Planning for the Future. Jackie Sargent, General Manager Northern Colorado Renewable Energy Society August 20, 2013

Transcription

1 Planning for the Future Jackie Sargent, General Manager Northern Colorado Renewable Energy Society August 20,

2 Platte River Power Authority Estes Park Fort Collins Longmont Loveland 2

3 Local Decision Making Platte River Board of Directors Estes Park Fort Collins Longmont Loveland Mayor Bill Pinkham Mayor Karen Weitkunat Mayor Dennis Coombs Mayor Cecil Gutierrez ``` Mr. Reuben Bergsten Mr. Gerry Horak Mr. Tom Roiniotis Mr. Steve Adams 3

4 Local Electric System Partnership Residential Small Business Generation Transmission Distribution Estes Park Fort Collins Longmont Loveland Large Business Customers 4

5 Vision and Mission Vision: As a respected leader and responsible energy partner, improve the quality of life for the citizens served by our owner communities. Mission: Provide safe, reliable, environmentally responsible, and competitively priced energy and services. 5

6 Platte River Focus: Balance Reliability Environmental Responsibility Competitive Price Innovation & Sustainability 6

7 7 Sustainability

8 Environmental Responsibility State-of-the-art environmental controls Voluntary CO2 emissions reporting since

9 9 CURRENT RESOURCE MIX

10 Current Resources Rawhide Unit 1 Federal Hydro Power Craig Units 1 and 2 Rawhide Combustion Turbines Wind Total 977 MW of Installed Capacity 10

11 Capacity Factor Wind Generation at Time of Peak 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11

12 12 Solar Resource

13 ENERGY EFFICIENCY (DEMAND SIDE) RESOURCES 13

14 14 Energy Efficiency (DSM)

15 COMPETITIVELY PRICED ENERGY 15

16 Percent Increase Consumer Price Index Comparison U.S. CPI N. Colo CPI Platte River Rate

17 Electric Load Growth Characteristics 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% Summer Peak Winter Peak Energy Population 40% 20% 0% 17

18 Wholesale Electric Rate Comparison 2012 Average Wholesale Rates ($/MWh) ~ 70% of average retail rate $ $67.89 $77.55 $50.02 Platte River Power Authority Tri-State PSCO (Xcel) Arkansas River Power Authority 18

19 19 STRATEGIC PLANNING

20 Strategic Plan Development Evaluate current position Investigate options Gather input Community Listening Sessions Board of Directors Retreat Establish strategic initiatives Update resource plan 20

21 21 CURRENT POSITION

22 Resource Mix 2012 Maximum Output Total Energy Produced Craig Coal 16% Wind 2% Hydro 10% Rawhide Peaking Units (Gas) 42% Craig Coal 27% Hydro 16% Wind 1% Rawhide Peaking Units (Gas) 1% Rawhide Coal 55% Rawhide Coal 30% 22

23 Megawatts (MW) Resource Utilization Municipal Loads (2012) Surplus sales revenues offset revenues from Municipalities 400 Surplus Sales Surplus Sales Peaking & Purchases 300 Craig 200 Rawhide Western 100 Wind - Highest Load Lowest Load 23

24 Existing Resource Costs Simple Cycle Gas (Rawhide) Wind (Med Bow & Silver Sage) Hydro (LAP and SLIP) Coal (Rawhide and Craig) Resources are very different Predictable vs. intermittent Operating characteristics Cost ($/MWh) 2012 average operating costs 24

25 Current Portfolio Risks Legislative & regulatory risks Financial risks Constrained resource optimization 25

26 26 INVESTIGATE OPTIONS

27 Possible Resource Options Wind Biomass / Biogas Natural Gas Turbines DSM / Efficiency Small Hydro Solar options Storage / Controls Distributed Generation 27

28 $/MCF Fuel Cost Trends: Natural Gas Increased access to supply EIA U.S. wellhead gas prices annual average price (dollars per 1,000 cubic feet) 28

29 $/Ton Fuel Cost Trends: Coal International demand & export infrastructure expansions EIA Sub-bituminous Coal annual average (dollars per ton) 29

30 Costs for New Resource Options Solar (PV) Biomass Hydropower Wind New resource options are also very different Combined Cycle Gas Existing Resources (average) 30 U.S. average Energy Information Administration Cost ($/MWh)

31 31 GATHER INPUT

32 Listening Sessions Loveland May 8 Fort Collins May 9 Longmont May 15 Estes Park May 16 32

33 Listening Session Process Presentation followed by questions from audience Listening circles to gather input 33

34 Strategic Planning Retreat Received direction from the Board Explore measures to improve collaboration and communication between the four partner Cities Investigate options to diversify generation resource portfolio Increase awareness of technology, innovation trends, and opportunities 34

35 Next Steps Finalize negotiations of a purchase power agreement for 30 MW of additional wind Increase collaboration with the partner Cities to coordinate and expand programs such as demand response capabilities Investigate options for diversifying resource portfolio, minimize carbon impact, and integrate more renewables - while maintaining a regional cost advantage (i.e., update Integrated Resource Plan) 35

36 36 RESOURCE PLANNING

37 Resource Planning Trends Least Cost Planning (1980 s) Maintain reliability Monopoly perspective Consumer advocate focus Large customer influence Lowest cost Fewer resource options Limited analysis capability Initial environmental focus / integration Integrated Resource Planning (1990 s +) Maintain reliability Energy Policy Act of 1992 Implemented via WAPA Load forecasting improvements New analysis tools Supply & Demand focus Integration of resources Energy efficiency programs Renewable energy focus Public input process added Externalities considerations Deregulation considerations Evolving Planning Environment Maintain reliability Energy Policy Act of 2005 Updated IRP rules FERC / NERC initiatives RTOs, ISOs, CIP, EIM, etc. Global warming concerns Environmental compliance coal Legislative / regulatory initiatives DSM, DG, DR & renewable options Homeland Security impacts Hydraulic fracturing innovations Aging infrastructure concerns AMI, Smart Grid, innovations Electric vehicles Drought / water management Stakeholder engagement Triple bottom line perspectives Increasing uncertainty 37

38 Resource Planning Phases Platte River 1970 s 1980 s 1980 s 1990 s Early 2000 s Next Phase Building: Craig Rawhide Transmission Operations: Craig Rawhide Transmission Municipal sales PSCo CAE sale Summer Peak: Five new gas CTs Transmission End of PSCo sale Hydro (drought) Craig & Rawhide operations Flexibility: Renewables Demand response Distributed generation New technologies Diverse member needs Balancing multiple uncertainties & managing risks 38

39 39 QUESTIONS?