Clean energy technologies: tracking progress and the role of digitalization

Transcription

1 Clean energy technologies: tracking progress and the role of digitalization Peter Janoska and George Kamiya, Energy Environment Division, IEA COP23 16 November 2017 IEA OECD/IEA 2017

2 The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions that is enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA

3 How far can technology take us? GtCO 2 40 Reference Technology Scenario RTS Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO 2 reductions Global CO 2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario 2DS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario B2DS Efficiency 40% 34% Efficiency 40% Renewables Renewables 35% 15% 35% Fuel switching Fuel 5% switching 5% 18% Nuclear 6% Nuclear CCS 14% 6% 1% Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in CCS 14% 32% Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.

4 Measuring the progress of technology for low carbon transition Technology Status today against 2DS targets On track Accelerated improvement needed Not on track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, But many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential

5 Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS Last year Last Decade GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.

6 gco 2 /kwh Indicators of energy system transformation : Power sector example 600 Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios Energy Efficiency 12% Electricity Networks 14% Thermal Power 7% Power Generation 23% Coal 4% Historic 2DS average 2DS new build 100 Oil & Gas 46% The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO 2 per kilowatt hour (gco 2 /kwh) in 2025 and close to zero gco 2 /kwh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction.

7 USD (2016) billion Measuring long term technology development: spending on R&D Global clean energy RD&D spending Top 3 IT company R&D spenders Mission Innovation Private Public Top 3 firms Global RD&D spending plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost. coming mostly from governments.

8 Tap all the potential: Complementary public and private RD&D is needed Venture Capital investment breakdown for 2016 Energy efficiency (except transport) CCS Solar Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Transport Hydro and marine Nuclear Hydrogen and fuel cells Energy storage Other IEA member country spending in 2016 Public and private sector invest in different type of innovation. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Public spending supports technologies that are further from the market or have high development and coming mostly from governments. demonstration costs, including nuclear, CCS and ocean energy.

9 Drivers of digitalization: data, analytics, and connectivity = EV batteries Utility-scale PV 40 Data storage 20 Internet bandwidth Sources: Sensors Based on BNEF (2017), Utilities, Smart Thermostats and the Connected Home Opportunity; Holdowsky et al. (2015), Inside the Internet of Things; IEA (2017), Renewables; Tracking Clean Energy Progress; World Energy Investment; Navigant Research (2017), Market data: Demand Response. Global Capacity, Sites, Spending and Revenue Forecasts. Data collection, storage, and transmission costs have declined by over 90% since 2008

10 Digitalization is impacting all energy demand and supply sectors Schlumberger Digital technologies can help improve safety, productivity, and efficiency of energy systems

11 and fundamentally transforming the energy system Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles,

12 and fundamentally transforming the energy system Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles; digital technologies enable a multi-directional and highly integrated energy system

13 Synergies with innovation and clean energy technologies Innovation - AI, machine learning, and digital twins in industrial design Electric vehicles - Autonomous and shared mobility: favours lower O&M costs of EVs - Smart charging and V2G: providing grid services Renewable energy - Generation and transmission: reduced costs and extended lifetimes - Integration of variable renewables - Digital tools can facilitate distributed energy resources, e.g. rooftop solar

14 Conclusions Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly Energy metrics can help unpack what clean energy transition means and how it can be measured. Digitalization could help in the deployment of clean energy technologies Policy will play a critical role in capturing opportunities of digitalization while managing emerging risks

15 The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions that is enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA

16 iea.org IEA

17 GW GW The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW) Globally installed electricity storage (GW) non-phs Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.

18 Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical Global electric car fleet Others Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway 500 Japan USA China The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support

19 TWh TWh Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies PV Onshore Wind Data Forecast Target Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over

20 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building construction Transport biofuels On track Accelerated improvement needed Not on track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.