quality standards Minimize economic impact from lost tourism

6 Existing US AQ Forecasting Activities Federal Agencies DoC-NOAA Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Park Service (NPS) USDA - US Forest Service Department of Defense (DoD) Universities States and Local Private Sector

7 Partnership Interagency Collaboration CENR Air Quality Research Subcommittee (AQRS) Private-Public Partnership Partner with value-added companies Media Commercial sector Research Community Air quality forecasting model (i.e. Weather Research Forecast model) development and implementation

8 PARTNERSHIPS IN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING NOAA > Develop and evaluate tools for national/state/local air quality forecasting > Provide operational air quality forecast concentration field and products with national coverage EPA > Maintain current national emissions inventory > Maintain national air quality monitoring databases > Interpret national air quality forecast information - AQI and links to public health STATES / LOCALS > Provide state/local emissions data > Provide state/local air quality monitoring data > Provide local air quality forecasts (also private sector may provide forecasts) PUBLIC and COMMERCIAL SECTORS

9 US AQ Forecasting Program Requirements (End-to-End) Research Observations (physics and chemistry) Data Assimilation and Modeling Process Studies Techniques Transition Validation and Verification Enabling Technology Training Operation (24/7) Dissemination

10 US AQ Forecasting Program Research Requires multi-disciplinary science integration (meteorology, air chemistry, physics, emission inventory, observation, modeling, evaluation, etc.) Build upon the next generation US operational weather forecast model (Weather Research Forecast model, WRF)

11 Research Atmospheric Observations Meteorology and chemistry 3-D Air Quality Forecast Modeling Couple meteorology, photochemical and emission inventory models (MM5-Chem, MAQSP-RT, HYSPLIT) Evaluation and Verification of Forecasts User Products FX-Net Process Studies Boundary layer physics, chemical transformation Data Assimilation Validate Emission Inventory

12 Air Quality Forecasting Transition Critical Decision Path Research and Development Observing Network (Real-Time) Training Module Development Data Center Development, Test and Evaluation DTE Center in Boulder (NOAA and NCAR) Communication IT, Computer, Public Outreach

13 US Operational Air Quality Forecasting Emission Inventories from EPA Air Quality Data from S/L Agencies EPA Data Management Center NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction Weather Service Providers Ozone Movies / Forecasts on the AIRNOW Website Forecast Pollutant Concentration Fields Media City-specific AQI forecasts State/Local Air Agencies

14 US Air Quality Forecasting Timeline* *coordinated with WRF schedule Research/Prototype Pre-Operational Development Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E) Operational 1-day PM 1-day PM 1-day PM V&V 1-day O 3 Matrix 1-day O 3 :NE 1-day O 3 : NE IOC NE extend to EUS 1-day O 3 : Nation FY

15 US AQ Forecasting Program FY03, FY04 and Beyond FY2003 Verification of ozone emission inventory (OAR) ETA-CMAQ (OAR-NWS) Infrastructure (NWS) WRF-Chem (OAR) Development, test and evaluation (OAR, EPA, NWS, NCAR) Partnership building (NOAA, EPA, states, private sector) * Proposed budget

16 US 2004 ETA-CMAQ Model System for AQ Forecasts ETA is NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) operational mesoscale forecast model U.S. nationwide meteorological forecasts at 12km grid resolution, 4x per day To create operational AQ forecast system, ETA model will be linked to CMAQ model as the meteorological driver Linked model system ready for testing- Early 2004

17 US AQ Forecasting Program: FY03, FY04 and Beyond FY2004 Transition to operation (NWS-OAR) Initial operational 36-hr ozone forecast in NE (NWS) Verification and validation forecast results (OAR-NWS) WRF-Chem (NOAA and others) Chemical data assimilation * Proposed budget

18 US AQ Forecasting Program: FY03, FY04 and Beyond FY2005 Develop particulate matter (PM) forecast capability Extend the operational ozone forecast to include central US Prototype 36-hr WRF-Chem (ozone) Chemical data assimilation FY2006-FY2007 Operational nationwide 36-hr ozone forecast and PM forecast in NE Operational 36-hr WRF-Chem based ozone forecast FY2012 Operational nationwide 60-hr ozone and PM forecast

19 Socio-Economic Application NOAA NE Energy Program Improved T o Forecast Obs. Network High-resolution Model Forecast Time-resolved Ozone Forecast 36-hr O 3 Forecast Hourly-resolved Environmental & Economic (E 2 ) Strategy

20 Nature of the NE Energy Program Use the environmental forecast information to improve the energy transmission regime and, to reduce the environmental impact

21 High-Level Benefits E 2 Strategy (Environment and Economy) Air quality forecast information can be used by the energy sector maximizing the power production while minimizing the environmental impact

22 Inputs Respond to the National Energy Policy Better weather and climate forecasts Safer, more efficient energy transportation Respond to the Energy Sector through NOAA sponsored report: Defining the Requirements of the U.S. Energy Industry for Climate, Weather, and Ocean Information (SAIC, July 2000) Discussions with industry representatives, the energy service sector, industry associations, industry critics Energy Roundtable: A meeting with energy CEOs sponsored by DOC/NOAA and DOE (July, 2001) American Meteorological Society Weather, Climate and Energy Forum (October, 2001)

23 Energy Program Partners NOAA EPA (regional and states) University (i.e. UNH) Private Sector SAIC, WNI, EarthSat, NE ISO, etc. United State Energy Association

24 Summer 2002 Field Season Objective Produce, verify and improve 48-hr ozone forecasting during the ozone season in the east coast of US Activities Observations Radar wind profilers, ozone-profiling lidar (diurnal changes), ground-based, airborne and shipboard chemical and meteorological observations (e.g. nighttime chemistry)

25 Summer 2002 Field Season Activities Models HYSPLIT-ozone Meteorology couples Lagrangian meteorology dispersion with Eulerian chemistry descriptions MM5-Chem Meteorology model with on-line chemistry including biological emissions MAQSIP Separated models for meteorology, emission and chemical-transport

26 US AQ Forecasting Program Socio-Eco Benefits An interactive environmental and economic system Drs. Gittell, R. & J. R. Carter UNH

27 AQ Forecast Enabling Tools Health Forecast Air Quality Management System Smart Planning Emergency Response