Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable

Transcription

1 Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable Mike Pritchard Professor of Earth System Sciences UC Irvine Acknowledging course content from Prof. Scott Denning, Colorado State University.

2 About me I m a new(ish) professor of Earth System Sciences. I spend most of my time doing climate research. I focus on clouds, rain and the atmosphere How to simulate climate better with next-generation atmopsheric codes & wild new supercomputers?

3 Your TAs: Dianne Sanchez Her research: Natural plant emissions and how they interact with with human pollution. ESS PhD student

4 Your TAs: Hongchen Qin His research: Land-atmosphere interactions & physics of shallow fair weather cumulus clouds. ESS PhD student

5 Your TAs: Mike Wood His research: The recent evolution of Greenland's glaciers and their contribution to mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet. ESS PhD student

6 About you

7 About you

8 Your textbook Reading book chapters is part of your homework. Studying the book will likely result in a better grade.

9 How your final grade will be calculated* 20% Midterm 1 (Jan 27, 2016) 20% Midterm 2 (Feb ) 40% Final Exam (March 18, 2016) 10% Weekly EEE quizzes 5% Discussion participation 5% i-clicker participation *actual final grade will be curved.

10 Discussion sections. Will begin next week. Where you learn how to answer test questions! Must attend 6 out of 9 for full 5% grade credit. Please bring your student ID. Posing as someone else results in a zero for participation, and may be reported to Dean.

11 i-clicker quizzes Will begin on Friday. Stay tuned for s about registering your clicker. Must answer > 2/3 of questions in > 2/3 of lectures for full 5% grade credit. Bring your i-clickers to lecture, make sure they have power. No pieces of paper / s accepted as substitute. Operating someone else s i-clicker will result in a zero for participation, and will likely be reported to Dean.

12 Other expectations Class begins at 2pm and ends promptly at 2:50pm. Please do not pack up at 2:45pm. Please turn off cell phone ringers. If you use computers they must be used to take notes or for appropriate class activities. Laptop users should sit on left hand side of the room starting from next lecture. Please listen when someone else asks a question Please participate when asked. Please do not talk.

13 A note on note-taking Lecture slides will be posted online after each lecture, by 4pm. Please consider not using laptops. Review your notes within 24 hours and use the readings to fill in what you are unsure about.

14 Any questions so far?

15 Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable Today & Wednesday: The entire course in preview! Acknowledging course content from Prof. Scott Denning, Colorado State University.

16 Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable (Today we ll cover this part)

17 I. Simple. The climate is very complex but the basic physics of climate change are not that hard to understand.

18 Weather vs. climate What s the difference? If you don t like the weather If you don t like the climate wait an hour! move!

19 Climate is place. Location, location, location! PHOENIX

20 Climate is place. Location, location, location! Depends on where you live: Latitude! Altitude (mountains vs valley) What s upwind (ocean vs land) Changes very slowly Very predictable

21 We can predict that Phoenix is warmer than Fargo for precisely the same reasons that we can predict a warmer future! PHOENIX

22 Every wonder why? Day is warmer than night Summer is warmer than winter Phoenix is warmer than Fargo

23 Heat budgets. Heat in Heat in Heat out Heat out

24 Dancing molecules and heat rays Nearly all of the air is made of oxygen (O 2 ) and nitrogen (N 2 ) in which two atoms of the same element share electrons O O N N Diatomic molecules can vibrate back and forth like balls on a spring, but the ends are identical Infrared (heat) energy radiated up from the surface can be absorbed by these molecules, but not very well

25 Dancing molecules and heat rays Carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O) are very different! O C O H O H Molecules that have many ways to wiggle are called greenhouse molecules. They have many more ways to vibrate and rotate, so they are very good at absorbing and emitting infrared (heat) radiation

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27 Common sense. 1 m 4 Watts - Doubling CO 2 would add 4 watts to every square meter of the surface of the Earth, 24/7 1 m - Doing that would make the surface warmer - This was known before light bulbs were invented! John Tyndall, January 1863

28 Example i-clicker question We re concerned about climate change because of how fast it s been getting warmer lately A. True B. False

29 COMMON MYTH # 1: We re concerned about climate change because of how fast it s been getting warmer lately A. True B. False False: We re concerned because when you add energy to a system it tends to warm up.

30 Tiny bubbles of ancient air priceless.

31 Reconstructions from ice.

32 How much more CO2 by 2100? 900 Maybe this much!

33 II. Serious.

34 How much warmer? - Land vs. ocean Low Emissions - North vs. south - Global mean warming of 2-5 deg C Moderate Emissions = 5-11 deg F - Arctic warming of 8-14 deg F High Emissions Rainfall? Agriculture? Water supply? Drought? Ski industry? Mass immigration?

35 Where is it 10F warmer on the average? Irvine > MexiCali Illinois > Mississippi Grand Junction > Tuscon

36 A region on the edge ` - Much of Southern California already receives little precipitation - Not enough snow to support forests and reservoirs. - Just enough water imported to support farming, landscaping. - Just enough water to support over 10 million people.

37 Future change in soil water?

38 Is the current drought a taste of things to come?

39 Agriculture industry?

40 Wildfire in the West Earlier spring snowmelt & runoff Hotter peak days with lower relative humidity Longer fire season

41 Real estate development? This is not about polar bears 100 years from now: Jobs and tax base Value of your home Retirement savings

42 Example i-clicker question If we reduce or stop burning fossil fuel, CO2 will go away and things will go back to normal A. True B. False

43 Common myth #2 If we reduce or stop burning fossil fuel, CO2 will go away and things will go back to normal If China and India industrialize with coal, CO 2 will rise to 5x preindustrial Extra CO 2 will last for millennia after coal is gone CO 2 (ppm) you are here CO 2 warming Warming (Celsius) GtC/yr emissions Forget Polar Bears what would that do to farmers? year

44 Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable We re done overviewing this part!

45 The worst myth of all: Without the subsidy of cheap fossil energy, civilization will crumble. People will freeze in the dark! We ll starve! The sky is falling!!! Be skeptical be very skeptical.

46 Climate Change Simple, serious, solveable We re done overviewing this part! Next lecture: Solutions overview by Prof. Steve Davis.

47 Thanks. See you on Friday. Remember, today s lecture was meant to be overwhelming because it is a course overview. Starting Friday we are going to take our time understanding this material from the bottom up.