Voluntary risks are those associated with activities that we decide to undertake (e.g., driving a car, riding a motorcycle, smoking cigarettes).

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1 What is Risk? Risk is the chance of injury, damage, or loss. Therefore, to put oneself "at risk" means to participate either voluntarily or involuntarily in an activity or activities that could lead to injury, damage, or loss.

2 Voluntary risks are those associated with activities that we decide to undertake (e.g., driving a car, riding a motorcycle, smoking cigarettes).

3 Involuntary risks are those associated with activities that happen to us without our prior consent or knowledge. Acts of nature such as being struck by lightning, fires, floods, tornados, etc., and exposure to environmental contaminants are examples of involuntary risks.

4 Verifiable or Non Verifiable Statistically verifiable risks are risks for voluntary or involuntary activities that have been determined from direct observation. Can be compared to each other. Statistically non verifiable risks are risks from involuntary activities that are based on limited data sets and mathematical equations. Can compare with each other but not with statistical verifiable

5 Measuring Risk Risk Assessment Tools Risk Management Risk Policy

6 Examples of Risk Assessments and Analysis in Larger Context Business Assessment Trade Risk Analysis Political Risk Assessment & Management Human Health Biological Assessments

7 EPA Authority to regulate forms of pollution (for example, pesticides, solid wastes, and industrial chemicals) as they affect different aspects of the environment (for example, air quality, water quality, human health, and plant and animal wildlife).

8 EPA Risk Assessment Legislation Four major program offices: 1) air and radiation, 2) water, 3) solid waste and emergency response, and prevention, 4)pesticides, and toxic substances.

9 Clean Water Act Standards adequate to protect public health and the environment from any reasonably anticipated adverse effects (CWA 405 (d)(2)(d)).

10 Clean Air Act Directs the agency to develop criteria reflecting the latest scientific knowledge and, on the basis of those criteria, to issue national primary ambient air quality standards to protect public health with an adequate margin of safety (CAA 108,109).

11 Toxic Substances Control Act to assure [that technologic] innovation and commerce in such chemical substances and mixtures do not present an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment (TSCA 2 (b)(3)). Under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), one criterion for registering (licensing) a pesticide is that it will perform its intended function without unreasonable adverse effects on human health and the environment (FIFRA 3).

12 Superfund National Contingency Plan criteria and priorities [for responding to releases of hazardous substances] shall be based upon relative risk or danger to public health or welfare or the environment (CERCLA 105 (a)(8)(a)).

13 Steps used for EPA Hazards and Remediation 1. Develop a conceptual model, 2. Determining appropriate preliminary remediation goals for screening/comparisons, 3. Identify and select the chemicals or agents of potential concern, 4. Extract information for a toxicity assessment, 5. Calculating risk/hazards, and 6. Documenting portions of the risk assessment report.

14 EPA process

15 EPA Guidance and Models Vast information available and useful for many scientists Global climate change Water Quality Air Quality

16 Models and Web Cites Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) 2009 U.S. EPA. BASINS 4.0 Climate Assessment Tool (CAT): Supporting Documentation and User's Manual (Final Report). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, EPA/600/R- 08/088F, 2009.

17 Water Erosion Prediction Project-Climate Assessment Tool - epa WEPPCAT:An Online Tool for Assessing and Managing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Loading to Streams Using the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model y.cfm?deid=153583

18 Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystems tools tems.html

19 ADAPT - epa ADAPT is a powerful, online tool that guides local government users through a planning process known as the Five Milestones for Climate Adaptation

20 CAPPA international initiative Climate and Air Pollution Planning Assistant (CAPPA) Established by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, the official name is now ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability

21 GHG Greenhouse Gas Accounting Protocols hg-protocol/community-greenhouse-gasemissions-inventory-protocol

22 CAPPA Climate and Air Pollution Planning Assistant (CAPPA) tool

23 CADDIS CADDIS: The Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System developed to help scientists and engineers in the Regions, States, and Tribes conduct causal assessments in aquatic systems

24 Ultimate Goal is Decision support Merging of decision and technical contexts is to identify the policy options that are robust across the range of scenarios and endpoints considered in the vulnerability assessment, including identifying tradeoffs between competing options and unintended consequences of particular actions. To most fully achieve this goal, it is necessary to develop and apply not simply simulation models designed to elicit understanding of key interactions in the system being studied, but also models that can be applied directly as decision support tools in a management context.

25 Ecosystem Management Decision support System EMDS

26 Multi Criteria Decision Analysis Multi criteria decision analysis

27 Multi criteria decision analysis Multi attribute utility- social factors Analytical hierarchy based on pairwise comparisons Ranking of attributes

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29 Environmental Assessment Significant Guidance Documents opic.html Framework for Risk Assessments

30 Risk of Population Extinction

31 Population Viability Analysis Calculating probability populations or species extinction Attempts to take into account everything known and unknown Calculation of Time to Extinction a probability distribution Risk is a combined function of the distribution of time to extinction and assigning of costs to extinctions at various times (eg costs in distant future are of lower cost)

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33 PVA Caution - past does not predict future Eg Identify amount of remaining habitat and assume it will remain Must model realistic future projections

34 ESA and PVA Endangered applies to a population for which the probability of extinction within some specified time interval exceeds some maximum tolerable level. Policy goals e.g. 5% probability in 100 years Decisions for listing depend on determination whether probability of extinction by time H exceeds some critical probability C

35 Criteria for Recovery Recovery plan or habitat conservation plan Proposed actions if implemented achieve conditions under which probability of extinction by time H is less than C. Criterion for jeopardy might be that a proposed action will, if implemented, increase the probability of extinction by time horizon H to a level above C.

36 The Bottom Line Determination of the probability of extinction within time H Contributing factors genetics captive breeding, incidental take, habitat protection, habitat loss, metapopulation structure, density dependence, trends in population size, trends in habitat quality

37 Calculation of Extinction Correctness of calculation Truth of result Not a risk analysis but a risk prediction

38 Frequentist and Bayesian The frequentists reports probability as the long-run expected frequency of occurrence. P(A) = n/n, where n is the number of times event A occurs in N opportunities. The Bayesian probability is related to degree of belief. It is a measure of the plausibility of an event given incomplete knowledge, and is changed over time with new evidence.

39 Bayes, Frequentist, or Combination for Probability Subjective use of known reality or perceived reality Frequentist unlimited cases in universe dominated by Fisherian theory that there is a true mean.. Combination of empirical histogram of information from experience and use Bayesian calculations to narrow the distribution

40 Risk Reporting for Extinction Conditional probability Conditional on the data

41 Examples of Risk Framework Approach to Assessment Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Likely Impacts Species A Medium Low Medium high? Species B High High medium? Species C High Small Very high Species D Small High Very low Species E Small Medium Low Species F Medium Small High

42 Risk assessments you may need to understand or conduct Exotic Species Introductions GMO Aquaculture Toxic Chemicals Thermal Regimes ESA

43 Risk Assessment for Alien Fishes in N. America C. Kolar and D Lodge, Science 298: Trade and tourism globalization has provided mechanisms Need for Overview of Critical Elements

44 Great Lakes Empirical Data Life history characteristics Aspects of Invasion history and human use

45 Methods Discriminate Analysis and Decision Tree Approach of Life history successful fishes grew faster, tolerated wider ranges of temperature and salinity. Rapid spreading fish had slower relative growth rates, tolerated wider temperature range, had smaller eggs.

46 Establishment Fail Success Spread Impact Fast Slow Nuisance Non Nuisance

47 Summary of Pathway Analysis