Kashif Majeed Salik SDPI's Seventeenth Sustainable Development Conference December 2014, Islamabad

Transcription

1 Socio-economic Vulnerability of the Mangroves Ecosystem to Climate Change in South Asia: A case study of the Indus and Ganges deltas Kashif Majeed Salik SDPI's Seventeenth Sustainable Development Conference December 2014, Islamabad

2 Outline Purpose of the study Background Climate change science and community perceptions Methodology Results and Adaptation options

3 Purpose of the study We try understand socio-economic vulnerability to climate change via: relating community s perceptions with observed and projected climate change scenarios 1. What are the likely drivers of community s sensitivity to climate change? 2. What are their impacts on community s wellbeing? 3. How much is the coping potential? 4. What should be the key adaptation options for increasing community s resilience?

4 Background Mangrove forests are unique and highly productive ecosystems Provide multitude of environmental services and economic benefits Becoming increasingly important in disaster risk reduction One hectare of a well-protected and healthy mangrove ecosystem can produce from 15 kg of crabs to 400 kg of fish, mollusks, and shrimp that mature in off-shore areas (Khan, 2011). Export of about 85,000 metric tones of fish (Rs7.9 billionmore then 1percent of GDP)

5 Climate change science & community perceptions

6 Air Temperature The observed temperature suggests a consistent increase of mean annual air temperature by 1.47 o C from 1951 to 2010 Annual temperature will rise to 1.15, 2.4 and 4.19 C by F1 ( ), F2 ( ) and F3 ( ) Mangrove forests are dependent on optimal temperatures- impact their biophysical processes such as photosynthesis, leaf formation, root development, flowering and fruiting etc. (Nicholls et al., 2008; Belkin, 2009; Bardach, 1989) as well as increase salinity levels; decreased agriculture production Perception of changes in past 30 years? 51% says temperatures are increasing 70% says reduction in Mangrove forest is due to sea intrusion & salinity 57% says agriculture yields are decreasing due to salinity

7 Precipitation Annual total precipitation trend change has been estimated as mm over the period Mean projected to increase twice the times of the base in F1( ), 1.5 times of the base in F2( ) and 1.8 F3 ( ) The erratic patterns of rain and flooding are likely to reduce ecosystem productivity due to soil erosion, phytoplankton displacement, less sedimentation deposit, soil salinity and reduction in agricultural yields (Keller et al. 2009) Perception of changes in past 30 years? Rainfall: 86.7 % says changed and increased ; 54% increase in erratic RF 81% says Soil Fertility dec. 65 %says Soil erosion Incr.

8 Sea Surface Temperature An average warming of 0.3±0.1 0 C per decade was observed in the coastal areas of Pakistan While projected increase in the global mean SST under IPCC SERS A2 scenario is around 2.6 o C by the end of 21 st century (Singh and Sarker, 2002; Khanet al., 2004, 2008; Belkin, 2009; IPCC, 2007). Fish diversity, distribution, abundance, phenology and its spawning season all are closely related to SST variability (William et al., 2013) Perception of changes in past 30 years? % says decreasing trend in fish catch of all type 73 % says fish catch sites are changing and dispersed

9 Indus Delta-Keti Bundar Pakistan Ganges Delta-Dacope/Khulna Bangladesh

10 Vulnerability Assessment Exposure Sensitivity Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Vulnerability is defined on the basis of a system s exposure and sensitivity to climate change, moderated by its adaptive capacity

11 Composite vulnerability Analysis Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Air temperature Precipitation Sea Surface Temperature Mangrove Forests Water and sanitation Fresh Water Flows Cost of Climatic Disasters Consumption Patterns Income Diversification Dependency Ratio Schooling or Education Level Infrastructure Assets Family Networks Migrations CVI Sub- Indices Indicators

12 Exposure Variables Temperature sdt- Standard Deviation of Monthly Temperatures between rt1- The range between max. & mini av. monthly temperatures Nhot- The frequency of extreme hot months (above 30 o C) Ncold- The frequency of extreme cold (below -10 o C) months Precipitation Ndry- The frequency of extreme dry month in spring(less than 5 ml total precipitation/month) and summer (0 ml total precipitation/month sdp- Standard Deviation of monthly total precipitation Sea Surface Temperature sdt- Standard Deviation of Yearly sea surface temperatures

13 Sensitivity Variables Mangrove Forests Degradation of mangroves in Keti Bandar Accessibility to Mangroves Mangroves used per month as fuel Health Share of households relying on unprotected water sources Population deprived of sanitation facility Fresh Water Flows Change in Fresh Water flows Effect of unavailability of Fresh water on Agriculture Effect of unavailability of Fresh Water on Fish Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters Cost of Climatic Disasters Intensity of Natural Climatic Disasters Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies

14 Adaptive capacity variables Consumption Patterns Household Consumption per Capita Income Diversification Herfindahl index of income diversification (higher value, more diversification) Dependency Ratio Ratio of total number of people and number of people earning in a family Schooling or Education Level People educated above secondary level Percentage Share of Literate People Infrastructure Access to Basic Services Nature of Dwellings Assets Number of the Assets owned by the community members Family Networks Level of cooperation within the family network within the village Level of cooperation within the family network outside the village Migrations Extent of Migration due to natural Disasters Extent of Migration because of economic reasons

15 CVI Calculation

16 Categorization of vulnerability Levels (Adopted and transformed from Comer et al and Hammill et al. 2013) Index value Scale Exposure/ Vulnerability Sensitivity/ Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity/ Vulnerability CVI 0.0 CVI 0.3 Low/ Low Low/Low Low/ Very high Low 0.31 CVI 0.5 Medium/ Medium Medium/ Medium Medium/ High Medium 0.51 CVI 0.7 High/ High High/ High High/ Medium High 0.71 CVI 1.0 Very High/ Very High Very High/ Very High Very High/ Low Very High

17 Results & Adaptation options

18 Exposure Indicators Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0 CVI 0.3 Medium 0.31 CVI 0.5 High 0.51 CVI 0.7 1)Frequency of extreme hot and cold months; 2)Variability of total precipitation 1)Variability of Temperatures; 2) Average Diurnal Temperature Range; 3) No of extreme dry days; 4) Variability of Sea Surface Temp 1) Index representing exposure of drought 1)Average precipitation; 2)Range between maximum and minimum temperature; 3) Index representing frequency of cyclone; 4)Frequency salinity beyond which drinking water is not potable Very High 0.71 CVI 1.0 1) Average temperature;

19 Sensitivity variables Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0 CVI 0.3 Medium 0.31 CVI 0.5 High 0.51 CVI 0.7 Very High 0.71 CVI 1.0 1)Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters; 2)Mangroves used per month as fuel; 1)Accessibility to Mangroves 1)Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation; 1)Degradation of mangroves; 2)Unprotected water sources; 3)Population deprived of sanitation Facility: 4)Effect of Fresh Water flow Agri. & Fish; 5)Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters; 6)Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies 1)Share of population below 5 year of age; 2)Share of population above 65 years of age; 3)Estimated per capita economic cost of these disasters: 1)Percentage of population without access to improved toilet facility; 1)Frequency of natural climate disasters; 2)Share of population relying on unprotected water sources 1)Percentage of population without access to improved water source; 2)Percentage of population victims of salinity intrusion; 3)Intensity of natural disasters;4) Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies

20 Adaptive capacity variables Vulnerability Indus Ganges Low 0.0 CVI 0.3 Medium 0.31 CVI 0.5 High 0.51 CVI 0.7 Very High 0.71 CVI 1.0 1)Household Consumption per Capita; 2)Income diversification; 3)Dependency ratio; 4)Education above secondary; 5)% of Literate people; 6)Access to basic services; 1)Percentage of population with access to electricity; 2) Dependency ratio; 3)Nature of dwellings 1) Assets ownership; 1)Employment rate; 2)Percentage of births attended by skilled birth attendants; 1)Nature of dwellings; 2)cooperation within family within and outside village; 3)Migration 1)Literacy rate; 2)Household consumption 1)Percentage of children aged 2-23 months immunised against major disease; 2)Level of cooperation within locality

21 CVI in Indus and Ganges Delta CVI Indus Ganges Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Overall CVI (High) (Medium)

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23 Adaptation options 1) Provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities Untreated water from canals are contaminated with industrial and agricultural effluents Major cause of poor health status among the Deltaic communities

24 Adaptation options 2) Ensuring environmental flows Decreased fresh water flows greatly contributed in the degradation of the Indus delta ecology Ecosystem services has shrunk causing widespread poverty & migration in deltaic areas

25 Adaptation options 3) Safeguard from the climatic disasters and settlements out of the risky areas Integrate scientific information into planning for DRR and improve Institutional capacity Develop proper and safe settlements to protect life and property as well as provision of civic facilities

26 Adaptation options 4) Improving education access Education is a key to enhance the resilience of communities both in pre & post-disaster situations improving literacy rate in the coastal areas can greatly improve the livelihood options

27 Adaptation options 5) Capacity development for climate preparedness and innovations Incapacities of institutions have led to poor management of coastal resources new building and settlement codes, insurance coverage & hazard preparedness

28 Thank you for the attention

29 Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index overall Index for Agricultur e Index for Fisheries Exposure (E) Air Temperature E1 Monthly Variability of Temperatures during E2 Monthly Average Diurnal Temperature Range E5 Frequency of extreme hot months (above 30 o C) E6 Frequency of extreme cold months (below -10 o C) months Precipitation (P) E7 No of extreme dry days: Spring (P<5mm) Summer (P = 0mm) E3 Monthly Variability of total precipitation Sea Surface Temp. E4 Monthly variability of Sea Surface Temp. during ( )

30 Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index overall Index for Agricultur e Index for Fisheries Sensitivity (S) Mangrove Forests Water and sanitation S1 Sensitivity of mangroves in Keti Bandar S2 Accessibility to Mangroves S3 Mangroves used per month as fuel S4 Share of households relying on unprotected water sources S5 Population deprived of sanitation Facility Fresh Water Flows S6 Change in Fresh Water flows S7 Effect of unavailability of Fresh water on Agriculture S8 Effect of unavailability of Fresh Water on Fish S9 Frequency of sea intrusion or inundation Climatic Disasters S10 Frequency of Natural Climatic Disasters S11 Intensity of Natural Climatic Disasters S12 Estimated per capita economic costs of these disasters S13 Percentage of population financially aided by different agencies

31 A12 Extent of Migration because of material reasons Sub-Indices and their Indicators Variable Variable Description Index overall Index for Agricultu re Index for Fisherie s Lack of Adaptive Capacity (1-A) Consumption Patterns Income Diversification Dependency Ratio A1 Household Consumption per Capita A2 Herfindahl index of income diversification (higher value, more diversification) A3 Ratio of total number of people and number of people earning in a family Education Level A4 People educated above secondary level A5 Percentage Share of Literate People Infrastructure A6 Access to Basic Services Assets A7 Nature of Dwellings A8 Number of the Assets owned by the community members Family Networks A9 Level of cooperation within the family network within the village A10 Level of cooperation within the family network outside the village Migrations A11 Extent of Migration due to natural Disasters