China s Gross Domestic Product

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1 China s Gross Domestic Product 1990 to 2006 US$ Billions China Korea Japan India

2 Consumer Price Index Indexed to 2000 Index 2000 = China Korea, Rep. 100 Japan India

3 Fixed Investments: Sustainable? As a percentage of GDP, 1990, China India Japan Korea United States

4 Pace of Economic Growth Number of Years to Double Per Capita GDP Years U.K U.S Japan India China S. Korea China China

5 Steel Trade China in Comparison, 1999 to 2005

6 Sources of Electricity Production China, Percent of Total, 1990 to 2002 Percent Hydroelectric Sources (% of total) (L) Nuclear Sources (% of total) (L) Coal (% of total) (R) Natural Gas (% of total) (L) Oil Sources (% of total) (L) Percent

7 GDP per Unit of Energy Use China, 1990 to 2002 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent 6 China U.S.A. India

8 Energy Consumption per Capita 10 United States China India Tonnes oil equivalent per person

9 Energy Consumption Per $ 1,000 GDP 2.0 Tonnes oil equivalent per US$ 1,000 GDP United States China India

10 Environment Overview China China owns 7% of world's farmable land Over 75% of rivers are unusable for farming or drinking Between 2001 and 2020, 600,000 people/ year are expected to suffer premature deaths due to air pollution 30% of acid rain that falls in China is blamed on the burning of coal

11 Carbon Dioxide Emissions China in Comparison, 1950 to 2002

12 Carbon Dioxide Emissions and GDP China and U.S.A., 1975 to 2002 CO2 Emission (MTC) China Emission (L) China GDP per Capita (R) PPP Current International $Ths. 40 U.S.A. Emission (L) U.S.A. GDP per Capita (R)

13 CO2 Emission Per Dollar of GDP Kg per 2000 dollar of GDP China India U.S. S.Korea Brazil U.K. Japan France

14 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita China in Comparison, 1980, 2000 Metric tons per capita U.S. U.K. S.Korea China Japan France Brazil India

15 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita China in Comparison, 2002 Tons per Capita U.S.A. Australia Korea Japan China Brazil Indonesia India

16 CO2 Emission United States vs. China Metric tons of carbon per $1,000 GDP China ( ) United States ( ) United States ( )

17 If Chinese Households Buy More Cars Number of cars owned per urban household In the United States, each household owns 1.78 cars United States 0.01 China In China, each 100 urban households owns 1.36 cars. If every 10 Chinese urban households own 1 car, China s emission of carbon dioxide will increase by 79.4 million tons each year*. *Based upon 225 miles per week/22 miles per gallon assumptions.

18 Who are the Major CO2 Producers? United States China Russia India Japan Germany UK Canada South Korea Italy CO2 Emission, 2002 Rank Millions of tons 1 1, CO2 Per Capita Rank Tons

19 Damages Caused by Pollution 1999 to 2003 US $Millions 25 Damages (L) Fines (L) 20 Compensation (L)

20 Sulphur Dioxide Emission China, 2000 and 2005 (est.) Thousand Tonnes 2000 Industry Domestic

21 Ammonia Nitrogen Emission China, 2000 and 2005 (est.) Thousand Tonnes 110 Industry Domestic

22 Soot Emission China, 2000 and 2005 (est.) Thousand Tonnes 1200 Industry Domestic

23 Dust in the Wind Beijing, 17 April, 2006

24 Dust in the Wind Beijing, 17 April, 2006

25 Dust in the Wind Beijing, 17 April, 2006

26 Dust in the Wind Beijing, 17 April, 2006

27 Global Steel Production Percent Change, 2005 to 2006 Geographical Region Global Production Global Production w/o China USA EU25 Brazil Japan India China Percent Change % % % % % % % %

28 Combustible Waste Percentage of Total Energy Use, 1990 to 2002 Percent China Singapore Japan India

29 Organic water pollutant emissions China, 1990 to 2000 Thousand kg per day

30 Organic water pollutant emissions China, 1990 to 2000 Thousand kg per day China Japan 8000 Korea, Rep. Singapore

31 Environmental Sustainability Index Scores, 2005 Country Japan Germany Russia United States India S. Korea China Taiwan N. Korea ESI Rank ESI Score

32 China s Rising Urban Population 1990 to 2002 Percent Urban Population Rural Population

33 China s Urban Population Percentage of Total, 1990 to 2003 Percent China India

34 Growth in Working Age Population Aged 15-64, In Millions Millions India China India overtakes China

35 China s Unemployment 1990 to 2005 Percent

36 China s Expenses in Education Percentage of GNI, 1990 to 2003 Percent China Japan India U.S.A

37 Fairness of Financial Contribution to Health Systems Score (Ranging from 0.47 to 0.99) China ranks 188 th in the 191 WHO member countries surveyed Japan United Kingdom India Korea United States Mexico China

38 Environmental Sustainability Score (Ranging from 29.2 to 75.1) 65 China ranks 133 th in the 146 countries/regions surveyed Brazil Japan Germany U.S. U.K. Mexico India S. Korea China

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44 CHINA: ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES PLEASE NOTE THAT ALL OPINIONS ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR AND DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT OFFICIAL DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL DEFENCE POLICY

45 Agriculture On average only 25% of fertilizers applied can be absorbed by soil 20% of the country's total farmland is affected by drought, The loss of natural elements due to annual soil erosion is equal to 5 million tons of standard fertilizer Each year, soil erosion causes grain output to reduce by an estimated 2 to 4 billion kilograms More than 25% of the country is now desert 85% of arable land is irrigated compared to just 10% in the US China has the second largest total amount of grasslands in the world however, more than 80% have deteriorated China maintains more than 95% grain self sufficiency despite water shortages and soil erosion

46 Agriculture Heilongjiang Province, China's biggest grain-producing area, might lose its fertile black soil within 50 years The black soil layer is diminishing by about 1 centimetre annually: the thickness in the 1950s was between 60 to 80 centimetres Now the figure has declined to about 20 to 30 centimetres on average It takes 400 years to form a centimetre of the soil. A quarter of all the land in the province is suffering from soil erosion to varying degrees The blame has been placed directly on the destruction of natural vegetation, which allows wind and rain to blow and wash the soil away Soil is disappearing at a rate close to 300 million cubic metres annually Each year soil erosion causes the grain output to reduce by an estimated 2 to 4 billion kilograms

47 Water Less than 14% of China's water is used for maintaining or rehabilitating eco systems 20% is used for industrial and urban purposes, 68% for irrigation Per capita water holdings are on par with Ethiopia At 2,000 cubic meters per person, China meets the World Bank s definition of a water scarce nation Beijing's annual water availability for each person is less than 300 cubic meters on average or 12% of the national average More than 66% of Chinese cities are facing water shortages "The water quality of the country's major rivers has continued to worsen", Sheng Huaren, vice-chairman NPC Standing Committee June 2005

48 Water Due to a six year drought water tables in Beijing dropped by some 1.29 meters per year (2005) Industry loses 27 billion dollars annually due to water shortages China consumed 3,860 cubic meters of water every time it added $10,000 to its GDP, about four times the world average Underground water supplies in 90% of Chinese cities are contaminated with 35% considered undrinkable 20% of water supplies are lost due to leakage in Chinese cities double the average in the US and Japan Less than 50% of urban waste water is treated Some 500 million rural Chinese either drink contaminated water or do not have access to clean water

49 Water The northwestern provinces of China are expected to face a shortage of 6.5 billion cubic meters of water by 2010 Nearly 80% of the Yellow River is polluted The water resources development and utilization rate along the Yellow River valley is as high as 70% 40% is considered a hazardous level The Yangtze is threatened by 28 billion tons of polluted water Total Chinese water consumption increased by 0.5% to reach billion cubic meters in 2005 Monitoring at 411 sections of China's 7 major river systems revealed that 60% of water was unfit for human consumption with 27% considered hazardous

50 Air Pollution 400,000 people die annually from respiratory illness related to air pollution Thermal power generation accounts for 82.6% of total power China has only 2 nuclear power stations in operation at present 90% of new power generation is derived from coal burning Beijing's air quality reached hazardous levels on the 9 th & 10 th of April 2006 Sulfur dioxide levels have increased by 27% since 2000 despite the 10 th Five Year Plan s call for 10% cuts over the same time period Coal consumption was 2.2 billion tons. The 10 th Five Year Plan called for 1.5 billion tons Coal consumption nearly doubled over a decade New electrical generation from coal burning was 20% greater than planned.

51 Air Pollution Double digit increases in vehicle traffic are expected to increase urban air pollution 500 gigawatts of power are required over the next 15 years to meet anticipated demand. This would be the annual equivalent of 80% of Britain s generating capacity China is responsible for some 29% of the world s coal consumption Acid rain fell over more than 40% of the country in 2004 Air pollution is exacerbated by sand storms that blow over the northern parts of the country during the summer and spring months China has 14 of the world s 20 most polluted cities according to a recent World Bank report

52 Role of Environmental Protests in China Dr. Paul J. Smith

53 China s Environmental Situation Environmental protection in China increasingly viewed as key ingredient of social stability General awareness (and fear) of health impacts of pollution Environmental protests are common Rising standard of living = demands for improved environmental protection

54 Case Study: Dongzhou Village (Guangdong), Dec 2005 Representative case study Reflects rising rural discontent that is growing throughout China This particular protest driven by multiple complaints: Lack of compensation for land taken by gov t to build power plant Anger over environmental consequences of power plant

55 Pressure from below The Case for Optimism Environmental awareness, protests and other activism will be catalyst for environmental improvement Similar pattern as Japan, Taiwan, etc. Environmental activism may contribute to democratization in China Government views phenomenon as threat but can also be seen as opportunity