Overview of Global Carbon Emissions and the Nature of Carbon Management Challenges

Transcription

1 Overview of Global Carbon Emissions and the Nature of Carbon Management Challenges Shobhakar Dhakal Executive Director Global Carbon Project (GCP) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan Research Scholar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analyses (IIASA), Austria ESSP

2 Outline 1. CO 2 in climate change context 2. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel and land use change and drivers 3. Natural CO 2 sinks and dynamics 2 y 4. Key carbon challenges 5. Conclusion

3 CO 2 Concentration in Ice Cores and Atmospheric CO 2 Projection for Next 100 Years CO 2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and Projections for Next 100 Years Projected Projected (2100) d(2100) Vostok Vostok Record Record Law IPCC Dome IS92a Record Scenario Mauna Law Dome Loa Record IPCC Mauna IS92a Loa Scenario Record Current (2001) (2008) CO 2 Con ncentration (pp pmv) , , , , Years Before Present (BP 1950) Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; IPCC

4 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Year 1750: 280 ppm (about) Year 2008: 385 ppm 38% above pre-industrial, over 100 ppm rise : 1.3 ppm y : 1.6 ppm y : 1.5 ppm y : 1.9 ppm y -1 Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL Annual Mean Growth Rate

5 Radiative Forcing of Various Greenhouse Gases Radiative forcing is the quantitative measure of the strength of different human and natural agents in causing climate change Anthropogenic radiative forcing strength is far greater than the natural factors such as solar irradiance As a gas, CO2 is of prime importance CO2 has complex dynamic because it is also linked to land and ocean uptakes Global average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005, IPCC AR4 LOSU: Level of scientific understanding In AR4 report, radiative forcing is expressed as change relative to the year 1750 and to a global and annual average value

6 CO2 mitigation challenge is enormous for climate stabilization Current net anthropogenic radiative forcing: 1.6 W/m2 Source: IPCC AR4 WG 3 Report

7 Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production [1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x10 15 g] 2008 (PgC y -1 ) CO 2 em missions el Emission (GtC/y Fossil Fu Emissions 348 PgC emissions in Growth rate: 10% 1.0% per year Growth rate: 3.4% per year Emissions: 8.7 PgC Growth rate: 2.0% 1990 levels: +41% 2000 levels: l +29% Growth rate: 3.4% 1990 Emissions: 6.2 Pg C y Emissions: 8.2 Pg C y -1 Per Capita Emissions (tc person -1 y -1 ) tc/person in 2008 Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; CDIAC Global emission per capita

8 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Fos sil Fuel E mission (G GtC y -1 ) 10 Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center International Energy Agency 9 Projection : 2% growth A1B : 3.4% growth A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2 Projection 2009 Emissions: -2.8% GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7% : -1.1% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009

9 Regional Shift in Emissions Share Perc entage of Globa al Annua al Emiss ions 62% 38% FCCC Kyoto Reference Year 57% 43% Kyoto Protocol Adopted 49.7% 50.3% Kyoto Protocol Enter into Force Annex B countries growing slowly Non-Annex countries growing rapidly Largely China and India China largest emitter: passed USA in 2006 India overtook Russia to become third % 55% 47% 45% Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; CDIAC 2009

10 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total) ons x 1,0 000,000 Car rbon (to 2000 ) China India Russian Fed. USA Japan Time Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009

11 Regional Emission Pathways ( ) C emissions Wealth per capita Population Raupach et al 2007, PNAS C Intensity Developed Countries (-) Developing Countries Rising emission No improvements in carbon intensity Least Developed Countries

12 Cumulative Fraction of Total Fossil Fuel Emissions 2008 Number of Country Cumulative Countries Fraction 1 China USA India Russia Japan Germany Canada UK South Korea Iran Poland (2005) Belarus (2005) Mld Moldova Gregg Marland, CDIAC countries 50% Global Emissions 10 countries 2/3 Global Emissions Top 5 + EU 80% Global Emissions

13 Transport of Embodied Emissions CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 5 55% 5 Annex B Annex B Developed Nations 4 4 Developed Nations 3 45% 3 25% of growth 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B carbon emissions from traded products are assigned to the producers carbon emissions from traded products are assigned to the consumers Share of Non Annex is smaller but rising rapidly Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

14 Additional energy related CO2 emissions by country and region in 2030 vs 2006 (ref scenario) China contributes 20% to global energy related related CO2 emissions in 2006 Additional global CO2 in 2030 over 2006: 12.6 GtCO2, about half from China 2006 GigaTons CO2 Total: OECD : Non OECD : China : 5.65 India : 1.25 (Note: this is CO2 equivalent; NOT Carbon; need to divide by to compare World Energy Outlook, 2008

15 Energy related CO2 emissions in cities by region in the Reference Scenario 11 Gt 30.8 Gt 19.8 Gt Out of 12.6 GtCO2 global CO2 addition in next 25 years, cities contribute 11 Gt or 87% 71% 76% WEO, % of cumulative increase in in urban CO2 comes from non OECD countries (Mostly,India and China)

16 Role of urban area: Global urban population and share ofurban agglomeration by size Share of urban agglomeration size in urban population Urban pop (total pop) 1950: 0.74 bn (2.54) 2005: 3.16 bn (6.51) 2030: 4.96 bn (8.32) 2050: 6.40 bn (9.19) Almost all future global pop growth from urban population, mostly in Asia Additional 1.8 bn in next 25 years ( ), 69.6% mostly in Asia Urban Population 2005: 51.4% Rural Population 70.9% 2007: 50.6% 31.4% <Dhakal, 2009> Based on UN Urban Population Statistics 2007 updates

17 Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008 PgC y -1 ) CO 2 emiss sions (P Fossil fuel Land use change, LUC PgC % of total anthropogenic emissions 2008 CO2 emissions from LUC has significantly decreased from previous year Probably due to wet La Niña conditions and reduced reforestation rate Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009

18 Historical Emissions from Land Use Change yr 1 Pg C y Tropical Deforestation (13 mn hector annually) is mostly responsible Pg C emission in from LUC iktor Boehm Borneo, Courtesy: Vi Sum Latin America S. & SE Asia Africa Net Annual average emissions Total 1.5 PgC/Year (16% of global C emission) Tropical America 41%; 0.6 PgC y -1 Tropical Asia 43%; 0.6 PgC y -1 Tropical Africa 17%; 0.3 PgC y Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005 R.A. Houghton, unpublished

19 Net CO 2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries (TgC y -1 ) CO 2 emis ssions ( 500 Brazil 400 Indonesia % Cameroon Colombia Venezuela Peru Nicaragua Rep.Dem.Congo Nigeria Philippines Nepal India 0 4-2% 2-1% <1% RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO land use change statistics

20 Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction 1. The rate of CO 2 emissions The rate of CO 2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans: Land: CO 2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, Oceans: CO 2 solubility (temperature, salinity), ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press

21 Airborne Fraction Fraction of total CO 2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere Airborne Fracti ion Emissions 1 tco 2 400Kg stay % Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y -1 (p=0.9) 45% Means the efficiency of sinks in removing CO2 from atmosphere has decreased by 5% over the last 50 years, and will continue to do so in the future Emissions 1 tco 2 450Kg stay Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences

22 Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink Part of the growth decline is attributed to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years. This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon. Credit: N.Metzl, Au ugust 2000, oceanograp phic cruise OISO-5 The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters. The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole. Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science

23 CO (PgC y -1 2 flux Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget fossil fuel emissions PgC )7.7 Source Sink deforestation atmospheric CO 2 land ocean (5 models) (4 models) Time () (y) 0.3 Residual Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience

24 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( ) 1.4 PgC y PgC y -1 45% PgC y PgC y 29% -1 55% of emission is taken backby by sink 26% 2.3 PgC y -1 Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated

25 Climate Change at 55% Discount Natural CO 2 sinks absorb 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions slowing down climate change significantly. They are in effect a huge subsidy bid to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS). Courtesy: Pep Canadell, GCP

26 What we need to address for carbon management? Urgency!! Rising CO2 emissions, no peaking soon Time is running out cost of inaction will greatly increase over time Efficiency of natural sink is declining (?) () Deep cuts needed sooner than later Maintaining integrity of source sink sink dynamics Danger of hitting threshold/tipping point

27 What we need to address for carbon Complexity!! Historical responsibilities management? High per capita in developed vs. low per capita in developing countries Rising volume contribution of developing countries Trade and embodied carbon consumer or producer responsibility? Reasonable international and local actions Crafting evidence based global regime Local actions by all countries Assisting developing countries Carbon governance at multiple scales/levels

28 Carbon and 5 A s As Architecture t Carbon mgmt regimes at multiple l scale/levels Agents who can deliver and implement management regimes Adaptiveness of carbon governance regimes in long term under uncertainties of human and social systems Accountability and legitimacy of governance systems Access and allocation addressing fairness and equity

29 Conclusions (i) Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are growing 3.5 times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are tracking the worst case emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Developing Countries are now emitting significantly more carbon than Developed Countries The economic crisis will likely have a transitional impact on the growth of CO 2 emissions i and a undetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO 2 (because the much larger inter annual variability of the natural sinks)

30 Conclusions (ii) The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 5% over the last 60 years (and will continue to do so in the future), a trend not fully captured by climate models. implying i that t the longer it tk takes to begin reducing emissions significantly, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO 2. World needs to act faster and effectively to reduce great costs to human society Carbon governance is crucial at multiple scale/levels and a better knowledge base is needed Asia pacific is a key area for carbon governance

31 Thank you