A technology Roadmap for PV manufacturing

Transcription

1 A technology Roadmap for PV manufacturing Dr. Winfried Hoffmann, Applied Materials, Vice President and CTO Energy and Environmental Solutions President European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) Member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH 5th SMET Advanced PV Technology Conference Munich May 27, 2009

2 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation may contain forward-looking statements, including those relating to Applied s performance, products and opportunities, and the industry outlook. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, including but not limited to: the level of demand for nanomanufacturing technology products, which is subject to many factors, including global economic and market conditions, demand for electronic products and semiconductors, and governmental renewable energy policies and incentives; customers capacity requirements and ability to acquire sufficient capital, obtain regulatory approvals and/or build infrastructure; Applied s ability to (i) develop, deliver and support a broad range of products, expand its markets and develop new markets, (ii) align its cost structure with business conditions, (iii) manage its resources and production capability, (iv) implement initiatives that enhance global operations and efficiencies, (v) obtain and protect IP rights in key technologies; and (vi) attract and retain key employees; and other risks described in Applied s SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on management s estimates, projections and assumptions as of May 27, 2009 and Applied undertakes no obligation to update any such statements. 2

3 Applied Materials Overview OUR MISSION To LEAD the Nanomanufacturing Technology revolution with innovations that transform markets, create opportunities, and offer a cleaner, brighter future to people around the world. SILICON SYSTEMS Advancing Technology Innovating Productivity DISPLAY Delivering New Technology and Scale ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS Changing the Energy Equation APPLIED GLOBAL SERVICES Driving Fab Productivity New Orders (FY 2008) Revenue (FY 2008) RD&E (rolling 5 years) $9,155M $8,129M $5,330M Worldwide Employees (21 countries) ~14,824 December

4 Silicon Systems Thermal Inspection CVD Etch PVD CMP We make the systems used to produce virtually every new microchip in the world 4

5 Moore s Law Driving Down Price Experience Curve in the Semiconductor Industry VLSI/DRAM ~28% reduction for doubling of total volume DRAM Cents/bit Cumulative Bits 5

6 Semiconductor Technology Roadmap INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR SEMICONDUCTORS,

7 Applied's Display Group PECVD Color Filter PVD TFT PECVD Liquid Crystal Color filter Color Filter PVD Array PVD Array Tester Source: Display Search, Applied Materials 7

8 From Display to Solar Solid Foundation for Next Stage Designed, Engineered and Built by Display Group Al a-si n+ a-si a-si TCO SiNx Glass Glass SiNx Thin Thin Film Film Solar Transistor Structure (TFT) (Single Structure Junction) Gen 8.5 AKT-55K PECVD System Applied SunFab Gen 8.5 PECVD System 8

9 TF: New Standard in Module Size 5.7m 2 SunFab 9

10 Energy and Environmental Solutions Solar Lighting Web Glass New Technologies ATON PWS + Baccini csi work cells Nanotech TF battery LED OLED R2R architectural applications Electrochromic windows TF SunFab (asi / µc complete lines) Energy Efficient Products PV Solar Electricity 10

11 Technology Roadmap for PV Industry Portfolio of of different PV technologies to to serve optimally the customer needs Size matters in in all aspects Production volume per per technology Onsite integration of of upstream value added steps strongly dependent on on volume size size Substrate size size for for TF TF to to decrease unit unit cost Factory automation and control 11 Internal Use

12 Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE 12 Internal Use

13 Technology Evolution Module Price / Wp [rel. - (5 to 9) % price decrease per year Module price (rel. Units) TF a-si-pin/pin II-VI c-si a-si/µc-siii-vi dye a-si-pin r mc r Cz Si Cz mc conc. III -V today + 5 to10 years * + 10 to20 years * Beyond 20 years ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates Module Efficiency [%] 30 13

14 c-si Technology Wafer [µm] *) Kerf loss [µm] / / 0 **) / 0 Cell efficiency [%] [g/w] ,5-3 Module Long term stable, low cost/m² technology In the long run integrated manufacturing of thin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminate making is probably the most effective route. *) best in class values, global average about 150 µm for wafer and 120 µm for kerf loss **) values for Si wafer / EFG-String Ribbon 14 Internal Use

15 Thin Film Technologies have a) low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%) - deposition area: 0,6 1, m² - utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI) - creation of semitransparency by thin-layers - flexible solar cells ( web coaters) b) low cost (price) per Wp - ASI/µc-Si and II VI compound (CIS, CTS) - efficiency from 8 12 % today up to % in 2010 and % in

16 Substrate Size Expansion in LCD Gen meters Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen 8 = 5.7 square meters 2.2 meters Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 2.5 Gen 2 Gen 2.5 Gen 3 Gen 3.5 Gen 4 Gen 5 Gen 6 Gen x 470mm 4 up up up 15 ~ 17 6 up 19 ~ 24 6 up x 37 wide 6 up x 52 wide 2.6 meters 16

17 Thin Film Technology Large area substrate (or superstrate) PVD contact formation Scribing Display Gen 5, 5, 7, 7, 8.5, Back contact or or TCO Laser or or mechanical Absorber Layer (incl. electrical field form.) II-VI comp., a-si, μc-si Scribing PVD contact formation Electrical contact formation and lamination Laser or or mechanical Back contact or or TCO Including module finish 17

18 Development of Cost Contributors % of Cost 100% Capital Costs Other Costs 50% Material Costs 0% 50MW 500MW 1GW Volume of Production 18

19 Share of PV Technologies Yearly installed PV Power [GW] Relative technology Shares Absolute Installed PV Power 100% % 250 New technologies TF Yearly installed PV Power [%] 60% 40% 20% New technologies TF csi Yearly installed PV Power [GW] csi 0% Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 19 Internal Use

20 Solar Experience Curve: Module Cost/Watt $100 Historical Prices Module Price (2006 $/Wp) $10 $ c-si Thin Film 2007 <20 GW Polysilicon shortage ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 Cumulative Production (MWp) >100 GW 20 Source: Adapted from National Renewable Energy Laboratory

21 Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Market Electricity Market in GWp and bn Turnover PV Power installed, GWp/a % 39% 30% 28% 25% % Pardigm Shift Scenario Standard Scenario 90 20% 9% 6% 3% 10% 5% % module level range depending on experience factor (15% - 18%) fab-invest level (decrease: ~10% every 5 years) upper bound: c-si, full production chain lower bound: thin film Market, billion /a 40% year ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates 21

22 World Electricity Production Forecast Total electricity production % of Total TWh³ / year % of Total PV electricity production² 1 assuming 1.4% increase per year (source: IEA WEO 2004, World Alternative Policy Scenario ) and starting at TWh world electricity production in 2004 (source: BMWi Zahlen und Fakten - Energiedaten, 2006) 2 assuming average of 1200 kwh yearly electricity production per installed kwp module power (own estimate) 3 TWh = Terrawatt-hour = 1 billion Kilowatt-hours year ref: IEA 2004 World Alternative Policy Scenario & BMWi Dates and facts energy

23 23