COGEN 3 Technical Financial Analysis Model

Transcription

1 COGEN 3 Technical Financial Analysis Model 2004 Cogeneration Week in Indonesia 19 May 2004, Dusit Hotel, Balikpapan Thomas Hernoe Environmental Expert 1

2 Technical Financial Analysis (TFA) model Calculation model for technical, financial & environmental analysis of cogeneration projects Simple database for guidance: Cogeneration system efficiencies, fuel data, national economic data etc. Excel standard spreadsheet: Transparent & open model structure Developed by COGEN 3. Available for all & free 2

3 Facilitation of cogeneration project development: Services to project developers & end-users Technical / Financial / Environmental Analysis Advice on technology selection & investment decissions Financial packaging Announcement of identified cogeneration projects in ASEAN Tools for development & evaluation of cogeneration projects Technical Financial Analysis model (ver. 2) for free distribution Several advanced tools for advisory services 3

4 Facilitation of cogeneration project development: Services to project developers & end-users Technical / Financial / Environmental Analysis TFA model used by COGEN 3 Advice on technology selection & investment decissions Financial packaging Announcement of identified cogeneration projects in ASEAN Tools for development & evaluation of cogeneration projects Technical Financial Analysis model (ver. 2) for free distribution Several advanced tools for advisory services TFA model used by stakeholders 4

5 Project Development & TFA Development of cogeneration project Construction Operation Technical Financial Analysis model 5

6 TFA for calculations for cogeneration projects of: Financial performance (IRR, NPV, pay back time) Green House Gas emission (reduction of CO 2 eq. emission) TFA facilitates: Consistency of energy uses Comparison with electricity purchase & boiler for steam/hot water TFA basic principles: TFA uses & benefits Modelling of energy streams & cash flows on yearly basis Black box approach to cogeneration systems 6

7 TFA limitations & assumptions Limitations in use for detailed technical design due to: Modelling of energy streams & cash flows on yearly basis Black box approach to cogeneration systems Assumptions: Generation of electricity and steam/hot water correspond with requirements in facility and export obligations Energy streams & unit costs constant in lifetime All investments are in construction period 7

8 TFA user requirements TFA requires knowledge of: Energy streams in energy plants Basic financing principles Use of Excel (or similar spreadsheet programme) 8

9 TFA model overview (1) 9

10 TFA model overview (2) 10

11 Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Cogeneration TFA example Rice husk fired cogeneration project Planned steam turbine and boiler cogeneration plant Planned size of steam turbine No. of operating hours Assumed investment Rice husk price (transport and handling) 3 MW electric 5,000 hours/year 1,500 EURO/kW electric 1,000 Baht/Ton Current supply of electricty from grid. Current electricty purchase Purchase rate electricity 13,500 MWh/year 3.0 Baht/kWh Current supply of steam from diesel boiler. Current steam consumption (2 bar) for drying of rice paddy No. of operating hours Purchase rate diesel oil for steam boiler Operating cost current diesel boiler per year 8.3 Ton / hour 5,000 hours/year 10,000 Baht/Ton 800,000 Baht The rice husk is burned in open burning today. No export of electricity or thermal energy. Current boiler will be kept as backup boiler. 11

12 Rice husk fired cogeneration project Planned steam turbine and boiler cogeneration plant Planned size of steam turbine No. of operating hours Assumed investment Rice husk price (transport and handling) 3 MW electric 5,000 hours/year 1,500 EURO/kW electric 1,000 Baht/Ton Current supply of electricty from grid. Current electricty purchase Purchase rate electricity 13,500 MWh/year 3.0 Baht/kWh Current supply of steam from diesel boiler. Current steam consumption (2 bar) for drying of rice paddy No. of operating hours Purchase rate diesel oil for steam boiler Operating cost current diesel boiler per year 8.3 Ton / hour 5,000 hours/year 10,000 Baht/Ton 800,000 Baht The rice husk is burned in open burning today. No export of electricity or thermal energy. Current boiler will be kept as backup boiler. 12

13 Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Cogeneration PROJECT IDENTIFICATION Company: Rice husk Cogeneration Case: Base case Project description: Calculation done by: COGEN 3 Other identification: SUMMARY FINANCIAL RESULTS Pre-tax Project IRR 20.0% Pre-tax project nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Pre-tax Project NPV 189,235 ('000) Baht 3,895 ('000) EURO Pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) Post-tax Project IRR 20.0% Post-tax nominal project Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Post-tax Project NPV 189,235 ('000) Baht 3,895 ('000) EURO Post-tax Net Present Value (NPV) Post-tax Equity IRR 20.0% Post-tax nominal equity Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Discounted payback time Simple payback time 7.1 Years 4.8 Years Total investment costs (incl. contingency) 233,032 ('000) Baht 4,796 ('000) EURO Financial project lifetime 20 Years 13

14 ('000) Currency primary 150, ,000 50, , , , ,000 Annual revenue, cost and investment Net investment Total revenues of operation & avoided costs Total costs of operation Operating year ('000) Currency primary 250, , , ,000 50, , , , , ,000 Discounted cumulative cash flow Operating year 14

15 TFA model principles Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Cogeneration T 15

16 Conventional energy supply 16

17 Cogeneration energy supply 17

18 TFA model principles 18

19 Energy requirements (1) Design of cogeneration plant & financial performance depends on: Energy requirements: how much and when How cogeneration plant meet requirements 19

20 Energy requirements (2) Should be clarified: Electricity requirements Electricity export Thermal energy requirements Cooling requirements Possible ways to define the energy requirements: Energy audit done by consultant Own mapping and prediction Should be considered: Possible savings, process changes, process integration etc. Future energy requirements 20

21 Comparison with alternatives Current supply (reference situation / baseline): Boiler with low efficiency and electricity from grid Alternative 1: New boiler with high efficiency and electricity from grid covering host facility energy use Alternative 2: Cogeneration covering host facility energy use Alternative 3: Cogeneration covering host facility energy use and export Alternative 4: Cogeneration, supplementary supply of electricity and supplementary boiler covering host facility energy use and export Systematic approach needed to find optimal solution! 21

22 Baseline comparison (1) Baseline is current situation. Can reflect 3 aspects: Change of behaviour Energy needs before and after implementation of cogeneration can be different Cogeneration project can be mean to cover future energy needs Change of fuel Fuels have very different cost and emissions factors Change of technology The higher overall efficiency for cogeneration reduces costs and environmental impact If baseline is current situation: Shows the actual change in environmental impact Does not cover green field projects 22

23 Baseline comparison (2) Different baseline: Hypothetical calculation of alternative energy supply: Same energy services & same fuel as the cogeneration project Baseline will show the benefit of changing conversion technology Assumes fuel used in cogeneration system also would be chosen for thermal energy generation: Selection of fuel is not dependant on the technology applied, but on fuel market conditions 23

24 Interaction TFA model - user 24

25 TFA Green House Gas calculations 25

26 Green House Gas emission change Change in emission = GHG emission cogeneration supply of electricity & thermal energy GHG emission baseline supply of electricity & thermal energy` 26

27 CO 2 equivalent emissions Green Houses Gases: Carbon Dioxide CO 2 Methane CH 4 Nitrous Oxide N 2 O Carbon Dioxide equivalent emission = Carbon Dioxide + Methane Carbon Dioxide eq. + Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide eq. 27

28 New in TFA version 2 TFA model can be used in 2 different ways: Model for financial calculations (... Yearly amount /... Lump sum). Data inputs are yearly cash flows Model for energy stream calculations and financial calculation (... Facilitation): Data inputs are amounts of electricity and thermal energy needed, type and size of cogeneration plant, investment details etc. 4 new sheets has been added: Income sheet Balance sheet Sensitivity analysis Graphical presentation of energy streams TFA model can now handle: Sensitivity analysis Taxation Depreciation Debt service Corporate projections for cogeneration plant in a special purpose company 28

29 TFA model summary 29

30 For more information, please visit COGEN 3 Website at: Thank You! 30