Improvement of Water Resources Planning in Egypt s Agricultural Sector using the LIBRA-River Basin Simulation Game

Transcription

1 1 Improvement of Water Resources Planning in Egypt s Agricultural Sector using the LIBRA-River Basin Simulation Game Mohie M. Omar, Researcher, Nile Research Institute, National Water Research Center (NWRC), Egypt ABSTRACT Both the limited water resources and the continuous increasing demands are the largest challenges facing the water resources system in Egypt. Agriculture is the biggest water consumer in Egypt with 85% of the total water withdrawals and still requires more water to expand irrigated areas. The current study investigated the possibility of using the LIBRA simulation game to simplify the process of water resources planning in the agricultural sector in Egypt. LIBRA is a Latin word meaning the balance, and it has been chosen as an expression for the balance between water supply and water demand. The current investigations included assessment of impacts of different measures on water demand of the agricultural sector in Egypt. The study compared one basic with two s over a period of 20 years. The basic (pessimistic) assumed neither funds nor investments were allocated for maintenance and rehabilitation of canals, saving and modern irrigation technologies, and water infrastructures improvement. Both the normal and optimistic s assumed two levels of funds and investments. The results showed that the values for funds and investments in the normal had no significant reduction in water losses or water deficit. However, the values of the optimistic achieved significant results which consequently enhanced the agricultural water productivity. In conclusion, the current study proves that funds and investments should reach a specific threshold in order to have potential significant reduction in water deficit. Keywords LIBRA-Egypt, Simulation Games, Water Resources Planning, Water Deficit, Agricultural Sector 1. INTRODUCTION Water is of high importance in Egypt, since it has an arid and semi-arid environment and it depends only on the Nile river as the source of most of the water supply. Domestic, industrial and agricultural water demands are continuously increasing as a result of population increase, which increased from 38 million in 1977 to 87 million in The actual current water resources available in Egypt are 55.5 Billion Cubic Meter per year (BCM/yr) from the Nile River, 1.6 BCM/yr from effective rainfall on the northern strip of the Mediterranean Sea and Sinai, 2.4 BCM from non-renewable deep groundwater for western desert and Sinai, and 6.5 BCM/yr from shallow groundwater. The total water supply is 66 BCM, while the total current water requirement for different sectors is 79.5 BCM/yr. The gap between the needs and availability of water is about 13.5 BCM/yr. This gap is compensated by recycling of drainage water either officially or unofficially [1]. The agricultural sector in Egypt is the largest consumer of water which consumes about of the total withdrawal. In addition to its large demand, the agricultural sector have many challenges which continuously increase the water shortage and raise the complexity of water resources system in Egypt. Among these challenges are: High seepage loss of water from canals to drains especially during the night due to the unwillingness of farmers to irrigate at night. High leakage loss from sides and bottoms of water streams along a 60,000 km of intensive irrigation and drainage network. High evaporation losses and infiltration losses from the fallow agricultural lands. Aquatic weeds growing in the branch canals and meskas consume large quantities of water and hinder water flow and delivery. Many cross sections of water streams are larger than their designed cross sections leading to an inaccuracy in water distribution operation. Defect in control gates of canals and water structures. Expansion of crops consuming large quantities of water such as rice (7000m3/feddan) and sugarcane (11000 m3/feddan). Exceeding the permissible pumping rates of the deep groundwater wells. Lack of control on the unofficial withdrawal of deep ground water in many areas which is accompanied by high and random pumping rates from deep groundwater wells. Damages in drip irrigation systems such as landscaping activities' damages or chewing damages from rodents. The purpose of this study is to conduct a pilot testing of LIBRA simulation game to help in building an insight on

2 2 the water resources planning for the agricultural sector in Egypt. This is achieved through assessment of impacts of different measures on water demand in Egypt. 2. REVIEWING THE LITERATURE The use of simulation tools in understanding, improving and sharing the developed plans might be very useful in enhancing understanding of the issues in an integrated way. Computer supported games offer the potential of creating an environment in which different disciplines come together to develop integrated understanding[2]. Rusca et al., (2012) have investigated the Ravilla simulation game to understand all aspects of integrated water resource management (IWRM)[2]. During the game, every stakeholder became familiar with his roles and functions. The game included environmental and civil society sectors and allowed different institutional arrangements, which illustrated the impacts of reforms on decision-making and different actors. Hoekstra, 2007 developed the River Basin Game as a tool to illustrate the common-pool resource character of water within a river basin. The game objective is to understand the risk of over-abstraction of water within a river basin as a result of its common-pool resource character and the downstream effects of upstream water consumption[3]. Hoekstra et al., (2009) developed the Water Role Play for managing conflict over water as a common-pool resource. The outputs came with some key messages being: i) wise water resources management is not simply a national matter, but to be understood in a global context; ii) global water use efficiency can be increased through wise trade in water-intensive commodities; iii) national water footprints are externalized (contributing to increased water scarcity elsewhere); and iv) water becomes a geopolitical factor (through international resource dependencies)[4]. Other examples are found such as Seibert and Vis (2012) who developed Irrigania game as a web-based game about sharing water resources[5], and Magombeyi et al., (2008) who developed the river basin game for water allocation for irrigation in a river basin[6]. In Egypt, some studies assessed the future situation of water resources system and the impacts of different measures. Omar, 2013 used the RIBASIM model to show that high implementation rates of measures under demand side can reduce the water shortage in Fayoum Governorate, Egypt from 1.85 to 0.59 BCM/yr in the year The tested measures were control of rice area and other crops having high rates of water consumption, application of modern irrigation techniques in new lands, and enhancement of irrigation network efficiency[7]. 3. METHODOLOGY 3.1. LIBRA simulation game LIBRA simulation game was developed by UNESCO-IHE [8]. In general, LIBRA game simplifies the complexity of water resources management and simulates the consequent performance of actions of the autonomous institutions responsible for the sustainable and efficient development and management of the water resources and the infrastructure. The three main institutions are the River Basin Authority (RBA), City Water Utility (CWU) and Irrigation District. In this study, LIBRA game has been adapted to LIBRA- Egypt game which represented Egypt conditions. LIBRA- Egypt had four institutions being; Ministry of water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), Affiliated Companies for Water and Wastewater (CWW), Water Users Associations for Old Lands (WUA-OL), and Water Users Associations for New Lands (WUA-NL). The irrigation sources for WUA-OL were surface water, reused drainage water, and shallow groundwater, however, the source for WUA-NL was the deep groundwater. LIBRA-Egypt game showed that altering the areas of crops, the areas applying modern irrigation techniques in new lands, the irrigation network efficiency, and the number of municipal and industrial communities installing water saving technologies can obviously influence the sustainability, efficiency, and economic performance of water resources system in Egypt Measures and model responses According to (Heun, 2011), LIBRA represents the tested measures and their consequent responses on the agriculture water resources sector. The following functions deeply clarify the reflection and the consequences of the tested measures[8]: AF i e i = ε imin + ε imax ε imin Eq. 1 AF i + α i Where, e i - conveyance efficiency of the main canals - distribution efficiency of the irrigation canal network - distribution efficiency of the city pipeline network - managerial efficiency of the tertiary canal network - field application efficiency of irrigation water ε imax - maximum achievable efficiency of efficiencies [%] ε imin - minimum possible efficiency of efficiencies [%] ε imax &ε imin depend both upon investments, Eq. 2 and 3 AF i - fund for maintenance of main or irrigation canals - fund for irrigation assistance services (field application efficiency); - fund for canal monitoring and control (irrigation managerial efficiency); α i - shape prompter for each type of efficiency and annual fund [ML.E/year].

3 3 ε imax = ε imaxnoinv + ε imaxfullinv ε imaxnoinv I current I full Eq. 2 Where, ε imax - current maximum achievable efficiency, used in Eq. 1, notably for conveyance efficiency of the main canals, distribution efficiency of the irrigation secondary canal, or field application efficiency of irrigation water; ε imaxfullinv - maximum achievable maximum efficiency, ε imaxnoinv - minimum possible maximum efficiency ε imaxfullinv and ε imaxnoinv are defined as parameters in the model (Table. 1); I current - investment and grants I full - investment required to reach the full potential, defined as parameter in model. ε imin = + I current I full Eq. 3 Where, ε imin - current minimum achievable efficiency, used in Eq.1 notably for conveyance efficiency of the main canals, distribution efficiency of the irrigation secondary canal network, or field application efficiency of irrigation water; - minimum achievable maximum efficiency, - minimum possible maximum efficiency, and are defined as parameters in the model (Table. 1); I current - yearly investment and grants I full - investment required to reach the full potential, defined as parameter in the model. By using the previous equations, the responses of every tested measure can be recognized. Three s with different implementation rates were selected (Table. 2). The pessimistic was considered the basic where no funds or investment costs were allocated for maintenance, rehabilitation of canals, saving technologies or modern irrigation techniques. The modest had the values, below which no significant impacts were found. The responses of both pessimistic and modest s were almost the same, although the rates values of pessimistic are zero. The ambitious had rates values having significant and obvious consequences. The game was conducted for many s between the selected s, but only the three s were shown because of their significant impacts. Table 1.Efficiencies parameters in LIBRA game Old Lands New Lands Conveyance efficiency ε imaxnoinv ε imaxfullinv 90 % 80 % Shape factor 800 Distribution efficiency ε imaxnoinv 90 % ε imaxfullinv 80 % 90 % Shape factor 600 Field application efficiency ε imaxnoinv 80 % ε imaxfullinv 90 % 75 % Shape factor 400 Managerial efficiency ε imaxnoinv ε imaxfullinv 75 % Shape factor RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 90 % 80 % 97 % 97 % 75 % Fig. 1, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 show irrigation water demand in million m3 (Mm3) in the new lands, delivered from different water resources in the pessimistic, normal, ambitious s, respectively. It is clear that the water demand increased over time in all s. The ambitious had the highest agricultural area as a result of the highest expansion growth rates of new agricultural lands. Nevertheless, the water deficit almost disappeared in the ambitious. Fig. 4, Fig. 5, and 6 show the distribution of irrigation water volumes including water losses in the new lands for the next 20 years for the three s. The water volume to crops was the highest in the ambitious, since the growth of new agricultural area was the highest. Nevertheless, the total volume of irrigation water was almost equal for all s. This is because the volumes of distribution and application losses were the lowest in the ambitious

4 4 Table 2. Ratios of measures for the s Measures Sub-measures Pessimistic Modest Ambitious Maintenance Maintenance of main canals expenditures for to reduce main canals (MLE) water losses. (Eq 1, 2, & 3) Maintenance Maintenance of of the canals costs in old distribution network lands (MLE) (Eq 1, 2, & 3) Rehabilitation of irrigation canals in old lands (MLE) (Eq 1, 2, & 3) Rehabilitation of canals in new lands (MLE) (Eqs. 1, 2, and 3) Fund for improvement of Monitoring and control of water flow in flow-water the canals infrastructure in old lands (MLE) (Eq. 3) Improvement of flow-water infrastructure in new lands (MLE) (Eq. 3) Water saving Fund for technologies technologies in new lands (MLE) (Eqs. 1, 2, and 3) Investment in technology &modern irrigation techniques (MLE) (Eqs. 1, 2, and 3) Expansion of Growth rate of new new areas area (%/) The volumes of distribution and application losses were almost equal in both the pessimistic and normal s indicating that increasing the general maintenance funds for main canals to only 400 MLE/year, increasing the costs of rehabilitation of irrigation canals in new lands to 125 MLE/year, increasing the investments for improvement of flow-water management infrastructure in new lands to 75 MLE/year, and increasing the investment costs in technology and modern irrigation techniques to 150 MLE/year had no significant influence on these losses (eq. 1). According to eq (1), the funds and investments in canals maintenance and modern irrigation systems obviously caused a severe reduction in distribution and application water losses. Therefore, the severe reduction in water deficit in the ambitious has been achieved as responses to the following measures: i) increasing the general maintenance funds for main canals from 400 MLE/year in the normal to 800 MLE/year, ii) increasing the costs of rehabilitation of irrigation canals in new lands from 125 to 250 MLE/year, iii) increasing the investments for improvement of flow-water management infrastructure in new lands from 75 to 125 MLE/year, and iv) increasing the investment costs in technology and modern irrigation techniques from 150 to 500 MLE/year (eq. 1). Fig. 1 Irrigation water demand delivered from different water resources in new lands in pessimistic Fig. 2 Irrigation water demand from different resources in new lands in normal

5 5 Fig. 3 Irrigation water demand delivered from different water resources in new lands in ambitious Fig. 4 Irrigation water volumes in new lands in the pessimistic Fig. 5 Irrigation water volumes in new lands in the normal Fig. 6 Irrigation water volumes in new lands in the ambitious Similarly, Fig. 7, Fig. 8 and Fig. 9 also show the irrigation water demand in old lands delivered from different water resources in the three s. The water demand were equal in the next years in all s because there was no space for expansion projects in old lands. The water deficit was observed through all months of every year except January and February in the pessimistic and normal s. For the ambitious, there was no water deficit in January and February so as the summer period (from July to October). In addition, the water deficit volume was always lowest in the ambitious. Fig. 10, Fig. 11, and 12 show the distribution of irrigation water volumes including water losses in old lands for the next 20 years for the three s, respectively. The total volumes of irrigation water were almost equal in all s. In the ambitious, the highest volume to crops, the lowest volume of drainage water reuse, and the lowest distribution losses were observed through the next 20 years. According to eq (1), this reduction in water losses and water deficit in the ambitious were achieved because of the following actions: i) doubling the general maintenance costs of main canals from 400 MLE/year in the normal to 800 MLE/year, ii) doubling the rehabilitation costs of branch canals from 300 MLE/year to 600 MLE/year, iii) trebling the rehabilitation of branch irrigation canals costs from 400 MLE/year in the normal to 1200 MLE/year, and iv) increasing the annual fund for improvement of flow-water management infrastructure in old lands from 300 MLE/year to 500 MLE/year.

6 6 Fig. 7 Irrigation water demand delivered from different water resources in old lands in pessimistic Fig. 10 Irrigation water volumes in old lands in the ambitious Fig. 8 Irrigation water demand delivered from different water resources in old lands in normal Fig. 11 Irrigation water volumes in old lands in the normal Fig. 9 Irrigation water demand delivered from different water resources in old lands in ambitious Fig. 12 Irrigation water volumes in old lands in the ambitious From above, it is very clear that allocating funds and investments for maintenance and rehabilitation of canals, for saving and modern irrigation technologies, and for and water infrastructures improvement might not significantly reduce the water losses unless they reach a specific

7 7 threshold. Above this threshold, a sever reduction in water deficit and an increase in the agricultural water productivities (crop productivity per water volume) are achieved.. 5. CONCLUSION In this study, LIBRA-Egypt simulation game produces a simplified representation of the water resources planning in the agricultural sector in Egypt. The general maintenance funds of main canals, the rehabilitation of branch and tertiary canals in the old agricultural lands, and the improvement of water infrastructures should reach a specific threshold in order to have a potential significant impact on water deficit. Here in this study, 800 MLE/yr for general maintenance of main canals, 1200 MLE/yr for rehabilitation of branch and tertiary canals significantly, and 500 MLE/yr for improvement of water infrastructures reduced the total water deficit and eliminated the deficit in the summer periods for the next 20 years. [5] Seibert, J. and Vis, M. J. P., Irrigania a web-based game about sharing water resources, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 9, , doi: /hessd [6] Magombeyi, M. S., Rollin, D., and Lankford, B., The river basin game as a tool for collective water management at community level in South Africa, Phys. Chem. Earth, 33, [7] Omar M. Evaluation of actions for better water supply and demand management in Fayoum, Egypt using RIBASIM. 2013; Water Science 27: pp: journal homepage: [8] Heun, J. C., 2011: LIBRA simulation of integrated river basin planning, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands. Similarly, 800 MLE/yr for general maintenance of main canals, 250 MLE/yr for rehabilitation of branch canals, 125 MLE/yr for investments for improvement of flowwater management infrastructures, and 500 MLE/yr for investments in saving technologies and modern irrigation techniques significantly reduced the distribution and application losses in the new agricultural lands, and hence reduced the water deficit. In addition, The growth rate of new agricultural lands increased from 1% to 2% in the next 20 years without any increase in the total volumes of irrigation water. REFERENCES [1] NWRP/MWRI. National Water Resources Plan/Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Egypt. Final Report: The National Water Resources Plan for Egypt [2] Rusca, R., Heun, J., Schwartz, K Water management simulation games and the construction of knowledge. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, [3] Hoekstra, A. Y., River basin game, available at: www. waterfootprint.org/page=files/riverbasingame, last access: 11 July 2012, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands, [4] Hoekstra, A. Y., Mekonnen, M, M., and Gerbes- Leens, P, W., Role play on globalization of water management: Interactive learning about water footprint and virtual water trade, available at: last access: 11 July 2012, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands, 2007/World bank Institute, Washington D.C, USA.