Climate Change in Calgary What will it look like?

Transcription

1 Climate Change in Calgary What will it look like? Alberta Council for Environmental Education, ACEE Climate Chance Education and Outreach Workshop December 7, Climate Change in Calgary V03 1

2 Temperature Change 0.99 C Global Annual Average C Alberta Annual Increase from 1970s Climate Change in Calgary V03 2

3 Global Atmospheric Carbon ppm March 2017 March 2017 V03 3

4 V03 4 Climate Impacts and Failure to Address Top the 2017 Global Risks Report extreme weather events and failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as water crises has emerged as a consistently central feature of the GRPS risk landscape, strongly interconnected with many other risks, such as conflict and migration. Source: The Global Risks Report 2017, World Economic Forum

5 What is causing the climate to change? More GHG emissions Warmer atmosphere Increased capacity for water vapour More extreme weather events V03 5

6 V03 6 Climate Change Impacts are Serious Extreme weather over the last five years has been occurring with a regularity that s about three times the norm Insurance Journal, January 12, 2017 Over the past six fiscal years, the federal government spent more on recovering from large-scale natural disasters than in the previous 39 fiscal years combined. Canadian Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, Spring 2016 report

7 V03 7 Extreme Weather Disasters in Alberta Expected Outcomes

8 Climate Trends for Calgary V03 8

9 Prairie Climate Center Climate Change in Calgary V03 9

10 Prairie Climate Center Prairie Climate Atlas V03 10

11 Climatic Changes for Calgary* C 30 C 27 9 Source: City of Calgary, Climate Change Adaptation Research: Vulnerabilities, Risks and Adaptation Actions, 2017 V03 11

12 Climatic Changes for Calgary* Maximum 1 day precipitation 32% increase by 2050s V03 12

13 Climate Analogue Maps for Calgary Winter RCP 8.5 Summer RCP 8.5 Prepared by the Prairie Climate Center V03 13

14 Ecosystem Habitat Change Current 2050s V03 14

15 Mitigation V03 15

16 Emission Reduction Targets 2005 levels 80 % Emission reduction Global Paris Agreement, UN target to limit temperature increases to 2 C, and ideally to 1.5 C, beyond which we lose the ability to control by levels 20 % Emission reduction City of Calgary 2011 GHG Reduction Plan has a 2020 and 2050 target. The 2020 target will not be met. by 2020 V03 16

17 Collaborative Action 4% Direct emissions by City of Calgary Corporation 80% Corporate influence over community-wide activities Nov 24, 2016 Climate Change in Calgary V03 17

18 Calgary Community-wide Data V03 18

19 Adaptation V03 19

20 Climate Scenarios Developing Scenarios: Range of time scales and event/condition types Acute Chronic Minute Minutes Hour Hours Day Days Week Weeks Month Months Year Years Decade Decades Centuries Tornados Thunderstorm High Winds Shortduration, highintensity rainfall Wet weather Season Temperature Extremes (Heat and cold) Winter Snow/Ice Accumulation Drought Changes in seasonality V03 20

21 Calgary s Climate Risk Profile V03 21

22 Climate Impacts to the Watershed Water availability - How and when we receive precipitation will change making water management and storage more important - Decreased river flow due to glacier melt and an earlier spring More extreme precipitation events - Summers will be drier with higher risk of drought - Heat waves and drought elevates the risk of forest fires impacting water quality - Precipitation will fall with greater intensity increasing concerns of flooding and water quality V03 22

23 Climate Resilience V03 23

24 Building Climate Resilience V03 24

25 Calgary s Climate Resilience Plan GHG Reductions ges/energy- Savings/Climate- Change.aspx Climate Change in Calgary V03 25

26 Calgary s Climate Resilience Plan Resilience Actions ges/energy-savings/climate- Change.aspx V03 26

27 Calgary s Climate Resilience Plan YardSmart Tools and Resources ges/energy- Savings/Climate- Change.aspx Climate Change in Calgary V03 27

28 City of Calgary Contacts Faiza Farah Environmental and Safety Management Climate Education Program Melissa Hauzer Environmental and Safety Management Climate Education Program Twyla Kowalczyk Water Resources, Climate Adaptation V03 28