Managing risk from climate variability and change: Lessons from Australia s Murray- Darling Basin University of Oxford, 17 April 2012

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1 Managing risk from climate variability and change: Lessons from Australia s Murray- Darling Basin University of Oxford, 17 April 2012 Dr Jamie Pittock Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU jamie.pittock@anu.edu.au

2 Murray-Darling Basin 2 Source: Pittock & Finlayson (2011)

3 Why the Murray-Darling Basin? Bottle Bend, NSW, 2009 (c) J Pittock In its dryness, Australia suggests the Planet s future, as the vast human population and the demands of its industries intensify competition for a unchanging quantity of freshwater; in water terms, Australia is a warning, and [the Murray-Darling basin] is its immediate expression. Source: Jacques Leslie (2005:227). Deep water: the epic struggle over dams, displaced people, and the environment. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York. 3

4 Lessons 1. All adaptation measures have value judgements, costs, risks and benefits that should be considered upfront. 2. The MDB exemplifies the dangers of: Mis-translating science into policy; Overly focussing on magic bullet adaptation (environmental flows and works and measures ); Overly-narrow and mal- adaptation. 3. Need to manage risk with a suite of different but complementary measures 4

5 Percentage change in average annual runoff 2050s ( ) compared with ; A2 scenarios. Source: Arnell, N. W. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004)

6 MDB climate and water scenarios CSIRO scenario Average surface water availability in 2030 End of system flows in Risks to shared water resources: -10 to -23% n/a 2008 extreme wet +7% +20% 2008 median -12% -24% 2008 extreme dry -37% -69% (Actual, 2009) (inflows -63%) (no outflows )

7 7 Benefits for people: Ecosystem services A$3-8 billion+ per year (CSIRO 2012): Ø Flushing salt to sea Ø Preventing acid drainage Ø Drinking water Ø Pastures on floodplains Ø Timber Ø Fish Ø Recreation and tourism Bottle Bend, NSW, 2009 (c) J Pittock

8 8 Institutional resilience strategies Strategies Positive attributes Negative attributes I. Resistance and maintenance Purpose, stability, optimization of resources, low risk of mal-adaptation Denial, resistance to change, ignorance, awaiting crisis before responding II. Change at the margins Accepts change, uses manageable, incremental responses May not cope with major shifts, address symptoms, poor long-term strategy III. Openness and adaptability Recognizes uncertainty and addressing underlying causes, rapid change Inefficient frequent change, possible maladaptation. Source: Dovers & Hezri DOI: /wcc.29

9 9 National policy National Water Initiative (2004): The risks of reductions in water allocations from climate change to lie with water access entitlement holders Water resource accounts must consider climate change States and Territories in preparing water plans must consider risks like climate and land use changes Water Act (2007, s22(1)): Mandatory content of Basin Plan includes The risks dealt with must include the risks to the availability of Basin water resources that arise from the following: [...] (b) the effects of climate change

10 10 MDBA interpretation of climate change While there is uncertainty associated with different predictions of the magnitude of climate change effects by 2030, there is general agreement that surface-water availability across the entire Basin is more likely to decline, with Basin-wide change of 10% less water predicted. (MDBA Guide to the Basin Plan, 2010:xxv).

11 11 Proposed adaptation mechanisms MDBA proposes: 1. Permanent allocation reductions 2. Proportional annual entitlement reductions (variability) 3. Basin Plan revision 4. Environmental works and measures Psyche Bend, VIC, 2009 (c) J Pittock

12 Resistance from some irrigators Irrigators burn copies of the Guide to the MDB Plan, Griffith NSW, Oct Nathan Edwards, News Ltd.

13 13 Economic impacts on irrigated agriculture: Government assessment on 37% reallocation of water (ABARE-BRS 2010): lower profits in irrigated agriculture of by 6-9 %; a fall in the gross value of irrigated agriculture of %; a decline in basin employment of %. Over to irrigated surface-water diversions fell by ~70 %, yet the GVIAP in nominal terms declined by less than 1 % (ABS 2010).

14 Examples of environmental works Floodplain wetland icon sites: Hattah Lakes (below) and GunbowerKoondrook-Pericoota (right). Source: MDBA 14

15 15 Balkanizing the ecosystem What does $235 million to inundate 36,108 ha buy? Basin wetlands Icon sites with works Ramsar wetlands (16) All wetlands Area (ha) % inundated by works 135, , ,700, Restored billabong, River Murray, Wentworth, Murray Wetlands Working Group, Sept (C) J Pittock Psyche Bend, River Murray, Mildura, Sept (C) J Pittock

16 16 House of Representatives inquiry: This report shows that there is an alternative way to achieve this without the pain many perceived would result from the Guide if it in fact became the Plan. [...] From the very south to the top of the Basin, the Committee heard of water savings that could be found through environmental works and measures and on-farm efficiency works. [...] The Committee recommends that they be explored prior to considering any reduction in productive water allocation. (HRSCoRA 2011:x).

17 Other adaptation options: Ovens, River, VIC. Photo J Pittock, 2008 Ground-surface water interaction. Source: CSIRO (2008) Weirs in NSW. Source: NSW Dept Industry and Innovation Thermal pollution in NSW. Source: NSW Dept Industry & Innovation 17 Murray cod S Behera Water temperature and native fish breeding Burrinjuck Dam, NSW. Source: NSW Fisheries

18 Conclusions 1. All adaptation measures have value judgements, costs, risks and benefits that should be considered upfront. 2. The MDB exemplifies the dangers of: Mis-translating science into policy; Overly focussing on magic bullet adaptation (environmental flows and works and measures ); Overly-narrow and mal- adaptation. 3. Need to manage risk with a suite of different but complementary measures 18

19 19 Key references: Pittock, J., Finlayson, C. M., Gardner, A. and McKay, C., Changing character: the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 27(6): Pittock, J. and Finlayson, C. M., Australia's Murray-Darling Basin: freshwater ecosystem conservation options in an era of climate change, Marine and Freshwater Research, 62: Pittock, J. and Finlayson, C. M., Freshwater ecosystem conservation in the Basin: principles versus policy, In Basin futures: Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin(Eds, Grafton, Q. and Connell, D.) ANU E-press, Canberra, pp epress.anu.edu.au/ basin_futures_citation.html Pope, Canberra Times