Presentation to Royal Aeronautical Society - Montréal Branch Chris Lyle 30 January 2008

Transcription

1 Air Transport and Climate Change: Presentation to Royal Aeronautical Society - Montréal Branch Chris Lyle 30 January 2008

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6 Danger CO2W

7 IATA s challenges (1) ¾Improved ATM ¾10% of fuel replaced by carbon alternatives in 10 years ¾25% improvement in aircraft fleet fuel efficiency by 2020 ¾Zero emissions aircraft in next 50 years

8 IATA s challenges (2) ¾Global approach, through ICAO, for voluntary emissions trading ¾Implementation of global best practice Environmental Management Systems ¾Major environmental communications campaign, initially in Europe

9 Q: Which statement is correct? Over the last 4 decades aircraft fuel efficiency and consequently environmental performance has improved 70 % OR Since 1990, the Kyoto Protocol base year, aviation s CO2 emissions have risen by 80 % A: Both, significant improvements in fuel intensity have been well below traffic growth

10 Air transport and climate change (IPCC, 1999 and 2007) Small now in terms of global CO2 emissions (c. 2%) but: ¾Somewhat larger in terms of all GHG emissions (> CO2) plus altitude effects (plus uncertain cirrus cloudiness effect) ¾Technical options at hand insufficient to counter anticipated traffic growth ¾Thus continuing growth in both absolute and proportional contribution ¾Cumulative: CO2 effective residence time in atmosphere years plus

11 Air transport and climate change: Kyoto Protocol ¾Air transport excluded from Kyoto targets, instead Article 2.2 of Kyoto calls on States to address air transport emissions working through ICAO

12 Symbiosis between tourism and air transport ¾Some 40% of the 846 million international tourist arrivals in 2006 were by air (much higher proportions for long-haul destinations) ¾Vast majority of the 931 million international passengers in 2006 were tourists

13 International tourist arrivals, Europe Americas Asia/Pacific Africa Forecast Actual 600 Middle East Millions 500

14 Tourism s global economic contribution ¾Directly nearly 4% of GDP, 3% of employment ¾Directly & indirectly over 10% of GDP, 8% of employment ¾International ¾846 million arrivals (2006) ¾$733 billion receipts (2006) ¾6% of exports ¾30% of commercial service trade

15 Tourism s contribution to poorest economies ¾Tourism receipts of LDCs grew from $1 to $5 billion between 1990 and 2005 ¾Tourism is second-biggest source of foreign exchange for 46 of 49 LDCs ¾Tourism is often the principal service sector activity ¾Tourism is an effective catalyst for gender equality, employment of young people, rural regeneration, cultural preservation and nature conservation

16 Air transport and tourism

17 Tourism and climate change ¾Climate-related risks require adaptation ¾Climate change causes require mitigation Climate change is NOT an abstract concept for tourism

18 Tourism and climate change adaptation Partially operating ski area near Salzburg, Austria: Mid-January 2007 (Photo credit: Beatrice Stadel)

19 Tourism and climate change mitigation ¾GHG emissions from tourism are estimated to contribute about 5% in terms of global CO2 emissions (a little less in terms of the total GHG impact) ¾Air transport accounts for an estimated 40% of the tourism contribution of CO2 (and over well over half of the total GHG impact) ¾Air transport accounts for an estimated 60% of the international tourism contribution of CO2, and is overwhelmingly dominant at medium- and long-haul

20 Tourism and climate change mitigation While there are many options to reduce emissions [in the tourism sector], by far the greatest potential is related to air travel; reducing flight numbers and flight distances will achieve more to make tourism more sustainable than most other measures taken together. Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges, eclat, November 2007

21 Instruments for dealing with air transport and climate change A. Airframe/engine technology, alternative fuels, ATM and operational practices B. Alternative modes of transport and communication C. Operating restrictions and rationing D. Levies (charges, taxes and duties) E. Emissions trading F. Carbon offset

22 A. Airframe/engine technology

23 A. Airframe/engine technology

24 A. Alternative fuels (1) ¾Oil from coal (near-term, initially blends, carbon capture and storage issues, water usage conflict) ¾Corn, soy, cassava, canola/rapeseed, sunflower (midterm, ethanol/biodiesel blends, freezing issues, food/animal feed production conflict, fertilizer GHGs) ¾Sugar beet/cane, palm leaves, coconut oil, babassu (midterm, higher yield ethanol/biodiesel blends, freezing issues, land and water usage conflict, deforestation) Full life-cycle assessments gaining consideration

25 A. Alternative fuels (2) ¾Oil from liquid natural gas (mid-term) ¾Liquid hydrogen (mid-term for APUs, long-term for turbines due technology limits, safety concerns) ¾Oil from biomass (long-term)

26 A. Alternative fuels (3) ¾Perennial grasses, straw or wood, jatropha (long-term and low-yield but promising, can grow in marginal soil although large scale production would have land and water conflicts) ¾Marine macroalgae (very promising, eg 15 x more fuel per hectare than rapeseed, but at a very early stage) Biofuels have a limited ability to replace fossil fuels and should not be regarded as a silver bullet to deal with transport emissions Royal Society, January 2008

27 A. Airframe/engine technology, ATM and operational practices - summary ¾New aircraft types (eg A350XWB,A380, B787) will help but older types have long lifespan and quantum leap forward (eg BWB) yet to come ¾Alternative fuel sources have yet to be proven or justified ¾Improved ATM and CDA could be significant ¾All combined could be substantial but will still fall well short of countering traffic growth

28 B. Alternative modes of transport and communication ¾For short-haul, trains (non-fossil fuel powered), buses, small (multi-passenger) car, advanced turboprop aircraft ¾For long-haul, little alternative to (jet) air transport ¾For business, video conferencing, telepresence and podcasting (plus reduction in M.I.C.E. activity?)

29 C. Operating restrictions and rationing ¾Airport capacity capping ¾Phase-out of more polluting aircraft ¾Slot allocation on basis of environmental performance of aircraft or length of haul ¾Limitations on flight stage length for very long haul O and D ¾Limitations on number of flights by airlines/passengers ¾Fossil fuel cap ¾Carbon card

30 D. Levies (charges, taxes and duties) ¾Charges require agreement on cost base and on territorial application (ICAO has ruled out globally) ¾Taxes face legal obstacles at international level (ICAO has ruled out globally) ¾UK in February 2007 doubled Air Passenger Duty, Netherlands and Germany to introduce similar duties

31 E. Emissions trading ¾Principally Cap and Trade amongst different entities ¾Firms finding it easier to cut emissions may sell surplus quota to others ¾SO2 trading very effective in US ¾First multinational CO2 trading system in place amongst EU States since 2005, presently covers large installations, proposed reform and extended application under way

32 E. Emissions trading and aviation ¾ Closed intra-airline trading impractical (ICAO has ruled out) ¾ Open trading with other sectors allows air transport to continue to increase emissions, ICAO supports in principle and has developed guidance ¾EU intends to include air transport in CO2 open trading from 2011/12, ICAO Assembly (Sep 2007) rejected application to non-eu airlines on intercontinental routes (without mutual agreement ), but EU is pressing ahead

33 F. Carbon offset ¾Aircraft emissions countered by investment in GHG reducing activities (energy efficiency and renewable energy projects such as heat-saving stoves or lamps, electricity from methane, solar home heating) ¾Generally voluntary by ticket purchaser but some government and commercial institutions apply as travel policy and some airlines (eg WestJet, Silverjet, Harbour Air) will cover ¾Questions regarding validity (eg need for certification, allows air transport to continue to increase emissions)

34 F. Carbon offset

35 F. Carbon offset

36 F. Carbon offset, YUL-YVR -YUL Provider ACA (zerofootprint) By a/c? By class? By inter. point? By dir n? Emissions (tonnes) Cost (C$) x x x x 0.8 CO WJA (offsetters.ca) x x Y x 1.4 CO 2 -e 28 Atmosfair Y Y Y x CO 2 -e (y class, scheduled) 51-52

37 Organizations commencing voluntary carbon offset sales, 1991 to 2006 Copyright 2007, Stefan Gössling et al, Journal of Sustainable Tourism Vol. 15, No. 3

38 F. Carbon offset Some criteria to consider: ¾Accurate assessment ¾Certified/audited provider ¾Certified/audited projects ¾Avoidance of additionality /double counting ¾Neutrality or reduction (cf Kyoto) ¾Use of Kyoto CDM ¾ Opt out or mandatory ¾Transparency Well-considered, carbon offset can be a valid (fallback) option

39 Carbon: Tax ¾Precise, stable cost, uncertain quantity ¾Readily adjustable vs Cap and Trade (1) ¾Precise quantity, uncertain, volatile cost ¾Misjudged allocations can lead to radical price fluctuations (absent a safety valve) ¾No adjustment for business cycle

40 Carbon: Tax ¾Transparent, simple, equitable ¾Global commonality or application unlikely (ASA exemptions) vs Cap and Trade (2) ¾Opaque, complex, potential inequities from free initial allocation or for new entrants, leakage, transaction costs, monitoring costs and difficulties ¾CDM transfers (post 2012?) enhance global acceptability (but geographic scope and market distortion/manipulation issues)

41 Carbon: Tax ¾Taxes politically unpopular ¾Raises revenue (for what?) vs Cap and Trade (3) ¾Capping readily comprehensible ¾Aviation expansion could eventually drive prices (inequities)

42 A tourism perspective on air transport and climate change ¾Mitigation measures to reflect coherence with poverty alleviation strategies ¾Apply principle of Contraction and Convergence ¾Preferential treatment for air services supporting the development of tourism in developing countries ¾Even-handed approach to primary users (tourism and freight) and amongst modes of transport Fewer trips and longer stays? Stay closer to home?

43 A paradox ¾Tourism is the dominant economic sector, predominantly dependent on (long-haul) international air transport ¾Tourism has enhanced establishment of nature parks and marine protection areas ¾Partly in consequence, the country is a NET ABSORBER of GHGs Air transport must be placed in context Air transport is integral to tourism (and trade) and must not be treated in isolation

44 Air transport and climate change: a scenario ¾Intensify efforts in airframe/engine technology, alternative fuels, ATM and operational practices ¾Apply verified carbon offset now ¾Keep an open mind to participation in (duly refined) open Cap and Trade soon In absence of above, expect disjointed proliferation of unilaterally applied levies, operating restrictions and rationing

45 Air transport and climate change: ICAO and Kyoto ¾Kyoto targets apply only to industrialized countries (39 of 40 have ratified) ¾ICAO has 190 Member States and provisions concerning equal treatment (eg Articles 11 and 15 of Chicago Convention) ICAO (CAEP) has done tremendous work, especially on the technical front, but in practice had an impossible remit as far as economic instruments are concerned

46 Air transport and climate change: ICAO and Kyoto ¾CDM benefits for aviation not available under Kyoto ¾Post-Kyoto air transport provisions need to be different if ICAO is going to have a chance of making any progress ¾Post Kyoto provisions will reflect ICAO Assembly results, maritime as well as air transport considerations, and broader economic issues Initiative may transfer from ICAO to UNFCCC and/or UNEP

47 Post-Kyoto process ¾UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP/13) agreed the Bali Action Plan in December 2007, a framework for developing an agreed outcome by COP/15 in Copenhagen in December 2009 ¾No global target(s) ¾All 192 UNFCCC States committed to Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions ¾Qualifications amongst developed countries and between developed and developing countries (principle of common but differentiated responsibilities )

48 ICAO and post-kyoto ¾ICAO has established a high-level policy Group on International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) ¾GIACC Programme of Action will be reviewed by a highlevel meeting around the time of COP/15 ¾GIACC includes only aviation governmental representatives and is aviation-boxed In rugby terms, the sidestep to evade being tackled on this issue will only work for so long one day the big hit will come, and it will hurt Airline Business, Editorial, November 2007

49 ICAO and post-kyoto ICAO needs to: ¾Seek new Article 2.2 provisions (re CDM, JI, ET) ¾Develop mechanisms to meet the needs of developing countries (especially LDCs and SIDS) consistent with the Chicago Convention ¾Think outside the box (eg on carbon fuel taxes, life-cycle assessment) ¾Engage outside the box (eg beyond government, and beyond civil aviation to travel and tourism and trade ) ¾Participate collegially in the UN system to develop common positions

50 The C words for Travelers and Regulators

51 Further information Tourism, Air Transport and Climate Change: A Discussion Paper