Climate Change, Air Pollution and Health in South Africa. Eugene Cairncross; Aqiel Dalvie; Rico Euripidou; James Irlam; Rajen Naidoo

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1 Climate Change, Air Pollution and Health in South Africa Eugene Cairncross; Aqiel Dalvie; Rico Euripidou; James Irlam; Rajen Naidoo

2 Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century The Lancet, 373 (9676): , 16 May 2009

3 The Lancet DOI: ( /S (15) ) Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

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5 Energy, Air Pollution & Health Figure 10 The Lancet DOI: ( /S (15) ) The Lancet DOI: ( /S (15) ) Copyright 2015 Elsevier Ltd Terms and Conditions

6 SA s Carbon intensity SA among top ten global CO 2 emitters (IEA, 2015): Coal-fired power stations (CFPS); Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) synfuels process; Increase in road freight & private transport; Energy-intensive industries e.g. mining and metals production. Eskom delaying expansion of renewable energy

7 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Total GHG emissions, 2010: Mt CO 2-eq. Source: 2010 GHG emissions inventory

8 Burden of Disease due to Outdoor Air Pollution in urban SA Norman et.al. 2007: 5.1% of all respiratory cancers (trachea, bronchus & lung) 3.7% of all cardiopulmonary deaths in adults > 30 years 1.1% of all acute respiratory-related deaths in children under 5 TOTAL mortality = deaths ( 0.9% [ %] ) TOTAL morbidity = YLL ( 0.4% [ %] ) Wichmann & Voyi, 2012: CVD mortality in Cape Town related to increase in NO2, PM10, and SO2 in warm season only ( ) Children, people with pre-existing respiratory diseases, & the elderly are most at risk

9 Health Risks from Climate Change in SA Higher mean temperatures More droughts & heatwaves & wildfires Coastal & inland flooding Increased AP childhood diarrhoea (Musengimana et al, 2016) respiratory infections & asthma (Thompson et al 2012) malaria & meningitis (Thompson et al 2012) heat stress (Matthee 2010)

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11 Key Points 1. The health risks of climate change (CC) and air pollution (AP) are significant due to SA s carbon intensity, severe AP, poor air quality monitoring and highly vulnerable groups 2. Local epidemiological studies & disease surveillance are limited 3. CC mitigation is urgently required in all sectors: energy, industry, housing, transport, health care and business 4. The public health community should urge further research and action at all levels

12 Conclusions 1 Sectoral Measures to Mitigate Emissions 1. Energy : advocate for rapid and just transition to renewable energy 2. Industry: improve technological & process efficiency; decommission the CTL plant 3. Human Settlements: promote energy efficiency; use alternatives (biogas; rooftop solar); offer energy subsidies for the poor 4. Transport: better public transport & NMT; road freight to rail; greater fuel & systems efficiency 5. Business sector: incentivise energy efficiency and green building practices 6. Health Care: decarbonise by means of greater energy, water & waste disposal efficiency; educate staff and patients

13 Conclusions 2 Improved Governance More budget for monitoring AP, GHG emissions & climate parameters e.g. ambient air temperatures Improve DEA capacity to oversee measuring, reporting and verifying sectoral emissions (DEA, 2016a)

14 Conclusions 3 Stronger Public Health Advocacy 1. Scale up the renewable energy programme 2. Green the health sector 3. More health promotion about CC & AP 4. Better monitoring of AQ and enforcement of AP legislation 5. Better surveillance of health impacts 6. More funding and development of research capacity

15 The Impact of Coal Fired Power Stations in the Highveld Priority Area (HPA) Liz McDaid

16 HPA How to Prevent Action

17 AQ Monitoring stations and power stations in Highveld Priority Area

18 Sources of pollutants

19 HPA power stations, Eskom monitoring stations and DEA monitoring stations

20 Monitoring stations 2017 DEA Emalahleni Eskom - Komati village Eskom -Kriel village DEA -Secunda

21 Exceedances of Air Quality Standards Annual PM2.5 in Mpumalanga Highveld Priority Area SA NAAQS μg/m 3 WHO Cairncross, E. (2016). The State of South Africa s Air Quality Monitoring Network and Its Air Quality. Paper presented at the National Association for Clean Air.

22 Annual Emissions by Eskom CFPS

23 Annual Emissions per unit of coal-generated electricity

24 UNITS: Annual SO2 Emissions by AQ Monitoring Site Source:

25 UNITS: Seasonal SO2 Levels at AQ Monitoring Sites Summer vs. Winter Source:

26 pollution Levels for Secunda (source of data SAAQIS) 00:00 6:00 12:00 18:00

27 Source: SAAQIS, Eskom Diurnal SO2 Levels for Emalahleni (source of data SAAQIS)

28 HPA power stations, Eskom monitoring stations and DEA monitoring stations

29 DEA MSRG presentation of the State of the Air report 2017

30 PM10, SO2, NOx emissions by source (HPA AQMP 2008)

31 PM10, SO2, NOx emissions by source (HPA midterm review 2016)

32 PM10, SO2, NOx emissions by source (Midterm review 2016 vs. HPA AQMP 2008)

33 Eskom CFPS in the HPA Key Points 1. Observed decline in total CFP emissions per year ( ) 2. Annual Emissions per unit of coal-generated electricity have not changed since Half of all outdoor AP-related respiratory admissions and deaths in the HPA are due to Eskom s emissions 4. Health impact of outdoor AP from Eskom CFPs is 3 x greater than impact of indoor AP