Predicting PV Uptake in New Zealand SEANZ 2016 The Power Shift. Sharee McNab, Alan Wood, Scott Lemon, Allan Miller 18 November 2016

Transcription

1 Predicting PV Uptake in New Zealand SEANZ 2016 The Power Shift Sharee McNab, Alan Wood, Scott Lemon, Allan Miller 18 November 2016

2 Outline Background Method of Estimating PV Uptake Results Variable system costs Panel azimuthal angle DG user charges GREEN Grid - SEANZ

3 Generation (MW peak) NZ PV Uptake (January 2009 October 2016) Date GREEN Grid - SEANZ

4 Factors Affecting PV Uptake Economic Geographic Societal Political Solar Cell Central GREEN Grid - SEANZ

5 Outline Background to this work Method of Estimating PV Uptake Results GREEN Grid - SEANZ

6 Uptake Hypothesis: Households with a positive Net Present Value (NPV) will install PV N NPV = i=1 Revenuei Cost i (1 + r) i I + where N = the number of years for the analysis (25 years), r = the discount rate (6% is assumed) I = the initial investment R = the salvage value (0); Revenue i = the revenue for the i th year Cost i = costs for the i th year R (1 + r) N 0 GREEN Grid - SEANZ

7 Calculating Generation Generation per region NIWA s Typified Meteorological Year Irradiance data (hourly) Converted into a 3.5kW reference system taking into account optimal panel tilt of 30 tilt, 0 azimuth (north-facing, also east-west facing) Derating factors such as wiring losses, cell mis-match Balance of system losses of 10% assumed Panel degradation over time 0.8% p.a. Assume same irradiance profile for 25 year analysis period Ref: Santos-Martin, D. Lemon, S. (2015). SoL A PV generation model for grid integration analysis in distribution networks, Solar Energy 120 (2015) GREEN Grid - SEANZ

8 Load Profile Acquisition Over load profiles obtained anonymously from energy retailers Households categorised as low or high users/flat or night rate tariff Load profiles for 15 out of 16 regions Half-hourly load data for a full year Assume static load profiles over 25 year analysis period Otago % GREEN Grid - SEANZ 2016 Southland % 8 Region Number of Load Profiles Percentage of Occupied Dwellings Sampled Northland % Auckland % Waikato % Bay of Plenty % Gisborne % Hawke s Bay % Taranaki % Manawatu-Whanganui % Wellington % Nelson % Tasman % Marlborough % Canterbury % West Coast %

9 kwh per Half Hour kwh per Half Hour Calculating Revenue Per Household Household Load & Generation Household Export and Avoided Import :00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 0 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 Time Time Load PV Generated Avoided Import Export Load < Generation Revenue = Export + Avoided cost of electricity Load Generation Revenue = Avoided cost of electricity Grid Buy-back Rate: 8c/kWh Electricity Rates: Genesis Energy s website (regional) Annual Price Adjustment: Retail 1.5%, Export 0.5% p.a. GREEN Grid - SEANZ

10 Initial Investment & Costs Initial Investment, varied $/Wp Costs Operation & Maintenance $20/kW/p.a. Inverter Replacement (after 15 years), 0.5 $/Wp GREEN Grid - SEANZ

11 Outline Background to this work Method of Estimating PV Uptake Results GREEN Grid - SEANZ

12 Net Present Value Results - Marlborough Marlborough s 0 NPV point: 2.96 $/Wp GREEN Grid - SEANZ

13 Net Present Value Results N.Z. Over all regions in New Zealand 0 NPV point: 2.4 $/Wp GREEN Grid - SEANZ

14 Region PV Capacity Factor (%) PV System Cost at which median NPV is zero ($/Wp) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawke s Bay Taranaki Manawatu-Whanganui Wellington Nelson Tasman Marlborough Canterbury West Coast Otago GREEN Grid - SEANZ 2016 Southland

15 Capacity Factor (%) Effect of Panel Angle North Facing Versus East-West System Cost At Which Median NPV Is Zero ($/Wp) Regional Capacity Factors For PV Generation North Facing Versus East-West Facing Panels System Cost For Median NPV Zero Point By Region 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% North Facing East-West Facing North Facing East-West Facing Region Region GREEN Grid - SEANZ

16 Assumed Installed Capacity for NZ For each region: Assume same % of households in sample have positive NPV over all the occupied dwellings Each household with NPV > 0 has 3.5kW DG installed BUT Home ownership 64.8% Separate dwellings 81.1% 52.5% households available for PV MW MW GREEN Grid - SEANZ

17 The Effect of DG Charges Unison introduced new DG charges 1 April 2016 Designed to more fairly reflect the costs incurred by users due to DG often not reducing peak demand Low User (< 8kWh) High User (>= 8kWh) Fixed Daily Charge No change Increase (65.5c) Variable Charge (per unit) Increase (3c 6.3c) No change GREEN Grid - SEANZ

18 Effect of DG User Charges on NPV NZ s 0 NPV point: 2.4 $/Wp With DG User Charges NZ s 0 NPV point: 2.2 $/Wp GREEN Grid - SEANZ

19 Effect of DG User Charges on PV Uptake GREEN Grid - SEANZ

20 Modelling Assumptions That sample load profiles obtained are representative of NZ load profiles. Household electricity consumptions remain fixed Doesn t take into account pro-active prosumers altering consumption Ignores the effect new appliance technology may have on electricity consumption patterns Electricity pricing structure fixed All generated power in the 30 min metering period is available for self consumption (artificial battery effect) Cultural and social factors also strongly affect PV uptake but are not considered here. GREEN Grid - SEANZ

21 Conclusions PV is financially viable for approximately half NZ 2.4 $/Wp. Large regional differences in economic viability. Analysis suggests we are potentially on the cusp of large PV uptake of PV in NZ. GREEN Grid - SEANZ

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23 Distributed Generation Guideline Developed by the EPECentre, under the GREEN Grid project (MIBE funded) in consultation with industry partners Mission: Reduce PV application processing time and cost for EDBs Make PV application easier for the customer Avoid additional network costs in the future Status Consultation draft published by Electricity Engineers Association in May 2016 Consultation feedback discussed at Network Analysis Group meeting held on 13 th October 2016, Guideline is now being updated. GREEN Grid 23

24 DG Connection Process: Traffic light system Example: Customer DG Application Max real export power [kw] 4.5 LV Network Hosting Capacity Outputs Connection threshold H 1 [kw] (upper limit for no mitigation) Connection threshold H 2 [kw] (upper limit with mitigation) GREEN Grid 24

25 Does Roof-top Solar Work For You? Solar Calculator Developed by the EPECentre in partnership with EECA Ilam Rd, Ilam, Christchurch 8041 Estimated years to get your money back Estimated total earnings over 25 years 25

26 Region Capacity Factor North Facing Panel System Cost at which median NPV is zero ($/Wp) East-West Facing Panel Capacity GREEN Grid - SEANZ Southland Factor System Cost at which median NPV is zero ($/Wp) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawke s Bay Taranaki Manawatu-Whanganui Wellington Nelson Tasman Marlborough Canterbury West Coast Otago

27 Region Capacity Factor (%) System Cost at which median NPV is zero ($/Wp) Change in median zero NPV with DG User Charges ($/Wp) Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawke s Bay Taranaki Manawatu- Whanganui Wellington Nelson Tasman Marlborough Canterbury West Coast Otago Effect of DG User Charges on PV Uptake Southland GREEN Grid - SEANZ