California and U.S. Initiatives to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector

Transcription

1 California and U.S. Initiatives to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Transportation Sector Jack Brouwer, Ph.D. Associate Director July, 2008 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

2 Setting the Stage Primary Energy Engine Societal Use Air Fuel Combustion Engine Exhaust Thermal Energy Fuel Air Combustion Engine Exhaust National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

3 Combustion Thermal Energy Fuel Air Combustion Engine Exhaust CO 2 + H 2 O + N 2 + Pollutants GHG Smog 80% of World s Power 94% of World s CO 2 Emissions 90% of World s Pollutant Emissions Source: Science Photo Library National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

4 Vehicle Demand Forecast OECD vehicle populations are huge and still growing Demand increase is tremendous in Eastern Europe, Former Soviet Union, China, Latin America, Other Asia, National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

5 Vehicle Demand Forecast Year World Population (Billions) Availability of Automobile (%) World Vehicle Ownership (Billions) Environmental Impact % % Toyota estimates, 2006 Factor of ~4 5 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

6 Energy Demand Forecast World Energy Demand [Million WORLD B/D ENERGY Oil Equivalent] DEMAND 2030 Other Residential and Services 2000 Transportation Transportation Industry Electric Power Electric Power Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2006 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

7 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Intensity Forecast ENERGY DEMAND WORLD ENERGY DEMAND WORLD GHG INTENSITY [Million B/D Oil Equivalent] [Billion Metric T/Y] WORLD ENERGY DEMAND 40 Other 35 Residential and Services Transportation Transportation Industry Electric Power Electric Power SOURCE: IEA WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

8 FORCES FOR CHANGE Forces for Change #1 Green House Gas Intensity (1990) #2 Pollutant Impacts (1940) #3 Hubbert s Curve (1980) National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

9 Hubbert s s Curve Petroleum Production Rate [ Billion Bbl/Y ] Year 2020 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

10 Forces for Change #1 Greenhouse Gas Intensity (1990) #2 Pollutant Impacts (1940) Paradigm Shifts #3 Hubbert s Curve (1980) Electric Power Transportation #4 Fuel Independence (9/11) Fuel Engine #5 National Security (9/11) Conservation Electrical Power Personal Vehicle Building Design Urban Design National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

11 1966: Automobile Emissions Control AB 32 California First in the Nation : Power Plant Emissions Control 600 GHG Emissions [MMT CO 2 e] Southern California Edison Orange County Leading Firms 1990 California Leadership o KVB, Dynamic Science, Ultrasystems, EERC, FERCO, AUS, o GE Environmental Services o GE Global Research 30% Reduction 1977: 300 South Coast Air Quality Management District 1990: 200 CARB Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate : : Governor Executive Orders S-7-04 Hydrogen Highway 0 S Green Action Team 1990 S-3-05 Climatic 2000 Action 2004Team Year 2006: Assembly Bill 32 Global Warning Solutions Act National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 80% Reduction

12 California Leadership Recent ( ) 2008) California Global Climate Initiatives AB 1493 (2003): (Pavley) mandates 30% reduction in GHG emissions for new light duty vehicles by 2016 AB 1007 (2005): requires plan to replace gasoline use with low carbon alternatives AB 32 (2006): Global Warming Solutions Act aggressive goals for GHG reduction by SB 1368 (2006): GHG emissions standards for IOUs and POUs AB 2021 (2006): Energy efficiency for POUs AB 2160 (2006): Green Building acquisition financing for state facilities SB 107 (2006): Accelerated RPS Goals (20% by 2010) SB 1 (2006): Renewable goals for residential and commercial structures AB 2778 (2006): Self generation incentive program for fuel cells and wind SB 1250 (2006): PIER renewables incentive program EO (2007) Governor implements Low Carbon Fuel Standard ARB (2008) AB 32 Plan released (June 26) National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

13 United States Initiatives Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Many states following California lead RPS standards GHG reduction mandates for all sectors EIA, U.S. DOE, 2007 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

14 What Alternatives Are Available? i Combustion Fossil Fuel 80% of World s Power 94% of World s CO 2 Emissions 90% of World s Pollutant Emissions i Fuel Cell Combustion Heat Hot Gases Turbine Generator Fossil Fuel Electricity Electrochemistry Electricity National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

15 Fuel Cell Alternative Natural Gas e Load Digester Gas Biomass Gas Syn Gas Fuel e e Air H 2 H + O 2 H 2 O Product Gases Residual Fuel Product Gases Residual Oxidant Anode Electrolyte (Ion Conductor) Cathode National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

16 H 2 gasoline Transportation Fuel Cells ~60 % ~20 % H 2 O N 2 air 2,000 lbs 600 lbs feet 50,000 Combustion FC CO 2 exhaust HC CO NO xx 4,000 0 PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANT EARTH National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

17 Fuel Cell Vehicles Fuel Cells All major auto manufacturers pursuing UCI GM_Opel Hydrogen 1 Honda FCX V3 GM Sequel GM Equinox Mazda Premacy Nissan FCV Daimler FCell UCI Ford P2000 H2 Hyundai FCEV Toyota Fine Honda FCX Clarity GM HyWire Hyundai iblue National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 Toyota FCHV

18 Transportation Fuels CO 2 Emission: Fuel & Vehicle Gasoline Vehicle Fuel Vehicle Today Gasoline HV Hydrogen HV FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen) Target FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen) FCHV (Coal Hydrogen) FCHV (H2O H 2 by Renewable Energy) FCHV (Biomass) Fuel Vehicle National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

19 Transportation Fuels U.S. Department of Energy Initiative for Advanced Power Plants MW Natural Gas Coal High-Efficiency Electrical Generation Natural Gas: 75% Coal: 60% Zero Emission of Criteria Pollutants CO 2 Capture for Sequestration Co-Production of Hydrogen & Other Fuels National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

20 2500 ST/D Coal COAL & LIMESTONE AIR 100 MMSCF/D Hydrogen H2 TO PIPELINE HUMIDIFIED / PREHEATED O2 GASIFICATION (ATR) CHAR FLUID BED CHAR BOILER & STACK GAS CLEANUP RAW SYN GAS STACK GAS HEAT RECOVERY & HT GAS CLEANUP COOLING / HEAT RECOVERY &H2 COMPRESSION HP STEAM CO 2 CO2 TO PIPELINE H2 HP STEAM AIR H2 SEPARATING MEMBRANE SWEEP GAS GT GAS TURBINE CO2 COMPRESSION/ DEHYDRATION/ PUMPING HOT DEPLETED AIR SOFC Electricity H2 O2 FROM ITM TURBINE EXHAUST GENERATOR Electricity DEPLETED FUEL GAS CATALYTIC OXIDATION, GAS COOLING & Hg REMOVAL ITM SHIFT & H2 SEPARATING MEMBRANE HRSGS O2 FOR GASIFIER & CATALYTIC OXIDATION UNIT SWEEP GAS HP STEAM ST STACK GAS STEAM TURBINE 65 % 71 MW GENERATOR Electricity TO CONDENSER ASH 100 MW National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

21 Transportation Fuels CO 2 Emission: Fuel & Vehicle Gasoline Vehicle Fuel Vehicle Today Gasoline HV Hydrogen HV FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen) Target FCHV (Natural Gas Hydrogen) FCHV (Coal Hydrogen) FCHV (H2O H 2 by Renewable Energy) FCHV (Biomass) Fuel Vehicle National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

22 Energy Station Concept Energy Station Electric Power Generation Thermal Power Generation Hydrogen Generation Renewable Energy Station Green Electricity Green Thermal Power Renewable Hydrogen Transportation Fuels PV DIGESTER NATURAL GAS LAND-FILL GAS National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

23 Transportation Fuels Renewable Residential Fuel Cell System National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

24 Transportation Fuels Renewable Residential Fuel Cell System 4.2 kw RFC Supply & Demand Power Flow: PV Power 7.9 kw EZ Power (In) 4.2 kw FC Power (Out) Grid Power Power (kw) System Cost $ 42, H2 Produced 50.9 kwh kw Peak RFC 8.1 kw RFC Round Trip Eff. 57% System Eff. 71% 1.53 kg renewable H 2 for transport (~ 18 mile weekday commute) Time (One Week) National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

25 Input Fuel Cycle Analytical Tool Simplified scheme, adaptable to include other technologies Generation Distribution Utilization Input Input Input Adjust Contribution Adjust Contribution National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 Adjust Contribution

26 Fuel Cycle Analytical Tool GHG emissions with the adoption of hydrogen infrastructure for passenger vehicles in Southern California 12.5% adoption of hydrogen vehicles 75% adoption of hydrogen vehicles National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

27 Fuel Cycle Analytical Tool Spatial & Temporal Analyses NV CA AZ Interstates & Freeways H2 Fueling Stations Central SMR Facilities Petroleum Coke Coal 5 Renewable (Solar, Wind, Geo) & Nuclear High Temperature Fuel Cells Los Angeles 405 H2 Pipelines H2 Truck Deliver Routes UCI Newport Beach National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 73

28 Output GHG emissions Criteria pollutant emissions Energy consumption Water consumption Fuel Cycle Analytical Tool 8-hr. Ozone Spatial Distribution Temporal Distribution 24-hr. Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Air Quality Simulation k k k k Qm ( k ) ( k Q ) m Q m Q m + uqm = K Qm t t t t sources / sinks aerosol National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 chemistry

29 Fuel Cycle Analytical Tool Accounting for spatial & temporal variations of emissions of all hydrogen infrastructure (generation, distribution, end-use) 24-hr peak 8-hr PM O for for HH 2 2 vs. vs. Conventional Scenario Scenario Two coke-to- H 2 plants National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

30 Many Alternative Fuel Options Hydrogen Renewable hydrogen Sustainable hydrogen Less sustainable hydrogen Bio-fuels Biodiesel Ethanol, Methanol Hydrogen Transportation Fuels Electricity Renewable electricity Sustainable electricity (e.g., nuclear) Less sustainable, less environmentally sensitive electricity Evolving as the dual fuel Source: Lisa Benson, Los Angeles Times, 16 April 2008 No alternative fuel is the silver bullet BUT electricity use in transportation is clearly desirable National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

31 Convergence of Technologies Energy / Consumer / Environmental analyses Technology Traditional gasoline car Meets User Requirements Fulfills Personal Mobility Hybrid Yes Yes Hydrogen Eliminates Criteria Pollutants Eliminates GHG Emissions National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 Eliminates Fossil Fuel Use Provides Energy Security Yes Yes No No No No Yes (but technology hurdles) Yes No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear Bio-Fuel Yes Yes No No Electric Mass Transit (bus) Mass Transit (electric rail) PRT No (range & recharge limits) Yes Yes Yes (shipping, no) Yes No No Yes (if stops convenient) Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear Yes, if renewable, nuclear Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, not enough feedstock Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear Yes, if renewable, nuclear No, but better Yes, if renewable, nuclear Yes Yes No, but better Yes Yes

32 Convergence of Technologies Energy / Consumer Environmental analyses identify electrification as desirable for transport Assess all major primary energy sources Apply to moving vehicle Analyze criteria pollutant and GHG impacts of primary energy conversion, transmission, distribution, and end-use Nuclear Reactor Heat Steam Turbine H 2 O Turbine Sun Heat Radiation Boiler Solar Collector Evaporation Buoyancy Photosynthesis PV Steam Steam Flowing Wind Organic Electricity River Material Rotating Rotating Sh ft Sh ft Energy Conversion Process Process that produces CO 2 Process that produces criteria pollutants and CO 2 Wind Turbine Generator Labels on lines indicate the form of energy at that point in the process Rotating Sh ft Electricity Boiler Grid E Road Electricity Time Fossil Fuel Mining/Transport Combustion Hot Gases Steam Rotating Gas Turbine Sh ft Electrolysis Battery Storage Electricity Electricity H 2 Electric Motor High Temp FC H 2 H 2 Distribution H 2 Storage Fuel Cell Electricity Organic Material Reformer H 2 Pressurize H 2 Pressurize CNG CNG Storage Refine Gas/ Di F T Fuel Distribution Storage Storage Distillation Bio-Fuel NG Oil Coal Gas/ Di l Liquid F l F Liquid Bio- Storage Spark Ignited/Diesel Combustion l F l Rotating Shaft l Rotating Shaft National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 Moving Vehicle

33 Convergence of Technologies Energy / Consumer / Environmental analyses identify electrification as desirable for transport Vehicle (study) Fuel Energy (MJ/MJ) Fuel Carbon (g C/MJ) EPA City (MJ/km) EPA Highway (MJ/km) Grams C/km (gc/km) National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37 Total Energy (MJ/km) Total C (gc/km) BEV (UCI) BEV (ADVISOR) BEV (MIT) BEV (GM) 1.45/ /36 Current gas (MIT) * Current gas (GM) Diesel Hybrid (MIT) Diesel Hybrid (GM) H 2 Fuel Cell (MIT) H 2 Fuel Cell (GM) TRV (UCI) TRV (ADVISOR) * 1996 Toyota Camry GM full-size pick-up truck The GM study did not differentiate between city and highway driving

34 Energy / Consumer Environmental analyses identify electrification as desirable for transport Third Rail Vehicle (TRV) idea All auto features of personal interest Charge on major electrified roads e-road BEV of e-road Convergence of Technologies National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

35 60 % H 2 H 2 O Air 600 lbs FC N 2 Exhaust FUEL CELL HYBRID VEHICLE FUEL CELL HYDROGEN POWER CONTROL UNIT SECONDARY BATTERY MOTOR National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

36 Convergence of Technologies Combustion Combustion/Solar/Wind/Electrochemical/Nuclear/NG Central Power Central/Distributed Power Electric Power Evolution Nexus: Transportation/Electricity ICE Hybrid PHEV HFCV PHFCV Combustion Electrochemistry Transportation Evolution Owned Vehicle Owned Vehicle/Shared Vehicle/Public Transport Gasoline Gasoline/Bio Fuels/Electricity Hydrogen/Electricity National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37

37 National Fuel Cell Research Center, /37