REGIONAL TIMES MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE FUTURE USE OF BIOMASS AND BIOFUELS IN FRANCE AND SWEDEN

Transcription

1 REGIONAL TIMES MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE FUTURE USE OF BIOMASS AND BIOFUELS IN FRANCE AND SWEDEN Nicklas Forsell Gilles Guerassimoff Dimitris Athanassiadis Edi Assoumou IEW 21-23/06/2010 Stockholm Sweden Centre for Applied Mathematics, Mines ParisTech Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences

2 Overview of the presentation 2/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Context Objectives Model and assumptions Modeling Case study of France Case study of Sweden Scenarios Results Conclusion and perspectives

3 Context 3/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Biomass and biofuels are increasingly being seen as important energy sources in Europe The incorporation and future use of biomass sources are however highly uncertain Which land areas are available without competition with food supply? Which sources of biomass can be used? What is the possible incorporation rate of conversion technologies? What is the limit of domestic bioenergy production? To answer these questions, prospective studies are helpful to policy makers

4 Objectives 4/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective A MARKAL/TIMES model of the use of biomass was created Detailed representation of biomass sources (agriculture & forestry) Sub-national/regional representation of the biomass sources Rich technological database (1 st and 2 nd generation) Case studies of France and Sweden, assessing the use of biomass for energy purposes Possible contribution of biomass to the energy sector Technologies utilized to convert biomass Regional utilization of biomass sources

5 MARKAL/TIMES model 5/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Considered time horizon: The model only considers: Available agricultural land for energy without food competition Available wood for energy without competing with other sectors Detailed technology database including the most promising 2 nd generation biofuel production Biomass-To-Liquids (BTL) processes 2 nd generation cellulosic ethanol processes Considers co-products by the conversion technologies

6 MARKAL/TIMES model 6/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective General outline of the sub-national MARKAL/TIMES model was created

7 Case study of France 7/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective In the model, France is divided into 9 regions Each region has a detailed economic description (cost of production and transport by resource) Potentials and cost of biomass sources according to the VALERBIO project

8 Case study of France 8/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Maize grain Maize straw Wheat grain Starch crops Wheat straw Tricale grain Tricale straw Sugar crops Sugar beet Generation 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 1 st Bio-diesel Bio-ethanol X X X X FT-diesel X X X Bio-HVO Oil crops Woody crops Grassy crops Forestry products Rapeseed Sunflower Soy bean Generation 1 st, 2 nd 1 st, 2 nd 1 st, 2 nd 2 nd 2 nd 2 nd Bio-diesel X X X Bio-ethanol X X X FT-diesel X X X Bio-HVO X X X

9 Case study of France 9/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Amount of available forest defined per: Region 9 regions Wood types Small wood (crown & small branches) Medium wood (top stem & large branches) Big wood (stem) Accessibility classes Easy Moderately difficult Difficult Very difficult Top and small branches Branches Top stem Stem

10 Case study of Sweden 10/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective In the model, Sweden is divided into 21 counties Forestry resources expressed on county level Agricultural resources expressed on a national level AB C D E F G H I K M N O S T U W X Y Z AC BD Stockholm Uppsala Södermanland Östergötland Jönköping Kronoberg Kalmar Gotland Blekinge Skåne Halland Västra Götaland Värmland Örebro Västmanland Dalarna Gävleborg Västernorrland Jämtland Västerbotten Norrbotten

11 Case study of Sweden 11/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Agricultural resources: Expressed on a national level Potentials according to the RES2020 project Costs according to an extensive literature review Starch crops Sugar crops Oil crops Woody crops Grassy crops Forestry products Generation 1 st 2 nd 1 st 1 st, 2 nd 2 nd 2 nd 2 nd Bio-diesel X Bio-ethanol X X X X X FT-diesel X X X X Bio-HVO X

12 Case study of Sweden 12/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Forestry resources separated into: Forestry residues (crown & branches) Pulpwood (top stem & small stems) Detailed cost-supply curves of forestry residues for each county Pulpwood expressed on a national level Cost of supply in SEK ,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3, Ton DS

13 Scenarios 13/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Numerous potential level scenarios were created considering aspects such as: Business as usual (BAU) All for industry (wood and/or agricultural crops are mostly used for non-energy purposes) All for energy (wood and/or agricultural crops are mostly used for energy purposes) Medium/ high availability of short rotation forestry Moderate/ high price of biomass

14 Scenarios 14/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Numerous demand level scenarios were created considering: Heat for direct heating Heat from CHP Biofuels for road transport Biofuels for air transport Electricity from CHP 25 7 Mtoe Total demand bioenergy Heat from CHP Electricity from CHP Biofuel for road transport Biofuel for air transport Mtoe Total demand bio energy Heat from CHP Electricity from CHP Biofuel bioethanol Biofuel biodiesel Heat only Heat only France Sweden

15 Results 15/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Mix of technologies for biofuel production in France Mtoe Import ethanol BTL wood BTL straw G2 ethanol wood G2 ethanol straw Sugar beet ethanol Cereal ethanol Biodiesel V_SC_D1_P1 V_SC_D2_P1 V_SC_D3_P1

16 Results 16/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective Marginal price and regional utilization of forest residues in Sweden % utilization of regional supply % utilization of regional supply 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% SE_D1_P SWE SE_D1_P2 D1 P2 Cost of supply in SEK ,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3, Ton DS Marginal price 2050 for SE_D1_P1 Marginal price 2050 for SE_D1_P2

17 Conclusions & perspectives 17/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective The sub-national MARKAL/TIMES model can be used to asses: Limit of domestic bioenergy production National/regional utilization level of biomass sources Difference in utilization rate between regions Mix of technologies utilized to convert biomass Incorporation rates of 2 nd generation conversion technologies

18 Conclusions & perspectives 18/19 Context Objectives Model and assumptions Results Conclusions and perspective For France we observe: The objective of 20 Mtoe bioenergy production can be reached, but 40 Mtoe might be too ambitious High diversification in utilized conversion technologies and in utilized biomass sources 1 st generation biodiesel and ethanol will still be important sources of biofuels by 2050 For Sweden we observe: High utilization rate of forest residues Large differences in regional utilization of biomass sources Regions can be seen as price setters of biomass sources

19 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Nicklas Forsell Gilles Guerassimoff Dimitris Athanassiadis Edi Assoumou IEW 21-23/06/2010 Stockholm Sweden Centre for Applied Mathematics, Mines ParisTech Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences