Dispatchable Solar: The Impact of PV + Storage on the Grid

Transcription

1 Dispatchable Solar: The Impact of PV + Storage on the Grid FMEA ENERGY CONNECTIONS CONFERENCE & TRADE SHOW October 24-25, 2018

2 8minutenergy Renewables: In just eight minutes, energy from the Sun reaches the Earth. We take it from there. Mount Signal 3, Imperial Valley, CA: 328 MW 2

3 8minutenergy s mission is to make solar energy abundant, and to be the industry leader in lowering the cost of dispatchable solar PV Springbok 2, Kern County, CA: 191 MW 3

4 Company Introduction & Storage Capabilities 4

5 8minutenergy Renewables is the nation s largest independent solar PV and energy storage developer PORTFOLIO AND TRACK RECORD Among top utility scale PV+S developers in U.S., and top developer in California 7,500+ MW solar PV under development, plus 1,000+ MW storage under development 800+ MW of utility scale projects producing power Raised over $3 billion of project capital since 2015 for 8minutenergy projects Notable projects: Mount Signal, 800 MW: America s largest solar PV cluster Eagle Shadow Mountain, 420 MW: One of the lowest cost solar projects in the world CA SOUTHWEST TX SOUTHEAST 1+ GW Storage Development Pipeline in Target U.S. Regions 5

6 We have built some of the nation s largest and most recognizable solar PV projects, and have over 7 GWs in development SPRINGBOK 2 SOLAR FARM 191 MW REDWOOD CLUSTER 73 MW SPRINGBOK 1 SOLAR FARM 137 MW MOUNT SIGNAL SOLAR FARM 800 MW MOUNT SIGNAL SOLAR FARMS 800 MW CALIPATRIA 1 26 MW 6

7 Our storage experts have developed, designed and deployed more than 40 operating energy storage plants with a capacity of more than 500 MW world-wide PROJECT TYPE PROJECT SIZE CUSTOMER USE 30 MW lithium battery storage 2 x 50 MW gas turbines with 10 MW lithium battery storage each Imperial Irrigation District Spinning reserve and frequency regulation for dispatch optimization Spinning reserve, frequency regulation, emissions and water reduction 20 MW solar PV with 2.5 MW lithium battery storage Energy arbitrage 3x 2 MW wind turbines with 200 kw DC coupled sodium battery each 10 MW wind with 1 MW sodium battery storage Wind and solar integration with 1 MW sodium battery storage Wind Energy Institute of Canada (WEIcan) Renewables smoothing, synthetic inertia and frequency regulation Renewables smoothing, synthetic inertia and frequency regulation Renewables smoothing, synthetic inertia and frequency regulation 7

8 Storage is like bacon it makes everything better! 8

9 Or, if you prefer storage is like chocolate it makes everything better! 9

10 What s wrong with this picture? INSTALLED NAMEPLATE CAPACITY/FIRM SUMMER NET CAPABILITY (MEGAWATTS) Source: Florida Public Service Commission, 2018 Statistics Report 10

11 Solar and Wind accounted for 55-70% of new electric generating capacity in the U.S. in recent years ANNUAL ADDITIONS OF NEW ELECTRIC CAPACITY Source: GTM Research/SEIA,

12 What is Energy Storage? 12

13 Energy Storage on the Electrical Grid is not new 1929 First Major Pumped Storage Plant To increase the hydropower capacity of the Housatonic River, Connecticut Light and Power begins flooding what would become Candlewood Lake and builds the Rocky River Plant in New Milford, the first large-scale pumpedstorage development in the United States. 13

14 Lithium-ion batteries offer a very compelling value proposition when paired with PV to provide dispatchable solar Lithium-ion battery system 14

15 Generally used for short duration storage, several manufacturers are working to develop 4-hour flywheel systems Flywheel Energy Storage System 15

16 CAES is very site specific, and improves efficiency of natural gas turbine power plants CAES: Compressed Air Energy Storage Compressed Air Energy Storage 16

17 CSP captures and stores solar energy, but has not experienced the dramatic cost declines of PV, so LCOE/LCOS is higher Concentrating Solar Power: Molten-salt Power Tower 17

18 As EV s continue to expand in scale, they offer a tremendous opportunity for networked micro-storage across the grid EV s: Electric Vehicles 18

19 Very site specific, gravitational storage requires significant elevation change but offers longer duration storage opportunities when the right site can be found Pumped Storage Hydroelectric ARES: Advanced Rail Energy Storage 19

20 Why Storage Now? 20

21 Lithium-ion battery prices have dropped 80% in the past 8 years Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 21

22 The rapid deployment of solar PV was driven by dramatic price declines Source: GTM Research/SEIA,

23 Technology innovation, as well as manufacturing scale, will drive this price decline Source: Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and Energy Storage 23

24 Analysts predict U.S. annual energy storage deployment will approach 4 GW by 2023 U.S. ANNUAL ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT FORECAST, E (MW) Source: GTM Research 24

25 Energy storage is a global phenomenon with a 5-year CAGR of 55%, led by the U.S. ANNUAL LITHIUM-ION ENERGY STORAGE DEPLOYMENT FORECAST E (GWh) Source: GTM Research Hub Data, Energy Storage Data Hub 25

26 California is ground-zero for energy storage with the most MWh s deployed Source: U.S. EIA; Energy Capacity in Megawatthours 26

27 Storage was initially viewed as a product for frequency regulation but has evolved into a Swiss Army Knife style product providing a multitude of stacked services KEY SERVICES PROVIDED BY STORAGE (U.S. 2016) Source: U.S. EIA; Form EIA

28 Energy storage is the killer application, particularly for PV+S to help flatten the belly of the CAISO duck-curve by shifting PV energy later in the day to match peak demand DUCK CURVE: NET LOAD, MARCH 31 SB 100 and continued solar PV development will exacerbate this issue unless storage is added The massive evening ramp (13,000 MW) is currently met with naturalgas peakers, which will need to be replaced with zero emission generation Source: CAISO Net Load Curve Duck Curve 28

29 TIME SHIFTING Time or energy shifting allows utilities to shape the output of solar PV and deliver steady, predictable power WHAT IS TIME SHIFTING? Project Output During Cool/Low AC Load Day Solar is generated in the middle of the day Adding storage to a solar PV plant provides the ability to utilize solar power during different periods of the day depending on system needs Storage can be charged during periods of high solar PV output and discharged as desired for fully dispatchable clean energy Project Output During Hot/High AC Load Day Storage may also be charged during periods of over generation or when the market price of energy is low Energy shifting with storage allows utilities to ensure power output by controlling morning ramp up and evening ramp down periods 29

30 EMERGENCY POWER (BLACKSTART) Responding to system emergencies during blackouts is a critical aspect of a reliable power supply EMERGENCY POWER OR BLACKSTART Black start is the ability to reenergize a power plant or substation without any offsite power source. Storage can provide immediate power to critical system loads Storage can provide immediate power to other generating resources needing start up power Storage can quickly be switched to a load once other generation comes on to help stabilize the system. Storage can provide the frequency regulation for a small load or island. 30

31 What Generation Products Can PV+S Replace Today? 31

32 Natural gas fired peakers represent a huge market that PV+S can economically replace.. NOW 120 GW OF PEAKER PLANT CAPACITY OPERATIONAL IN THE U.S. MEDIAN CAPACITY FACTOR OF 3%, MEDIAN HOURS PER START OF 5.3 HOURS 48 GW (40%) has average hours per start of 4 hours or less. Source: Wood Mackenzie based on EIA 32

33 When it comes to pricing, standalone storage will be lower cost than gas peaker plants in a few years BASE CASE LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY: PEAKING GAS COMBUSION TURBINE VS. 4 HR. LI-ION BATTERY STORAGE ($/MWh) Source: GTM Report: Will Energy Storage Replace Peaker Plants? March

34 449 GW of natural gas generating capacity in the U.S. in GW of that are combustion turbines (peakers) DISTRIBUTION OF NATURAL GAS POWER PLANTS IN THE LOWER 48 STATES HIGH IRRADIANCE IDEAL FOR PV+S Source: U.S. EIA 34

35 30% of the U.S. power generation comes from coal, with many units being retired early and shut-down Source: U.S. EIA 35

36 Final Thoughts 36

37 PV + Storage will be integrated into grid management to ensure a safe, reliable and cost-effective power system NOVA EMS FROM 8MINUTENERGY Simulator Estimate performance for PPA Optimize battery selection Optimize architecture & size Estimate value vs. traditional generators Demonstrate plant control algorithms Dispatcher Hybrid PV + Storage plant interface to utility Uses PV prediction for autonomous modes Manages ITC & contract limits, data access Optimizer Optimizes dispatch of plant for market conditions Algorithms decide energy and regulation bid mix 37

38 The future of dispatchable solar is here, and it s an exciting time to be in PV + energy storage today THE VALUE OF DISPATCHABLE SOLAR IS HERE We are in the midst of an incredible growth market. GTM predicts the U.S. energy storage market to reach roughly 3.9 gigawatts (GW) by 2023 almost 10 times total 2018 market size, with surging deployment in the utility scale storage projects. THERE IS NO REASON TO WAIT Utilities are moving quickly to finalize projects by 2019 to 2021 so they can couple their storage with solar and capture the 30% Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC). THE INDUSTRY IS EVOLVING TO LONGER DURATION BATTERIES ENERGY STORAGE WILL BE A HUGE COMPONENT OF THE FUTURE RENEWABLE EXPANSION A 4 hour battery pairs well with solar because it allows us to shift energy delivery from the middle of the day to the evening. We are seeing longer duration batteries becoming the norm. Software and new technology will drive this expansion. Energy storage will also compliment natural gas generation. 38

39 Thank you. Steve McKenery VP, Storage Solutions +1 (323)