Regional training on indicators «ODYSSEE-MURE» Energy efficiency indicators at sub-sector or end-use level

Transcription

1 Regional training on indicators «ODYSSEE-MURE» Energy efficiency indicators at sub-sector or end-use level Bruno Lapillonne with Karine Pollier and Laura Sudries, Enerdata May 218 Presented by Martin Patel, University of Geneva National Odyssee workshop, 29 May 218, Bern, Switzerland

2 Content 1. What are energy efficiency indicators? 2. Measuring energy efficiency progress and energy savings 3. Energy efficiency index for sectors and countries 4. Decomposition 5. Country benchmarking by sector 6. Additional slides Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE 2

3 What are Energy Efficiency Indicators (EEI)? Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

4 What are Energy Efficiency Indicators (EEI)? Energy efficiency indicators are KPIs used to assess the level and/or progress in energy efficiency and to measure energy savings. They are determined by means of a specific energy consumption (SEC), i.e. by relating the energy consumption to a) a physical activity indicator (e.g. kwh/m2, toe/t, l/1 km) or b) to a consumption unit (dwelling, car, refrigerator; per employee). They can also be indicators of market penetration of efficient technologies and practices (e.g. market share of solar water heaters, modal share for transport of goods or passengers). Indicators in monetary values, called energy intensities, that relate the consumption to Value Added) (e.g. kwh/$, toe/$) are not considered here as energy efficiency indicators. 4 Adapted from Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

5 Measuring energy efficiency progress and energy savings Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

6 Measuring energy efficiency progress Energy efficiency progress can be measured in two ways with energy efficiency indicators: Based on specific or unit consumption (e.g. toe, GJ or kwh/t in industry) à Total savings, whatever the driving factor: policy measure, energy prices, autonomous trend Based on data about market diffusion of efficient equipment (e.g. sales of efficient electric motors) and/or replaced appliances à Applied to assess the impact of a specific energy efficiency programme 6 Source: Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

7 Measuring energy efficiency progress for space heating and cooling: need of climate correction Correct for cold/mild winters by means of HDD. Energy efficiency indicators for heating and cooling to be measured at normal climate, i.e. with climatic correction; this is always the case in ODYSSEE Specific consumption per dwelling : actual value VS value at normal climate 1.8 From 1.7 toe/dw in 2 to 1.4 toe/dw in 213, i.e. energy efficiency progress was 18%* or 2.3%/year** at normal climate actual values 1.2 *(1.4/1.7) -1) = 18% **((1.4/1.7)^(1/13))-1 = 1.5%/year toe/dwelling 7 Source: Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

8 Measuring energy efficiency progress at the level of end-use/sub-sectors : calculation issue with EEI EEI may increase or decrease less than expected because of other factors, e.g. increased efficiency of refrigerators or TVs may be partly compensated/overcompensated by increasing size. increase of specific consumption during periods of recession due to an inefficient operation of equipment in industry (kilns, boilers, motors) and freight transport (trucks) because of low rate of capacity utilization Necessity to get additional data, whenever possible, to clean the indicator trends from these other effects For instance by disaggregating in more detailed sub sectors By using kwh/litre for refrigerators to remove the size effect. 8 Source: Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

9 Energy efficiency index for sectors and countries Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

10 How to measure energy efficiency progress at sector level from all these detailed indicators? Example for households: EE improvement refrigerators and 2.3%/yr for heating. 1.5%/yr for ,5%/yr 17 kwh/m2 of %/yr kwh/household heating refrigerators What is the overall energy efficiency progress for households? Need to combine the individual indicators for energy efficiency progress to one single indicator. This is the objective of the energy efficiency index ODEX. Source: Lapillonne et al. ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE 1

11 ODEX (1/2) Energy efficiency index ODEX at sector level (i.e. industry, transport, households) and at country level. ODEX is unitless indicator allowing to combine different physical units of various sectors and subsectors (e.g. toe/tonne, toe per pkm or tkm in transport, toe/m2 or kwh/appliance for households) is created o by weighting of indices of specific consumption by subsector (or end-use) o with the share of each sub-sector s energy consumption (energy weighting). 11 Source: Lapillonne et al. ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE

12 ODEX (2/2) ODEX Households based on Space heating in toe per m2 Water heating and Cooking in toe/dwelling Large appliances in kwh/year/appliance ODEX Services based on Final energy consumption per employee ODEX Transport based on litres/1 km for cars and litres/tonne-km for trucks & light vehicles koe/passenger for air koe/passenger-km for rail koe per tonne-km for goods by rail and water toe per vehicle for motorcycles and busses ODEX Industry based on 3 energy intensive branches: steel, cement and pulp & paper 4 main branches: chemicals, food, textile & leather and equipment goods 3 residual branches: other metals, other non-metallic minerals, other pulp & paper & printing 12 Source: Lapillonne et al. ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE

13 Decomposition of change in energy consumption Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

14 Method Decomposition of energy change of energy consumption over time into of different factors, e.g. - activity - structural change - energy efficiency. Energy efficiency in ODYSSEE decomposition exclusively includes energy savings. Other in in ODYSSEE decomposition includes deterioration of EE due to low capacity utilizsation (ind., freight) and inefficient behaviour (lower car occupancy, changed space heating habits). Simple, additive and non-logarithmic approach, in contrast to the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) used by many other studies (e.g. IEA, JRC ISPRA, Fraunhofer ISI). Adapted from Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE 14

15 Energy efficiency improvement what to expect? IEA Energy Efficiency Market report 216: Ind.& services Residential -1.5% p.a. physical Passenger transport -.7% p.a. physical With improved occupancy: -1.3% p.a. Source: IEA (-1.2% p.a. value added based) Art.7 of EU Energy Efficiency Directive (212): Reduction of final energy use by 1.5% p.a. (214-22) by energy efficiency obligation scheme Target agreement in CH ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE 15

16 Country benchmarking by sector Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

17 Benchmarking at sector level with adjusted indicators in ODYSSEE The adjustments made in ODYSSEE take into the following quantifiable differences between countries: 1. Climate 2. Fuel mix 3. Industry structure 4. Economic structure All indicators in monetary terms are measured with purchasing power parities to adjust for differences in general price level. A data tool enables to benchmark the countries by doing these adjustments ( benchmarking tool ) and by showing the impact of each of them individually. 17 Source: Lapillonne et al. Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

18 Additional slides Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

19 Scoring energy efficiency perfomance Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

20 Scoreboard facility on energy efficiency indicators Objective : Assess and score the level and progress of countries in energy efficiency, globally and by end-use sector (industry, transport, households, services, total final). Energy efficiency is assessed by sector through a selection of indicators: o Indicators of level: selected indicators e.g. for transport: specific consumption of cars, of goods vehicle, share of public transport o Indicators of progress: trends in the previous indicators (e.g. trend in specific consumption of cars and trucks...). Both level and trends are combined for scoring and the same weight is given for level and trend (5/5 for each indicator). Scoring is done in two ways o Position any country vis a vis 3 references: the best country, the EU average or any country; o Score all countries by sector and for all sectors, and showing as an option the position, indicator by indicator. 2 Source: Lapillonne et al. Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

21 Scoreboard methodology: calculation of the score for each indicator Scoring methodology based on OECD Composite Indicator (JRC method) which gives normalized scores across the countries within a range of -1. Methodology based on minimum and maximum values observed in the sample of countries ; Normalized score Indicator min indicator +.5*(1 - direction) calculation = (max indicator min indicator) * direction Direction: = -1 (decline in the indicator favored) /+1 (increase favored) Final normalized score is always in the range (,1). Minimum and maximum: average of the lowest and highest 3 country values. 21 Source: Lapillonne et al. Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

22 Scoring methodology: example of specific consumption of cars Specific consumption of cars l/1km aut cro cyp dnk esp fin fra gbr grc hun irl ita lat nld nor Average of 3 max indicator: (9, ,9 ) /3 = 8,4 6,6 Average of 3 min indicator : (5,8 + 6,1 + 6,2) /3 = 6,3 7,2 Direction = -1 ( decline in the indicator is favored) 9,3 Austria = 6.6 8, 7,1 Normalized score based on 3 min-max average = 6,2 6,8 Indicator min indicator +.5*(1 - direction) 5,8 (max indicator min indicator) * direction 6, 7,9 6, ,1 +,5 * (1- (-1)) (8,4 6,3 )* (-1) 7,8 7,6 6,4Normalized score =.76 (where range with Austria = min-max method is -1) 22 Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

23 Scoreboard indicator tool 23 Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

24 Scoreboard: Country ranking (1/2) Ranking by sector. All countries are displayed with their score: by sector with the possibility to visualise results for trends and levels combined or for trends or levels only. Possibility to display the ranking by country and indicators (next slide). Ranking for all sectors (trends and levels) 24 Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

25 Scoreboard: Display of the ranking by indicator (2/2) 1 shows the 3 best ranking countries, 2 shows the next ones and so on. Ranking by indicator: case of transport 25 Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

26 Indicator scoreboard: new developments The weighting by end-use for households, transport and services, initially based on the same weight for all countries will be based on the actual average share over the last 3 years in each country s consumption. The indicator scores for level, initially based on the last year available, will be calculated as an average of the last 3 years, to avoid fluctuations in the score from one year to another (e.g. due to data revisions). The indicators score, initially calculated with the best 3 countries at 1 will be calculated with only the best country to 1 to better spread the scores. To harmonise with the policy score, where the best country by sector is equal to 1, which never happened for the indicators scores as they are based on different indicators with no country having 1, the sectoral score and total score will be normalized so as to score the best country at 1). 26 Source: Lapillonne et al. Benchmarking with indicators "ODYSSEE-MURE"

27 Policies and indicators Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

28 EEI and policy evaluation Top-down indicators for energy efficiency may allow to evaluate policies. Generally several policy measures target the same end-use à mapping of measures 28 Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

29 EEI and policy evaluation: case of households Heating: specific consumption per m2/dwelling at normal climate (toe/m2) (stock average and new dwellings) è shows the impact of building regulations, of policies to promote efficient boilers and to support building refurbishment Water heating: unit consumption per dwelling è shows the impact of policies to promote solar water heaters and efficient boilers diffusion of solar water heaters (m2 installed) è shows the impact of policies to promote solar water heaters Large electrical appliances (refrigerators, freezers, washing machine, dishwashers, dryers and TV) : specific consumption per appliance (kwh/year) è shows the impact of labelling, efficiency standards, Voluntary Agreements and other measures to promote efficient appliances Lighting: specific consumption per dwelling (kwh/year) è shows the combined effect of labelling, standards and other measures to promote CFL, as well as behaviours penetration/sales of CFL è shows the impact of labelling, of standards and other policies to promote CFL (Compact Fluorescent Lamps) 29 Source: Lapillonne et al. Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

30 Additional slides Details on ODEX method Energy efficiency at end-use level in ODYSSEE

31 ODEX - Calculation in 3 steps (1/2) 1. Calculation of energy efficiency indicators by subsector from energy consumption and activity data by sub-sector and conversion in indices; 2. Calculation of weighting factors by sub-sector, i.e. shares of sub-sector s consumption in total consumption of the sector; 3. Calculation of the energy efficiency index for the sector as a whole. 31 Source: Lapillonne et al. ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE

32 ODEX - Calculation in 3 steps (2/2)* 1. Specific consumption (Index by sub-sector) Chemicals (toe/1) (index) 8.5 (1) 8.3 (98) 8.2 (96) 8.2 (96) Steel (toe/tonne) (index).3 (1).29 (97).26 (87).25 (83) Chemicals (Mtoe) (%) 2 (5) 2 (48) 2 (44) 22 (46) Steel (Mtoe) (%) 2 (5) 22 (52) 25 (56) 26 (54) 3. Sector index Energy consumption (Weight) IE211 = IE21 x (98 x x.52) = 97.4 IE212 = IE211 x (96/98 x /97 x.56) = 9.9 IE213 = IE212 x (96/96 x /87 x.54) = 88,6 è Energy efficiency improvement by 11.4% between 21 and 213 (=1-88.6) * Fictive example considering only 2 branches of industry) ODEX and savings by sector in ODYSSEE 32

33 Odyssee Project Switzerland Energy efficiency indicators for Households and Transport Sector Bern, 29th May, 218 Selin Yilmaz, Navdeep Bhadbhade, Martin Patel Chair for Energy Efficiency, University of Geneva 1

34 Contents 2. Transport sector 1. Household sector Energy profile Energy profile Transport modes Space heating and electricity Road transport ODEX-Households Railway Decomposition analysis Air transport Target monitoring ODEX Transport Benchmarking Decomposition analysis Conclusions Target monitoring Benchmarking Conclusions 2

35 Household Sector 3

36 Household sector Final energy consumption All sectors Household sector 241 PJ 29% 3% 3% 35% 37 PJ 36% 13% 27% 142 PJ 17% Industry 7% 156 PJ 18% Space.84% heating Household 14% 14% Service Transport Cooking Oil Air cooling Gas Coal 2% Hot water Appliances (incl. Lighting) Electricity Heat Biomass Consumption of final energy in Switzerland by sectors (source: Prognos et al., 217) 4

37 Final energy consumption - Households Population (1. % p.a.) Final energy consumption (Mtoe) Floor area in (million m2) Number in thousands Floor area (1.4% p.a.) Final energy consumption WITH climatic corrections (-.5% p.a.) Energy* demand Activity* Energy efficiency Index* % p.a Population.95% p.a. -1.5% p.a. Dwelling 1.2% p.a. -1.8% p.a. Floor area 1.4% p.a. -1.9% p.a. Sources: Kemmler et al., (217) Swiss Statistical Offices * Linear trend 5 Final energy consumption per floor area (MJ/m2) Dwelling (1.2% p.a.) Final energy consumption (toe) Final energy per inhabitant (-1.5% p.a.)

38 Space heating - Households Space heating per inhabitant (-1.9% p.a.) Space heating WITH climatic corrections (-1.% p.a.) Final consumption (Mtoe) Space heating consumption (GJ) per dwe/inh Number in thousands Floor area (1.4% p.a.) Energy* demand % p.a Activity* Energy efficiency Index* Population 1.% p.a. -1.9% p.a. Dwelling 1.2% p.a. -2.% p.a. Floor area 1.4% p.a. -2.3% p.a. Sources: Kemmler et al., (217) Swiss Statistical Offices * Linear trend 6 Space heating consumption per floor area (MJ/m2) Population (1. % p.a.) Floor area in (million m2) Dwelling (1.2% p.a.)

39 Cooking & Hot water- Households Hot water consumption per dwelling (-1.1% p.a.) Population (1. % p.a.) Hot water (-.1% p.a.) Area in (million m2) 1 Final energy consumption (ktoe) Number in thousands Floor area (1.4% p.a.) Final energy consumption per dwelling (GJ/dwelling) Dwelling (1.2% p.a.) Cooking (.5% p.a.) Cooking consumption per dwelling (.5% p.a.) Activity* Energy efficiency index* 8 Hot water Cooking Population 1.% p.a. -1.% p.a. -.4% p.a. 4 Dwelling 1.2% p.a % p.a. -.5% p.a. 2 Floor area 1.4% p.a % p.a. -.8% p.a Sources: Kemmler et al., (217) Swiss Statistical Offices * Linear trend 7

40 Electricity consumption - Households Electricity consumption per dwelling (-.3% p.a.) Population (1. % p.a.) Floor area in (million m2) Number in thousands Floor area (1.4% p.a.) Electricity consumption per floor area (-.5% p.a.) Final consumption (Mtoe) 2 Final electricity consumption per floor area (kwh/m2) Electricity consumption per inhabitant (-.1% p.a.) Final electricity consumption per inhabitant/dwelling (kwh/inh, dwe) Dwelling (1.2% p.a.) Electricity consumption (.8% p.a.) Energy* demand % p.a Activity* Energy efficiency index* Population 1.% p.a. -.1% p.a. Dwelling 1.2 p.a. -.3% p.a. Floor area 1.4% p.a. -.5% p.a. Sources: Kemmler et al., (217) Swiss Statistical Offices * Linear trend 8

41 Electricity consumption - Households 2 Electricity consumption (TWh) 18 Air cooling Cooking 12 1 Hot water 8 Space heating*: Water heating: Cooking: Air cooling: Electrical appliances: +.5% p.a. +.18% p.a. +1.4% p.a % p.a. +.11% p.a. Total: +.8% p.a. Population increase: +.95% p.a. Space heating 6 4 Electrical appliances (inc. Lighting) Based on linear trend *) Resistance heating and heat pumps Source: Kemmler et al. (217) 9

42 Electricity consumption - Households 25 Electricity consumption per floor area (GWh/m2) Electricity consumption per inhabitant (kwh/inh) Electricity consumption per dwelling (kwh/dwelling) Trend between (2-216)* Electricity consumption Space heating per floor area -1.4% per inhabitant -1.1% per dwelling -1.2% Hot water Cooking Air cooling Electrical appliances (inc. Lighting) -1.7% -.32% 1.8% -.67%.8% 2.2% -.8% -.5% 2.1% -.3%.1% -.3% Total -.7% -.3% -.4% * Trend calculated between first and last year Sources: Kemmler et al., (217) Swiss Statistical Offices 1

43 Appliances - Households Electricity consumption of appliances (TWh) Ownership ratios of appliances per dwelling Percentage (%) Freezers Dishwashers Tv sets 22 Refrigerator Washing machines Tumble dryers Computers Increase of appliance ownership ratio per dwelling (people owning more and more appliances) and increase of dwellings led to increase total electricity consumption. However, due to increase in energy efficient appliances (A+++), electricity consumption has decreased for several appliances, e.g. refrigerators. 11

44 ODEX & EEI Final energy INDEX 2 = 1 12 Unit consumption index 1 Heating per floor area (with climatic corrections) Water heating index 8 6 Cooking index 4 2 Large elec appliances index INDEX 2 = 1 12 ODEX ODEX: Average improvement of energy efficiency at rate of 1.3% per year (linear trend) Source: Odyssee - database 12

45 Decomposition analysis - Households MTOE Decomposition of final energy consumption of residential sector (2-216) Total change Colder climate More More dwellings appliances per dwelling Larger homes Energy savings Other* Source: Odyssee - database 13

46 Target monitoring : Comparison with Swiss energy strategy objectives Households Without climatic corrections Odyssee (2-216)* POM (222)* NEP (22-235)* Final energy per capita -1.5% p.a. -.8% p.a. -2.9% p.a. Final energy per floor area -1.9% -1.5% p.a. -3.2% p.a. *Linear trend Source for POM and NEP: Prognos 25 Until 22, (slight) over-compliance for final energy per area. For the time period , an acceleration of EE improvement by a factor of 1.8 (1.7 to 1.9) is required. 14

47 Benchmarking - Households, Final energy Final energy consumption per dwelling (GJ/dw) Final energy consumption per floor area (MJ/m2) 2 Malta Portugal Bulgaria Spain Cyprus Romania (RO) Greece (GR) Lithuania (LT) Slovakia (SK) Netherlands (NL) EU28 United Kingdom (GB) Estonia (EE) Italy (IT) Ireland (IE) France (FR) Poland (PL) Germany (DE) Latvia (LV) Switzerland Slovenia (SI) Hungary (HU) Croatia (HR) Denmark (DK) Czech Rep. (CZ) Sweden Austria Norway Belgium Finland Luxembourg Portugal (PT) Cyprus (CY) Spain (ES) Bulgaria (BG) Netherlands (NL) Ireland (IE) Greece (GR) Switzerland Denmark (DK) Slovakia (SK) United Kingdom (GB) Norway (NO) EU 28 Italy (IT) France (FR) Germany (DE) Sweden (SE) Lithuania (LT) Austria (AT) Slovenia (SI) Croatia (HR) Poland (PL) Hungary (HU) Czech Rep. (CZ) Romania (RO) Latvia (LV) Estonia (EE) Average dwelling floor area: Switzerland: 99 m2 Italy: 94 m2 France: 94 m2 Germany: 94 m2 United Kingdom: 9 m2 Lithunia: 46 m2 Source: Odyssee database 15

48 Indicator Scoreboard - Households Level Scoreboard Trend Scoreboard (2-215) 4th 11th Heating per m2 5th Other thermal uses 12th Appliances 15th Solar water heater penetration Heating per m2 trend Other thermal uses trend Appliances trend 2nd 12th 13th 15th 16 Source: Odyssee database

49 Conclusions Households Trends to date: Activity development (2-216): +1.4% p.a. more floor area Energy efficiency (final energy consumed/physical activity in terms of floor area) improved at the rate of approx. 1.9% p.a.; ODEX improved at 1.3% p.a. Combination activity growth and EE improvement has resulted in final energy savings of -.5% p.a. Benchmarking: EE level of Swiss households is - in the upper half, if measured per floor area (m2) - In the lower half, if measured per dwelling. EE trend of Swiss households is quite average. Target monitoring: Trend reversal is in very early stage. Current rate of physical EE improvement needs to be accelerated by a factor of 1.8 in order to reach 235 target for total final energy demand. 17

50 Swiss Transportation Sector 18

51 Swiss Transport Energy profile TOTAL FINAL ENERGY USE FOR SWISS TRANSPORT SWISS TRANSPORT - FUEL MIX 4% Air transport 3% 4% 24% 2 46% 1 Water transport.13% Rail transport 5% 69% 48% Cars % 22 Motorcycle Busses 1% 4% Source: PROGNOS, Motor gasoline Diesel oil LPG Natural gas Hard and Brown coal Electricity Biofuels Source: Statistique globale suisse de l énergie, FSO,

52 Unit consumption of car (koe/car) Specific consumption of cars (l/1km) Road transport - Cars Passenger-Km INDEX 2=1 Car stock 14 INDEX 2= Cars Average annual change* (2216) Stock 1.5% 218 Final energy consumption - Cars INDEX 2= Petrol -.5% 1 Diesel 14.8% 9 Passenger-km 1.4% 8 Final consumption -.6% 7 Unit consumption per car (toe/car) -2.1% Unit consumption per p-km (toe/pkm) -2.% * Calculated based on the values of first and last year. 218 l/1km -2.4% Technical efficiency improvement 2

53 Decomposition analysis - Cars Decomposition analysis Cars (2-216) EE indicators for Swiss cars (2-216) Activity Technical savings -.5 l/1km toe/car toe/pkm lower car occupancy Variation of Total change consumption % p.a. change Mtoe/year Other savings (substitution, load factor) -2.5 Source: ODYSEE-MURE decomposition tools l/1 km has the fastest rate of decrease amongst the alternative EEIs. This indicates improvement in technical efficiency of cars (also reflected in decomposition analysis). toe/car and l/1 km are practically identical, indicating no reduction in mileage (e.g. due to shift to public transport or non motorized transport). Savings in terms of toe/pkm are lower than in terms of toe/car due to lower car occupancy. 21

54 Air transport Unit consumption air transport Number of passengers Index 2=1 INDEX 2= Total final energy demand Change in % p.a. (24-216)* Energy demand 12 1 INDEX 2=1 26 Activity Energy efficiency index 2.4% -2.2% 8.2% 6 Passenger data is available from FSO. Energy consumption data is estimated based on PROGNOS report * Calculated based on linear trend Passengers

55 Railway Unit consumption of rail (energy consumed/tkm) INDEX = 2=1 INDEX 2=1 Activity (passenger and goods) Total final energy consumed Change in % p.a. (24-216)* 14 Energy demand 12 INDEX 2=1 22 Activity Energy efficiency index 1.8% -.9% 1 8.9% Passengers 6 *Calculated based on linear trend. Activity : Weighted using train s technical coefficients for passenger and goods (gross tonne hauled per tkm)

56 Transport Total Total final energy per Person-Km Total final energy consumption Passenger-Km Transport ODEX INDEX 2=1 INDEX 2= Average annual change (2-216)* ODEX (including air transport) ODEX (excluding air transport) -1.4% -1.3% Consumption per car equivalent -2.1%** Consumption per Passenger-km -1.8%*** Total final energy consumption +.1% Passenger-km 1.6% The ODEX for transport is an aggregation of trends of each transport mode. Unit consumption for transport modes: - Road: total final energy consumed per car equivalent - Cars: total final energy consumption per passenger-km - Trucks, buses and motorcycles: Total final energy consumed per vehicle - Railway: Total final energy consumed per t-km - Air: Total final energy consumed per passenger * Calculated based on linear trend. ** Consumption of all vehicles/equivalent number of cars *** Energy consumption/gross pkm of all transport modes (excluding air) 24

57 Decomposition analysis Decomposition of energy consumption of transport (2-216) Mtoe Total change Activity Energy savings 1.5%p.a. 1.4% p.a. Swiss energy strategy objective Required rate Energy consumed / pkm 2-22 POM Modal shift Source: ODYSEE-MURE decomposition tools Current rate -1.7% p.a. -1.8% p.a. Energy consumed / pkm NEP Other -3.2% p.a. Should be increased by a factor of

58 Benchmarking Level scoreboard based on l/1km (215) Trend scoreboard based st 24th Source: ODYSEE-MURE website scoreboard tool 26

59 Transport Conclusions Trends to date: Activity of the sector (Passenger-km; excluding air) grew at the rate of 1.5% p.a. Energy efficiency (ODEX) of the sector improved at the rate of 1.4% p.a. Faster rate of activity growth resulted in increase in total final energy demand of the Swiss transport sector at the rate of.1% p.a. during Target monitoring: To meet the Swiss energy strategy objective, rate of energy efficiency improvement should be 1.8 times the current rate. Benchmarking: Despite the improvement in energy efficiency, Swiss transport sector is ranked in the bottom half in comparison of European countries based on the indicator l/1km 27

60 Additional slides 28

61 Benchmarking - Households, Space heating Space heating consumption per floor area (MJ/m2) Malta (MT) Average dwelling floor area: 28 Portugal (PT) 62 Spain (ES) 183 Bulgaria (BG) Switzerland: 99 m2 Italy: 94 m2 France: 94 m2 Germany: 94 m2 Lithunia: 46 m2 271 Ireland (IE) 321 Netherlands (NL) 326 Greece (GR) 336 Slovakia (SK) 375 Sweden (SE) 45 European Union (EU28) 421 Switzerland 428 Italy (IT) 44 France (FR) 444 Germany (DE) 459 Denmark (DK) 492 Lithuania (LT) 513 Austria (AT) 516 Slovenia (SI) 524 Poland (PL) 571 Croatia (HR) 582 Estonia (EE) 593 Luxembourg (LU) 66 Czech Rep. (CZ) Source: Odyssee database 621 Latvia (LV) 656 Hungary (HU)

62 Decomposition analysis- Space heating of households Decomposition of space heating consumption of residential (2-216) Climatic difference between these two dates ("climatic effect") 1 mtoe Change in number of occupied dwelling ("more dwellings") Change in floor area of dwelling for space heating ("larger homes") Energy savings, as measured from ODEX; -1.5 Other effects (mainly change in heating behaviours). 3

63 Household sector, Activity over time inhabitants/dwe 2.5 Area/inhabitants Both ratios are approximately constant over the years. 31

64 Household sector, Appliances (SNF project) (1/2) 32

65 Household sector, Appliances (SNF project) (2/2) 33

66 Scoreboard methodology 34

67 ODYSSEE project Switzerland Energy efficiency indicators for Industry & Service Sector Bern, 29th May 218 Navdeep Bhadbhade, Selin Yilmaz, M. Jibran S. Zuberi, Martin K. Patel Chair for Energy efficiency, University of Geneva 1

68 Contents 1. Industry 2. Service sector Energy profile Energy profile Individual sectors Subsectors Cement industry ODEX Service sector Food and beverage Decomposition analysis industry Target monitoring Chemical industry Benchmarking Paper and pulp industry Conclusions Iron and steel industry ODEX-Industry Decomposition analysis Target monitoring Benchmarking Conclusions 2

69 Swiss industry sector 3

70 Swiss manufacturing sector Energy profile TOTAL FINAL ENERGY USE SWISS MANUFACTURING Other 16% Construction 5% Food and tobacco Textile and leather 12% 1% Paper and pulp 8% Energy water 1% 7% 3% 13% 4% 4% 42% 4% 4% 25% Machinery 3% Electronic products 4% Non metallic minerals 11% SWISS MANUFACTURING - FUEL MIX Basic and fabricated metals 14% Chemical and Pharma Source: PROGNOS, % 3% 4% 18% Diesel Heavy fuel oil Other oil products Natural gas Hard and Brown coal Electricity District heat Biomass Source: Swiss Federal Office of Energy 4 % 8%

71 Non metallic minerals (incl. cement production) Physical EE index Cement production (tonnes) 12 INDEX 24=1 Value added index (constant prices) (VA) 2 INDEX 24=1 Monetary EE index For EU, physical EE deterioration.22% p.a Change in % p.a. (24-216)* Total final energy consumption index Final energy demand 11 INDEX 24= % Activity Energy efficiency index Physical 1.% (PI) -1.5% Monetary 4.6% (VA) -4.9% Physical EE indicator- Total final energy consumed by sector/tonne of cement production. Monetary EE: Total final energy consumed/ value added Physical production data for cement is available in CEMSUISSE annual report. Total final energy consumption data is provided by SFOE * Calculated based on values of first and last year. 5

72 Food and beverage industry Physical EE index Production index proxy (PIP) 14 Value added index (constant prices) (VA) INDEX 24=1 12 INDEX 24= Final energy demand Change in % p.a. (24-216)* 218 Total final energy demand INDEX 24=1 Monetary EE index Activity Energy efficiency Physical 1.5% (PIP) -.3% Monetary 5.% (VA) -3.6% % Physical EE proxy indicator: Total final energy consumed by sector related to the production index. Monetary EE indicator: Total final energy consumed/value added Total final energy consumption data is provide by SFOE. 6 * Calculated based on values of first and last year.

73 Chemical industry Physical EE index 14 Value added index (constant prices) (VA) 12 INDEX 24=1 Production index proxy (PIP) INDEX 24= Monetary EE index Change in % p.a. (24-216)* Final energy demand Total final energy demand 21 Activity Energy efficiency index.1% (PIP) -.3% Monetary 7.6% (VA) -7.3% INDEX 24=1 12 Physical 1 -.2% Physical EE indicator proxy : Total final energy consumed by sector related to the production index. Monetary EE indicator: Energy consumed/value added. Total final energy consumption data is provided by SFOE. 7 PIP=Physical indicator proxy; VA=Value added * Calculated based on values of first and last year.

74 Paper and pulp industry Physical EE index 12 Value added index (constant prices) (VA) 1 INDEX 25=1 Paper production (tonnes) INDEX 24= Monetary EE index 8 For EU:.5% p.a. physical EE improvement Energy demand INDEX 24=1 1 Energy efficiency index -2.% (PI) -1.% (PIP) -3.2% -2.2% Monetary -.2% (VA) -5.% Physical -5.2% Activity Change in % p.a. (24-216)* 218 Total final energy consumption index 21 Physical EE indicator - Total final energy consumed by sector/ tonne of paper production. Monetary EE indicator: Energy consumed/value added Physical production data for paper is available in Swiss national inventory report. Total final energy consumption data is provided by SFOE. * Calculated based on values of first and last year. 8

75 Iron and steel industry Physical EE index Monetary EE index Steel production (tonnes) Physical EE improvement * EU:.8% p.a. * PL: 3.1% p.a. * IT: 1.6% p.a. 12 Value added index (constant prices) (VA) INDEX 24=1 1 INDEX 24= Change in % p.a. (24-216)* Total final energy consumption index Final energy demand 12 Activity Energy efficiency index Physical 1.7% (PI) -3.2% Monetary.4% (VA) -2.1% INDEX 24= % Physical EE indicator: Total final energy consumed by sector/ tonne of steel production. Monetary EE indicator: Energy consumed/value added Physical production data for steel is available in Swiss national inventory report. Total final energy consumption data is available from SFOE. * Calculated based on values of first and last year. 9

76 Swiss industry sector Total Production index proxy (PIP) Value added index (constant prices)(va) Total final energy demand ODEX 12 INDEX 2=1 INDEX 2= EU physical EE improvement: 1.2% p.a Change in % p.a. (24-216)* Final energy demand -.7% Monetary EE index Activity Energy efficiency index Monetary 5.6% (VA) -6.3% Physical 2.3% (PIP) -2.9% ODEX % ODEX for industry : Aggregation of physical EE indices of sub-sectors. Monetary EE indicator : Total final energy demand of industry/va of industry. * Calculated based on values of first and last year Odyssee energy efficiency index (ODEX) An indicator used to track energy efficiency development at aggregation level of country and sector. The ODEX for the industry is an aggregated indicator of physical energy efficiency trends of all sub sectors weighted by share of their final energy. 1

77 Decomposition analysis Industry sector Decomposition of final energy consumption in industry (25-216) Mtoe Total change.8% p.a.. Activity 2.3% p.a. (PIP) Structure Energy savings Other 1.2% p.a. (ODEX) Source: ODYSSEE-MURE Decomposition tool 11

78 Target monitoring Total final energy demand TJ Swiss energy strategy (SES) projection total final energy demand Monetary EE improvement RATE OF IMPROVEMENT (%P.A.). Physical EE improvement % p.a. reduction*) Current rate of EE improvement 1.2% % p.a. reduction *) Total required energy savings including activity effect, structural change and efficiency improvement. To meet the objective for 235, final energy consumption needs to be further reduced by at least.4% p.a. (by factor 1.35) (in case of zero activity growth) o by structural change and/or 12 o by accelerated EE improvement.

79 Scoreboard: Industry Sector Level Scoreboard Based on adjusted energy intensity for 215 (koe/25eur) Trend Scoreboard (2-215) 1st 15th Source: ODYSEE-MURE website scoreboard tool 13

80 Industry - Conclusions Trends to date: Activity of the sector (Production index proxy) grew at the rate of 2.3% p.a. Energy efficiency (ODEX; measure of physical EE) of the sector improved at the rate of 1.2% p.a. (24-216); improvement for all subsectors studied. Structural effect was major contributor to reduction in total final energy consumption followed by the contribution of energy efficiency improvement. Combination structural effect (growth of less energy intensive sub-sectors) and EE improvement results in decrease in total final energy consumption of Swiss industry (despite the faster growth in physical activity). Benchmarking: Energy efficiency in Swiss industry (1.2% p.a.) improved at same rate as that of EU industry (1.2% p.a.) during 24 to 216. Energy intensity level of Swiss industry is amongst the best in EU, while trend is average. Target monitoring: Current rate of physical EE improvement needs to be accelerated by at least around 35% in order to reach 235 target for total final energy demand. 14

81 Service Sector 15

82 Service sector, Final energy Service sector All sectors 3% 7% 37 PJ 36% 28% 241 PJ 29% 44% 18% 156 PJ 18% 142 PJ 17% Household Industry.1% Service Transport Oil Gas Coal Electricity Heat Other Consumption of final energy in Switzerland by sectors (source: Prognos et al., 217) 16

83 Final energy - Service Final energy consumption per employee (-1.6% p.a.) Final energy per employee (GJ/emp) 4 Final energy consumption per floor area (-1.2 % p.a.) Final energy per floor area (GJ/m2) 5 Floor area (.9% p.a.) 2 Floor area (m2 in millions) Employees (in thousands) Employee (1.6% p.a.) Final energy consumption (Mtoe) Final energy consumption WITH climatic corrections (-.1% p.a.) 5. Energy* demand 4. Activity* Energy efficiency index* % p.a Employee 1.6% p.a. -1.6% p.a. Floor area.9% p.a. -1.2% p.a. Sources: Federal Statistical Office Swiss Federal of Energy * Linear trend 17

84 Final electricity consumption Service sector Electricity consumption per employee (-1.1% p.a.) Electricity consumption per employee (MWh/employee) 15 4 Electricity consumption per floor area (-.5% p.a.) Electricity consumption per floor area (kwh/m2) 5 Floor area (.9% p.a.) 18 Floor area (m2 in millions) Employees (in thousands) Employee (1.6% p.a.) Final electricity consumption (Mtoe) Electricity consumption (.47% p.a.) Energy demand* 1.5 Activity* Energy efficiency index* 1.41% p.a Employee 1.6% p.a. -1.1% p.a. Floor area.9% p.a. -.5% p.a. Sources: Federal Statistical Office Swiss Federal of Energy * Linear trend 18

85 Energy and Electricity Consumption by branches Electricity consumption (TWh) Electricity consumption (TWh) Final energy consumtpion (Mtoe) Final energy consumption WITH climatic corrections (Mtoe) Total final energy and electricity consumption* Offices Health and social work Wholesale Hotels and restaurants Education Others Total Final energy Electricity.14%.% -.76% -.4% 1.27% -2.35% -.28% 1.34% 1.3%.31%.18% 2.78% -.7%.94% * Trend calculated between first and last year 19 Sources: Federal Statistical Office Swiss Federal of Energy

86 Energy and Electricity Consumption per employee Electricity consumption per employee Electricity consumption (MWh/employee) Final energy consumption (toe/employee) Final energy consumption per employee Unit consumption trend per annum Offices Health and social work Wholesale Hotels and restaurants Education Others Total Energy consumption per employee* -1.2% -2.4% -1.2%.4% -.4% -.5% -1.6% Electricity consumption per employee** -1.2% -2.4% -1.2%.4% -.4% -.5% -1.1% * Linear trend ** Trend calculated between first and last year 2 Sources: Federal Statistical Office Swiss Federal of Energy

87 ODEX Service sector ODEX The ODEX for service sector shows steady improvement in energy efficiency at the rate of 1.7% per annum (linear trend). Index 2= Final energy (with climate correction) - per m2 decreased by 1.2% - per employee decreased by 1.6%

88 Decomposition analysis Service sector MTOE Decomposition of final energy consumption of service sector (2-216) Source: Odyssee-Mure Decomposition tool Total change Change to Colder Climate climate Activity Energy savings Productivity Other 22

89 Target monitoring : Comparison with Swiss energy strategy objectives Service sector Floor area is assumed to increase by 16% from 21 to 235, i.e. by.6% p.a. Without climate correction Final energy per employee Odyssee (2-216) POM (222)* NEP (22-235)* -1.6% p.a. -.8% p.a. -1.2% p.a. Final energy -1.2% p.a. per floor area -.5% p.a. -1.8% p.a. *Linear trend Source: Prognos 25 EE improvement per floor area to date (by 1.2% p.a.) needs to be increased by a factor 1.5 to reach NEP 235 objectives. but EE improvement per employee seems sufficient. Policy objectives least ambitious among among all sectors. Absolute final energy demand of the entire service sector may have reached its maximum and seems to have started to decline (albeit with fluctuations). 23

90 Benchmarking - Service sector, final energy Energy consumption of services per employee (GJ/emp) Romania Portugal United Kingdom Cyprus Greece Bulgaria (BG) Lithuania (LT) Croatia (HR) Spain (ES) Ireland (IE) Denmark (DK) Malta (MT) Germany (DE) EU28 Netherlands (NL) France (FR) Slovenia (SI) Italy (IT) Estonia (EE) Poland (PL) Czech Rep. (CZ) Latvia (LV) Austria (AT) Slovakia (SK) Sweden (SE) Switzerland Belgium (BE) Luxembourg (LU) Norway Finland Source: Odyssee database

91 Benchmarking - Service sector, electricity Electricity consumption per employee in services (kwh/employee) Electricity consumption per area (kwh/m2) Romania (RO) United Kingdom (GB) Lithuania (LT) Austria (AT) Germany (DE) Latvia (LV) Denmark (DK) Switzerland (SUI) Ireland (IE) Czech Rep. (CZ) Netherlands (NL) European Union (EU28) Portugal (PT) France (FR) Poland (PL) Spain (ES) Bulgaria (BG) Croatia (HR) Italy (IT) Belgium (BE) Slovakia (SK) Cyprus (CY) Greece (GR) Luxembourg (LU) Slovenia (SI) Estonia (EE) Sweden (SE) Malta (MT) Finland (FI) Norway (NO) Denmark (DK) Switzerland (SUI) France (FR) Finland (FI) Sweden (SE) Spain (ES) Norway (NO) Source: Odyssee database 25

92 Scoreboard: Service Sector Trend Scoreboard (2-215) Level Scoreboard (215) 8th 16th Thermal use consumption Specific electricity consumption Thermal use consumption trend Specific electricity consumption 16th 7th 9th 2nd 26 Source: Odyssee database

93 Service sector Conclusions Trends to date: Activity development (2-216): +.9% p.a. more floor area Efficiency of final energy consumed improved * by 1.2% p.a. in terms of floor area * by 1.6% p.a. in terms of employee Combination activity growth and EE improvement has resulted in hardly any final energy savings (-.1% p.a.). Benchmarking: EE level of Swiss Service sector is average compared to EU (in GJ final energy/emp.). EE trend of Swiss Service sector is more competitive (8th rank). Target monitoring: EE improvement to date (by 1.2% p.a., per m2) to be improved by factor 1.5 to reach NEP 235 objectives (but sufficient per employee; policy objectives are not ambitious; based on future floor area increase by.6% p.a.) Trend reversal is in very early stage. 27

94 Additional slides 28

95 Production index proxy Turnover and producer price index statistics are available from federal statistical office. Producer price index tracks the changes in prices. Deflating the turnover by producer price index results in an indicator representing the change in the physical volume of production. Period T Period T1 Turnover Price index Turnover Price index CFH 11 1 CHF Industrial production index is calculated as a ratio of turnover/price index for two periods 12 17% 11 = Thus, in this example 11 will be the production index indicating the change in physical production between period T and T1. 29

96 ODYSSEE project Switzerland Summary and Conclusions Bern, 29th May 218 Navdeep Bhadbhade, Selin Yilmaz, M. Jibran S. Zuberi, Martin K. Patel Chair for Energy efficiency, University of Geneva 1

97 Summary of results across all sectors 2

98 Summary of results across all sectors Switzerland Final energy consumption (for Industry and Total: ) ODEX SEC Scoreboard SEC (POM) SEC (NEP) Level Trend Total Households -1.3% p.a. -1.9% p.a. (floor area) OK (overcompl.) improve by factor of 1.8 4th 11th 8th Services -1.2% p.a. (floor area) OK (overcompl.) improve by factor 1.5*) 16th 8th 12th Industry Transport Total -1.7% p.a. -1.2% p.a. -1.4% p.a. n/a -1.4% p.a. (pass.-km) OK**) OK (overcompl.) improve by factor 1.35***) 1st 15th 8th OK improve by factor th 1st 13th 12th 9th 1th -1.7% p.a. *) EE improvement based on floor area. **) EE improvement based on emplyee. ***) including structural change but for zero growth; or assuming that structural change will continue to compensate activity growth. 3

99 All sectors - Conclusions Trends to date: In all sectors, efficiency has been improving. EE improvement according to ODEX ranges from 1.2% p.a. (Industry) to 1.7% p.a. (Services). (for the Service sector, EE improvement acc. to ODEX may be overestimated due to the increase of employees). SECs of key indicators deviate from the ODEX by up to.6%-points. Scoreboard: For both level and trend, CH ranks approximately 1th (out of some 3). Target monitoring: Until 22, all sectors comply with the policy objectives. For the period until 235, EE improvement needs to be substantially accelerated for households & transport and - to a lesser extent - for industry. The Service sector is either on track or not depending on the chosen EEI. 4