Integrating LCA-based indicators in the Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model

Transcription

1 WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN HEUTE FÜR MORGEN Kathrin Volkart :: PhD student :: Paul Scherrer Institute Integrating LCA-based indicators in the Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model 3 November 2016, 3 rd Educational Workshop of the Simulation Lab, ETH Zurich

2 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 2

3 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 3

4 Technology Assessment group(p. Burgherr) PSI Energy& Environment General Energy Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis Technology Assessment group( Page 5

5 Energy Economics group (T. Kober) PSI Energy& Environment General Energy Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis Energy Economics group ( Page 6

6 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 7

7 Energy systems analysis The goalis the evaluation of the transitions of the energy systems: Capacity expansion Impacts of carbon policies Resource depletion and use Technology learning Challenges Long timescales are too long to make accurate predictions Uncertainty regarding future supply options Uncertainty regarding future energy demand A possible solutionare what if scenario analysis with energyeconomic system models WEC/PSI (2013) Page 8

8 Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Partial equilibrium energy system model based on the MARKAL framework Technology rich, bottom-up model (~300 processes) Global with explicit representation of 15 world regions Time horizon of 100 years Least cost optimization Developed at PSI over the last 15 years Barreto, 2001 Rafaj, 2005 Gület al., 2009 Densing et al., 2011 WEC/PSI, 2013 Panos et al., 2015 & 2016 WEC/PSI/Accenture, 2016 Source: WEC/PSI (2013) Page 9

9 Reference energy system Exogenous end-use energy demand Supply allocation Source: WEC/PSI (2013) Page 10

10 Objective function of the MARKAL models Total discounted system cost of each region over the entire horizon (simplified): " ",,, + (_,, _,, ), = _! Total discounted system cost over all regions (objective function): _! = _! SOLVE RMRK MINIMIZING R_TOTOBJZ USING LP Page 11

11 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 12

12 Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Life-cycle assessment = LCA = Ökobilanz Method for determining the environmental impacts of a product or service from the cradle to the grave Resource extraction Material transport and processing Product production, distribution and use Disposal and recycling Goal and scope Inventory Impact assessment Interpretation Source: ISO Page 13

13 Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Electricity [1 kwh] Environmental impact (emissions, etc.) direct Plant construction «foreground» Plant operation Decommissioning indirect «background» Fuels Electricity Material Transports Courtesy: C. Bauer Page 14

14 Life-cycle inventory (LCI) database ecoinvent Swiss Centre For Life Cycle Inventories Web-based, commercial database First version in based on work from on Life-cycle Inventories of Energy Systems at ETHZ and PSI Content of the database > processes Many processes from the energy sector, further processes from construction, metal, chemical, agricultural and other sectors Focus on Switzerland and Europe, extension in progress ~1000 environmental flows: Emissions to air, water and soil Use of energy and non-energy resources Land use Page 15

15 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 16

16 Integration of LCA-based indicators Motivation Source: WEC/PSI (2013) Air pollution..? Non-energy resources..? Land use..? Idea: Integration of environmental indicators in energy system models Research questions: How can LCA-based indicators be integrated in existing energy system models without double-counting of impacts? What are the environmental impacts of the global energy system from a lifecycle perspective? Page 17

17 Integration of LCA-based indicators Life-cycle impacts for ~300 processes and 15 regions hard coal electricity coal power plant life-cycle impacts per activity life-cycle impacts per capacity Page 18

18 Integration of LCA indicators 1) Identification of GMM processes with impacts (226 of 316 processes) 2) Allocation of one LCI dataset to each GMM process 3) Identification of the upstream and infrastructure processes of each LCI dataset 4) Preparing LCI background database to avoid double-counting 5) Calculation of the life-cycle impacts Page 19

19 Life-cycle inventory (LCI) Product Outputs Inputs and environmental flows Continues Page 20

20 Integration of LCA-based indicators 1) Identification of GMM processes with impacts (226 of 316 processes) 2) Allocation of one LCI dataset to each GMM process 3) Identification of the upstream and infrastructure processes of each LCI dataset 4) Preparing LCI background database to avoid double-counting 5) Calculation of the life-cycle impacts Page 21

21 Integration of LCA-based indicators 1 kwh electricity from hard coal Hard coal Power plant Other resources Energy Materials Emissions Waste = upstream = infrastructure = operation life-cycle impact per capacity life-cycle impact per activity Page 22

22 Integration of LCA-based indicators 1) Identification of GMM processes with impacts (226 of 316 processes) 2) Allocation of one LCI dataset to each GMM process 3) Identification of the upstream and infrastructure processes of each LCI dataset 4) Preparing LCI background database to avoid double-counting 5) Calculation of the life-cycle impacts Page 23

23 Avoid double-counting of impacts All direct impacts of the energy system are represented by the LCA-indicators Parts of these impacts of the energy system are represented again (doublecounting) by the LCA-based indicators Source: WEC/PSI (2013) Page 24

24 Integration of LCA-based indicators 1) Identification of GMM processes with impacts (226 of 316 processes) 2) Allocation of one LCI dataset to each GMM process 3) Identification of the upstream and infrastructure processes of each LCI dataset 4) Preparing LCI background database to avoid double-counting 5) Calculation of the life-cycle impacts Page 25

25 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integration of LCA-based indicators in the GMM model Results for the World Energy Scenarios Outlook Page 26

26 World Energy Council (WEC) Formed in 1923 UN-accredited global energy body More than 3000 member organisations located in over 90 countries representing the entire energy spectrum from governments, private and state corporations, academia, NGOs and energy-related stakeholders. Network of leaders and practitioners promoting an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive energy system for the greatest benefit of all. Informs global, regional and national energy strategies by hosting high-level events, publishing authoritative studies, and working through its extensive member network to facilitate the world s energy policy dialogue. Regular studies: World Energy Resources World Energy Trilemma World Energy Issues Monitor World Energy Scenarios Source: Page 27

27 World Energy Scenarios (2013) Source: Page 28

28 World Energy Scenarios (2016) Update 2016 The Grand Transition Presented 3 weeks ago in Istanbul Source: WEC/PSI/Accenture (2016) Page 29

29 Preliminary results Particulates, NH 3, NMVOC, etc. CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, SF 6, etc. NH 3, NO x, SO x Page 30

30 Conclusions and Limitations Conclusions on the results In SYMPHONY, the global warming potential is reduced, while it is stable in JAZZ, as expected from the CO 2 emission trajectories. Climate change mitigation, here represented by the SYMPHONY pathway, can have co-benefits. The results could be validated for the base year. Contributions Life-cycle impacts for the whole energy system (not only electricity) Explicit addressing of double-counting of impacts Application to the World Energy Scenarios Uncertainties & Limitations Matching of the processes (technology, region) Modelling of technology improvement ecoinvent as background database Page 31

31 Outline My background Global Multi-regional MARKAL (GMM) model Life-cycle assessment (LCA) Integrating LCA-based indicators in the GMM model World energy scenarios Outlook Page 32

32 Outlook Final results Switch to the most recent model version and scenarios Polishing the LCA impacts Energy Trilemma Two PhD students Consequential LCA future ecoinvent Page 33

33 Wir schaffen Wissen heute für morgen I would like to thank Dr.M. Densing Dr.C. Mutel Prof. A. Wokaun for their support and advice. Thank you for the attention! Page 34