Area Review Skills Conclusion

Transcription

1 Area Review Skills Conclusion ANALYSIS FOR GREATER CAMBRIDGE GREATER PETERBOROUGH ENTERPRISE PARTNERSHIP Duncan Brown November 2016

2 Prepared for Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership in November For any queries about this report, please contact Duncan Brown or Martyn Gerard. Emsi would like to acknowledge the support of Stella Cockerill in producing the work, and local authority and FE college interviewees in informing it. About Emsi Emsi, a CareerBuilder company, turns labour market data into useful information that helps organisations understand the connection between economies, people and work. Using sound economic principles and good data, we build user-friendly services that help educational institutions, workforce planners and regional developers (such as LEPs) build a better workforce and improve the economic conditions in their regions Why? We understand that a skilled, well-prepared workforce drives economic prosperity. The successful development of that workforce requires the right training, recruiting, hiring and planning. These activities are largely dependent on our ability to process data that illuminates many facets of employment and human capital so we can make better decisions. Suite 22 Basingstoke Innovation Centre Norden House Basing View Basingstoke RG21 4HG Emsi 2016 Contents 0 Summary Introduction Economic overview Industry analysis The labour market Regional priorities Targeting occupations for delivery 37 Appendix A: Emsi s data Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

3 0 Summary 1 Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Local Enterprise Partnership (GCGP EP) works to develop a region with an especially diverse economic base. Generally prosperous and productive, the region s averages conceal significant differences at local level. Emsi data provides the necessary granularity and robust projects to make those investigations. 2 Growth has been driven and looks set to continue to be driven by administrative and support services and by professional, scientific and technical activities. But at the more detailed level, a number of niche industries are set to grow particularly fast: many of these are in construction or in local services, reflecting rapid population growth. 3 Analysis at local level highlights substantial differences: Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire have an impressive concentration of high-value, knowledge-intensive industries across education, science and engineering. 4 Other parts of the region are focused on a wide range of service industries, agriculture and food manufacturing, and have very different workforce needs as a result. Leading occupations and industries vary greatly by local area, and a series of profiles have been developed to accompany this report to unpack those differences. 5 As a Local Enterprise Partnership, GCGP EP have identified a number of strategically important sectors, which are critical for economic growth, securing capabilities to support growth, or face significant skills gaps. Analysis of these industries at local level suggests the need to manage their local concentrations differently and current concentrations are not always reflective of likely future growth. 6 To target the right skills, GCGP EP have also identified the need to support the development of Graduate and lowskilled labour markets, to support raising productivity while expanding employment. Reflecting the importance of advanced industries in the region, GCGP LEP have also highlighted the importance of ensuring supply to STEM occupations. 7 Combining data on future job openings, skills shortage levels, relevance to graduate, STEM and entry level labour markets, and relevance to priority sectors, Emsi have developed a list of 10 target occupations critical to the future of the region s economy in each of 4 segments, set out in summary form on the next pages. 3 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

4 Broad area SOC Description Cambridge area, High-skill Cambridge area, Low skill 2136 Programmers and software development professionals 2112 Biological scientists and biochemists Openings Change Change % change % change Nurses Laboratory technicians Mechanical engineers IT specialist managers Quantity surveyors Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c Engineering professionals n.e.c IT business analysts, architects and systems designers IT operations technicians Gardeners and landscape gardeners Draughtspersons Large goods vehicle drivers Production managers and directors in construction 5119 Agricultural and fishing trades n.e.c Construction and building trades n.e.c Business and related associate professionals n.e.c Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

5 Broad area SOC Description Rest of region, High skill Rest of region, Low skill 3537 Financial and accounting technicians Openings Change Change % change % change Groundsmen and greenkeepers Programmers and software development professionals IT specialist managers Mechanical engineers Biological scientists and biochemists 2139 Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c Nurses Quantity surveyors Engineering professionals n.e.c IT business analysts, architects and systems designers Graphic designers IT operations technicians Production managers and directors in construction 5113 Gardeners and landscape gardeners Large goods vehicle drivers Draughtspersons Construction and building trades n.e.c Engineering technicians Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

6 Broad area SOC Description 3537 Financial and accounting technicians 8229 Mobile machine drivers and operatives n.e.c Openings Change Change % change % change Groundsmen and greenkeepers Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

7 1 Introduction Area-based Reviews provide a valuable opportunity to refound education and training provision on robust analysis of the current and future path of the local economy. Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership have worked with Emsi to develop a robust, multi-dimensional picture of the region s economy and labour market, resulting in the identification of priority occupations to inform the development of curriculums and training delivery methods over the years ahead. Background and context The 2015 announcement by the Government of a comprehensive series of Area-based Reviews of Post-16 Education and Training set in train a process to improve financial resilience and sharpen further education and training provision to better meet the needs of learners and employers within their local area. The Reviews form part of the government s wider agenda to raise productivity, in which human capital development will play an important role. As a result, Further Education (FE) colleges across England stand at the threshold of potentially significant educational reform and change. There exist widespread opportunities to transform and improve the value of the colleges in terms of their employer engagement, improved local career opportunities, course/curriculum alignment to the needs of the local economy, and more. However, in the fast changing economic and social environment they operate in, FE colleges are facing increasing challenges in their effort to identify and quantify course needs for local residents and businesses. In their efforts to meet these challenges, they must account for the changing economic and labour market demands within their regions, as well as the changing quality and composition of the area s workforce. As technology progresses and trade patterns shift, a growing need to address increasingly complex and specialised occupational tasks requires additional customisation to education and training. As a result, colleges are increasingly called upon to incorporate relevant workforce development and technical courses in order to meet the needs of students and businesses in their service area a departure from traditional supply-based education toward a demand-driven model. Purpose of the report This report provides the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough Enterprise Partnership (GCGP EP) with a Skills Conclusion, to serve as a labour market intelligence foundation for its Area Review. It aims to provide the LEP and its stakeholders in education and training, but also in business and economic development with a better understanding of the changing shape and texture of the GCGP region s economy and labour market. By exploring the composition and trends in the overall labour market and in each of the cities and districts within the region, cutting across industries 7 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

8 and occupations, it offers strategists and curriculum planners insights on what kinds of jobs the GCGP economy will needs to succed. The research builds towards a skills conclusion which identifies the occupations of critical importance to the GCGP economy over the years to Along the way, it offers intelligence into the differences between the regions and the distribution of those critical occupations across the GCGP region s cities and districts. n Job openings, skills shortages, priority sectors and presence in key labour markets are combined to identify a set of 20 priority occupations which are most critical for the future skills supply. Additional data on specific questions are drawn from official sources, specifically the ONS Labour Force Survey and the UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2015 (for skills shortage vacancies). Methodology The analysis draws primarily upon Emsi s data on local labour market composition and trends. Described in more detail in Appendix A, Emsi s data is derived from official sources including the Business Register and Employment Survey and the Labour Force Survey, combined using Emsi s proprietary algorithms to develop unrivalled granularity 4-digit SIC industries, 4-digit SOC occupations, measured down to Local Authority District level. Projections are established using Emsi s own methodology, annually updated but benchmarked against the UKCES Working Futures growth rate projections. The analysis proceeds as follows: n An economic overview sets out the headline picture of the GCGP region in terms of industry and occupational make-up. n Local differences are explored, specifically focusing on significant niche industries and high occupations distinguishing the GCGP region s cities and districts. n GCGP LEP s priority, key to growth and identified skills gap sectors are explored for their distribution and outlook. 8 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

9 2 Economic overview The GCGP region offers a large and diverse economy, ranging from world-leading clusters of knowledgeintensive industry and areas with a heavy presence of agriculture, as well as a spread of lower-value industries in parts of the region. Understanding the headline composition of the economy and labour market helps to set analysis of local areas and key industries in context. The GCGP regional economy The GCGP area is prosperous by national standards: placed 10 th in 2014 on the ONS s measure of GVA per head, a 36 billion economy. 1 The labour market is particularly robust: 82.2 per cent are economically active, 79.1 per cent employed compared to 77.9 per cent and 73.8 per cent respectively for Great Britain. 2 The average can be deceptive, however. One hint of this is that, despite the region s universities and its presence in knowledgeintensive industries, its overall qualification profile is similar to the Great Britain average. At local level, South Holland has 24.7 per cent of its workforce holding degrees, while in South Cambridgeshire, 51 per cent are graduates (Great Britain 37.1 per cent). Equally, average weekly pay for full-time workers in South Holland is 444 pounds in 2015, compared to 620 pounds in South Cambridgeshire (Great Britain 530 pounds). 3 Productive but varied The charts on the next two pages help to locate the GCGP region in the context of other regions within England. The first chart shows the path of all LEP regions from 2004 to 2014 in terms of productivity and employment. GCGP scores well on employment and in the top quartile for productivity, and has also improved over that decade but it is some way behind the leading regions in terms of productivity. The second chart helps to explain why. Despite the reputation of the Cambridge area for its high-skill, knowledge-intensive economy, GCGP as a whole is a region which does not lead for graduate skills and high-skill jobs and on the latter count, has fallen behind others over the decade to 2014, from 10 th to 14 th among LEP regions. 1 ONS (2016). GVA for Local Enterprise Partnerships, August. N.B.: this refers to boundaries at the time. 2 Figures from ONS APS June Figures from ONS APS December 2015 and ONS ASHE Resident Analysis Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

10 10 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

11 11 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

12 3 Industry analysis The GCGP region has a varied industry structure, with a manufacturing base spanning low- and high-value production, an extensive service economy and a knowledge-intensive sector ranging from life sciences to software. Over time, this is changing, and the demand for skills with it. Industry composition The chart on the next page highlights the changing pattern of the GCGP region s industry structure using high-level sectors (SIC 2007 sections). Mapping them in terms of employment from 2003 to 2016, and average earnings, shows that the largest employer was wholesale and retail trade, but the biggest movers have been manufacturing (a 20,000 job decline), and then a range of low- and high-value services administrative and support services adding 33,000 and professional, scientific and technical activities 25,000. Table 1 sets out the employment composition of the GCGP region over , again using high-level sectors. Crude analysis of employment again shows us that wholesale and retail trade (SIC section G) is the largest sector in the GCGP economy. But in truth, this is the same in most areas it s the largest-employing sector in the British economy. To look past these patterns, we can use Location Quotients, which compare the share of employment locally to that nationally; as scores get further above 1, then a sector is more important. Using Location Quotients for 2016, we can see that the wholesale and retail trade sector is in line with national trends with an LQ of 1.06 (once LQ is more than 1.2 it is viewed as regionally significant ). Instead, the agriculture and administrative support sectors stand out for high Location Quotients especially agriculture, where the region has twice the share of employment than the Great Britain average. However, the rapid growth of administrative and support services stands out it is nearly significant (LQ 1.17), and it has seen a substantial move in that direction (LQ was 0.94 in 2003). After Table 1 is a further chart, showing the pattern of job growth since 2003 and projected to In large part, existing trends are projected to continue, but with some important differences: proportionately, growth will be focused in areas such as health and social work and construction the latter is projected to grow 15 per cent in just six years, reflecting the rapid population growth in some parts of the region. 12 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

13 13 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

14 SIC Description Change Change % change % change Location Quotient A Agriculture, forestry and fishing B Mining and quarrying C Manufacturing D E Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities F Construction G Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles H Transportation and storage I Accommodation and food service activities J Information and communication K Financial and insurance activities L Real estate activities M N O Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support services Public administration and defence; compulsory social security Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

15 P Education Q R Human health and social work activities Arts, entertainment and recreation S Other service activities Table 1: Industry sections in the GCGP region Data: Emsi Industries 15 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

16 16 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

17 Significant industries in the GCGP region The chart on the next page uses Location Quotient analysis to look in more detail (using SIC groups, confined to those with at least 5,000 employees), highlighting the top 10 of these narrower industry groupings. The most marked industry, and also one that has seen its Location Quotient increase markedly from 2003 is scientific research and development. Focused around Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire s life sciences cluster, this industry has an LQ of 4.9 and employed 16,200 people in the GCGP region in 2016, at an average earnings per worker of 38,684. There are other knowledge-intensive trades in the mix computer programming, and manufacturing of computer products and machinery and equipment. All of these industries have average pay of 30,000 and more. But at the same time, the region also has a mix of less well-paid industries: crop and animal production, food manufacturing, printing, employment activities, and building services. So at this level, it is clearly not sufficient to see the GCGP region as defined by the knowledge-intensive industries it has there is much more besides. For a more dynamic view, projected onto the future, we can look at the competitive effect from a Shift-Share analysis. A shift-share breaks down the growth in a local area by the effect of national growth trends and their impact on local industry composition. If some growth locally isn t accounted for by these factors, then it must reflect underlying local competitiveness. Using projections to 2022, this Shift-Share analysis highlights metal products manufacturing and scientific research and development as two of the fastest locally-growing industries. But the area s population growth seems to be fuelling growth in construction: civil engineering, specialised construction activities and real estate all figure highly. Industries driving growth Table 2 uses the change in Location Quotients to 2022 to highlight those industries which are driving growth through the region s increasing specialisation in them. This time, the analysis looks at a very narrow level (using SIC classes). While again the knowledge-intensive industries make an appearance, with natural sciences and engineering R&D growing by 10 per cent, it is the effects of population growth which stand out: secondary education, real estate rental activities, cleaning of buildings, plumbing and heating installation all feature. 17 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

18 18 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

19 19 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

20 Industry Description Job expansion Job expansion % Earnings Location Quotient 4322 Plumbing, heat and air-conditioning installation Sale of cars and light motor vehicles Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles Postal activities under universal service obligation Beverage serving activities Other telecommunications activities Renting and operating of own or leased real estate Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering General cleaning of buildings General secondary education Table 2: Industries leading the growth of the GCGP economy Data: Emsi Industries using the relative change in Location Quotients Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

21 4 The labour market Skills are held by workers, and workers hold jobs in particular occupations. Occupations offer a different perspective from industries, because one occupation can feature in a wide range of different industries. The mix of occupations can also help us to shed light on the geographical differences within the GCGP region. Occupational structure We explore occupations through the Standard Occupational Classification, which categorises jobs within 369 different roles, which can then be aggregated into broader categories. The chart on the next page uses a very broad categorisation, of high and middle skill roles, and those characterised by being service-intensive (typically care and customer service) and labourintensive (factory operatives and elementary jobs). 4 It then breaks down that categorisation by Local Authority area within the GCGP region. Overall, 40 per cent of GCGP jobs are in high-skill roles and 21 per cent in middle-skill roles. The remainder are split 16 per cent in service-intensive roles and 23 per cent in labour-intensive roles. But the distribution of those roles by area shows a marked difference. Cambridge stands out most of all, with 54 per cent of jobs in highskill roles and only 13 per cent in labour-intensive roles. At the other extreme, South Holland has 29 per cent in high-skill roles and 36 per cent in labour-intensive roles. For the relatively small geographic distance between these two areas, the difference in employment pattern is profound. South Cambridgeshire is similar to Cambridge, and while some are closer, generally all areas are closer to South Holland than they are to the greater Cambridge area on this analysis. Table 3 uses a further breakdown (into SOC major groups) to summarise the pattern of occupational change in the GCGP region, and highlights the important role played by growth in professional occupations (31 per cent 2003 to 2016), care and leisure occupations (29 per cent) and elementary occupations (21 per cent). But the patterns of employment suggest that it is the changes professionals and elementary occupations which have not been equally distributed between areas. Analysis of occupational make-up of each area reinforces the story of local difference, with a marked difference, with two-thirds of Cambridge residents holding degrees compared to less than a quarter in many parts of the region. Again, only South Cambridgeshire comes close to Cambridge and on this measure, only by some distance. 4 High-skill=SOC major groups 1-3, Middle-skill=SOC major groups 4 and 5, Service-intensive=SOC major groups 6 and 7, Labourintensive=SOC major groups 8 and Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

22 22 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

23 SOC Major Group Managers, directors and senior officials Change Change % change % change Professional occupations Associate professional occupations Administrative and secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure and other service occupations Sales and customer service occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Total Table 3: Occupational major groups across the GCGP region Data: Emsi Occupations 23 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

24 24 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

25 Significant occupations in the GCGP region Following the similar method in looking at industry growth, Table 4 looks at narrowly-defined occupations (SOC unit groups) in terms of the shift of Location Quotient projected to 2022, to highlight increasing specialisation within the region. As with industry, many of these occupations are already specialised within the GCGP region. Again, there is a genuine diversity between highly qualified, highly paid graduate roles chemical scientists, biological scientists, social scientists and a longer list of less well-paid roles at lower skill levels. Some of these are in construction roofers and road construction operatives but some are in the local service sector, like window cleaners and cleaners. Then a few others characterise particular industries printers, textiles workers, and those working in post and mail sorting Regional job openings Table 5 summarises job openings by SOC major group, by local authority area. The pattern of difference between local authorities come through clearly again. Overall, Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire are projected to account for 24 per cent of openings but that rises to 37 per cent for professional job openings. Meanwhile, South Holland and King s Lynn and West Norfolk account for 11 per cent of openings overall, but 8 per cent of professional job openings. St Edmundsbury accounts for 9 per cent of job openings, but 15 per cent of elementary occupation openings. In sum, the region s labour market shows a marked differentiation between Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire and the rest of the region. While the rest of the region itself has some diversity, the distance between greater Cambridge and the other local authorities seems the decisive factor in understanding the region s labour market. 25 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

26 Occupation Description Openings Job expansion % Median Earnings 2111 Chemical scientists Biological scientists and biochemists Social and humanities scientists Roofers, roof tilers and slaters Textiles, garments and related trades n.e.c Printers Road construction operatives Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers Window cleaners Elementary cleaning occupations n.e.c Table 4: Occupations leading the growth of the GCGP economy Data: Emsi Occupations using the relative change in Location Quotient Education Level Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 GCSE at grades D-G; Level 1 NVQ; BTEC Introductory / Level 2 GCSE at grades D-G; Level 1 NVQ; BTEC Introductory / Level 2 GCSE at grades D-G; Level 1 NVQ; BTEC Introductory / Level 2 Location Quotient Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

27 Cambridge East Cambridgeshire Fenland Forest Heath Huntingdonshire King's Lynn and West Norfolk North Hertfordshire Peterborough Rutland South Cambridgeshire South Holland South Kesteven St Edmundsbury Uttlesford Managers, directors and senior officials Professional occupations Associate professional occupations Administrative and secretarial occupations Skilled trades occupations Caring, leisure and other service occupations Sales and customer service occupations Process, plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations Total Table 5: Job openings by occupational major group and local authority area Data: Emsi Occupations 27 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

28 5 Regional priorities GCGP EP has identified a number of priority sectors for their importance in driving the future path of the local economy, securing key capabilities, and underpinning the local economic base. Analysis of employment in these growth and skills gap sectors, and in key occupational segments, and understanding their local concentrations can help to identify where different skills needs may be most critical to supporting local economic growth. GCGP s strategic priorities As a Local Enterprise Partnership, GCGP LEP has identified a number of priority sectors marked out for importance to the local economy. The sectors are set out in Table 6 (right), and cover a range of industries for different reasons. Major growth sectors are identified for their value in leading local economic growth, especially supporting knowledge-intensive, high-value production and serving markets with long-term opportunities. Key-to-growth sectors provide capabilities which maintain the region s competitiveness, and significant skills gap sectors are a much wider range of industries which are important to the local economic base and whose frustration by persistent skills gap could hold the region back. Major growth sectors Aerospace & defence Cleantech Agritech Creative & digital Life sciences Significant skills gap and key to growth sectors Advanced manufacturing Food manufacturing Logistics & warehousing Health ICT Financial services Table 6: GCGP LEP major growth, key to economic growth and significant skills gap sectors Given the population growth reported across the region, with ambitious housing plans, an additional step was made to include Construction in the list of skills gap sectors. 28 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

29 Priority sector size and growth The chart on the next page identifies the growth path of each priority sector within the GCGP region, while the chart on this page shows the trajectory of Location Quotients. Two important points stand out. First, the region stands out for its concentrations in advanced manufacturing, agritech, life sciences and food manufacturing. The first two of these have also seen increased specialisation in recent year, moving to become increasingly prominent within the region especially agritech. (It s worth noting that aerospace and defence may be under-estimated as it does not include military activities which are difficult to reliably estimate with labour market intelligence, but are part of the region s labour market.) The second point is that the path of employment growth can mislead in this sense: where agritech s increasing concentration within the GCGP region is reflected in particularly rapid growth since 2003, advanced manufacturing has been stable in employment terms. The increased specialisation of advanced manufacturing in GCGP reflects relatively stable employment while jobs have been lost elsewhere in the country. Location Quotient analysis within the region (the two charts after the growth profiles) highlights the particular strengths and weaknesses across the different locales. The high-skill, higheducation workforce in Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire is reflected in high concentrations of life sciences, advanced manufacturing and ICT. Food manufacturing is concentrated in South Holland, but also a number of other districts. Agritech, although strongest in South Cambridgeshire, is a specialisation across much of the region. 29 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

30 30 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

31 31 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

32 32 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

33 Specialised labour markets Just as GCGP LEP has priority sectors because of their strategic value to the region, different groups of occupations can also have a critical importance. For this analysis, GCGP LEP has stressed the importance of three groups of occupations: n Entry Level roles are important to ensure a wide spread of employment opportunity for people at all levels. Ensuring ease of passage into work is important not only to manage problems of NEET young people, but also as a shock absorber to changing industrial composition. Emsi s define Entry Level roles here as those jobs where apprenticeships are not widely used; where employees do not routinely cite experience as a requirement for competence; and where typical qualifications are at or below NVQ level 1 (Level 1) or NVQ level 2 (Level 2). n Graduate roles are important because of their link to the knowledge-intensive industries, and they are increasingly spreading across the economy. Emsi s graduate occupation classification uses the UK Skills and Employment Surveys following the method of Green and Henseke (2014), bringing together data on qualification requirements, skills use and training needs. n STEM roles are important to the knowledge-intensive industries important to GCGP but they cut across most of the priority sectors too. Particularly for GCGP with its life sciences, cleantech, agritech, advanced manufacturing and aerospace and defence concerns, STEM is important. Following recent research for GCGP by the STEM Foundation, we define STEM using two of the potential four categories: those which produce and STEM industries, rather than those who use and depend on STEM in their roles. Table 7 sets out job openings for each of these three categories between 2016 and 2022, across each of the cities and districts of the GCGP region. The distribution is important: around a third of Graduate job openings can be accounted for by Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire, and 43 per cent of STEM producing job openings. Yet these two areas account for just 13 per cent of Entry Level 1 roles and 18 per cent of Entry Level 2 job openings. By contrast, South Holland accounts for 2 per cent of STEM producing roles but 6 per cent of Entry Level 1 and Entry Level 2 openings. The chart on the following page highlights these differences through Location Quotient analysis. Only Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire have significant graduate employment compared with the national profile, and similarly for STEM supporting workers. STEM producing workers are a little more widely spread significant also in North Hertfordshire, Huntingdonshire and Uttlesford, while Level 1 employment is especially high profile in St Edmundsbury, but also significant in a number of other areas. 33 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

34 34 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

35 Area Graduate Level 1 Level 2 STEM Producing STEM Supporting Cambridge East Cambridgeshire Fenland Forest Heath Huntingdonshire King's Lynn and West Norfolk North Hertfordshire Peterborough Rutland South Cambridgeshire South Holland South Kesteven St Edmundsbury Uttlesford Total Table 7: Job openings by priority occupational group Data: Emsi Occupations 35 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

36 36 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

37 6 Targeting occupations for delivery The purpose of this analysis is to result in a set of priority occupations against which to develop skills plans for the GCGP region. Because of the findings of the research process about the variety and mix of the GCGP region, the target occupations is segmented according to high and low skill levels, and between the greater Cambridge area and the rest of the region. For each of these four segments, 10 occupations are identified and quantified to guide regional decision-making. To identify priority occupations, we average three standardised measures: n The average percentage of (1) job openings for that occupation as a share of all job openings , and (2) skills shortage vacancies as a share of all vacancies (from Employer Skills Survey 2015). n The occupation s job openings as a percentage of Entry Level, Graduate, and STEM Producing or Supporting job openings, as relevant to its requirement. The Level 1 and Graduate measures are counted at a 50 per cent discount to reflect their greater fluidity compared to Level 2 and STEM roles. n The total of the occupation s percentage shares of each priority sector workforce. So, if that occupation accounts for 1 per cent of three priority sectors, it rates as 3 per cent (therefore, all priority sectors are counted as equally important, regardless of their employment footprint). Scores are standardised and then an average is taken across them, and this is used to rank the list of possible occupations. Reflecting the clear differences in geography, we divide the analysis geographically (Cambridge and South Cambridgeshire, and then the rest of the region), and also educationally, with jobs typically requiring some higher education selected differently this avoids skills scarcity at high levels obscuring the volume of job openings at lower skill levels (see Table 8). Education Level GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2 Honours, Bachelor's degree; BTEC Level 6 A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3 GCSE at grades D-G; Level 1 NVQ; BTEC Introductory / Level 2 Masters; Level 5 NVQ; BTEC Level 7 Intermediate, DipHE, DipFE; Level 4 NVQ; BTEC Level 5 Openings % GCGP job openings 92, , , , , , Certificate; BTEC Level Table 8: Job openings by education level Data: Emsi Occupations 37 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

38 38 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

39 Broad area SOC Description Cambridge area, High-skill Cambridge area, Low skill 2136 Programmers and software development professionals 2112 Biological scientists and biochemists Openings Change Change % change % change Nurses Laboratory technicians Mechanical engineers IT specialist managers Quantity surveyors Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c Engineering professionals n.e.c IT business analysts, architects and systems designers IT operations technicians Gardeners and landscape gardeners Draughtspersons Large goods vehicle drivers Production managers and directors in construction 5119 Agricultural and fishing trades n.e.c Construction and building trades n.e.c Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

40 Broad area SOC Description Rest of region, High skill Rest of region, Low skill 3539 Business and related associate professionals n.e.c Financial and accounting technicians Openings Change Change % change % change Groundsmen and greenkeepers Programmers and software development professionals IT specialist managers Mechanical engineers Biological scientists and biochemists 2139 Information technology and telecommunications professionals n.e.c Nurses Quantity surveyors Engineering professionals n.e.c IT business analysts, architects and systems designers Graphic designers IT operations technicians Production managers and directors in construction 5113 Gardeners and landscape gardeners Large goods vehicle drivers Draughtspersons Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

41 Broad area SOC Description 5319 Construction and building trades n.e.c Openings Change Change % change % change Engineering technicians Financial and accounting technicians 8229 Mobile machine drivers and operatives n.e.c Groundsmen and greenkeepers Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

42 Broad area Cambridge Rest Education level Area Openings Change Competitive effect Share of openings at education level High Cambridge South Cambridgeshire Low Cambridge South Cambridgeshire High East Cambridgeshire Fenland Forest Heath Huntingdonshire King's Lynn and West Norfolk North Hertfordshire Peterborough Rutland South Holland South Kesteven St Edmundsbury Uttlesford Low East Cambridgeshire Fenland Forest Heath Huntingdonshire King's Lynn and West Norfolk North Hertfordshire Peterborough Rutland South Holland South Kesteven St Edmundsbury Uttlesford Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

43 Appendix A: Emsi s data Emsi s data offers an unrivalled resource of economic and labour market intelligence drawing on the quality of official sources but adding in advanced methods to allow for high levels of granularity in geography, industry and occupation. Projections are renewed annually, benchmarked to Working Futures, and evaluated to identify improvements. Sources and methods Emsi provides the most detailed and localised labour market intelligence available in the UK, which in turn creates a robust base upon which to create uniquely localised and detailed employment projections. Emsi brings together different data sources to create a robust composite dataset that provides detailed labour market intelligence on hundreds of industries and occupations at the lowest geographic levels. By joining together these datasets, Emsi can provide unique insights into the relationship between industry trends and associated occupational requirements. Emsi builds the data from 9 different government data sources, each describing different aspects of the labour market that in isolation only tell part of the story or contain inherent weaknesses, but when modelled together provide a more holistic and robust view of the labour market. This combination some 20 million data points added each year provides the platform for employment forecasts to be created that describe locally-specific employment trends, and which are updated annually as more up-to-date data is made available through the government sources. Emsi source datasets ONS Annual Business Inquiry ONS Annual Population Survey ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings ONS Business Register and Employment Survey DEFRA Statistics ONS Labour Force Survey UKCES Working Futures ONS Workforce Series Combining data from these sources creates something entirely unique, allowing gaps in individual sources to be filled in, providing employment forecasts at a level of detail that makes labour market data useful to a broad range of local, regional, and national organisations. Linking this with skills and competency intelligence helps to understand shifts in training priorities associated with a changing labour force. 43 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

44 Bringing data to life Emsi data together delivers not only depth in terms of local detail, industry detail, and occupational detail, but applications in a range of different directions (see table), with data on demographics, age, educational attainment, competency, earnings and staffing patterns. All data are reported in current (SIC 2007 / SOC 2010) classifications. Emsi data provides Demography n Age n Gender n Ethnicity Our data includes consistent series back to 2003 and projected forward to 2022 and are updated annually. We deploy them through tools such as Analyst to help economic strategists and FE and HE planners to investigate the current and projected labour market; Curriculum Planner to help FE curriculum developers understand the alignment of their provision to local labour market need; and Career Coach to present a micro view for young people considering different occupations in their future. We also have it available as a general resource which we can use as a tool in our consulting work. While we have the knowledge and capability to tackle any of the leading labour market intelligence sources such as those produced by the ONS and UKCES our own data s power lies not only in its granularity, but in its accessibility. Because of the work we do to process, prepare and validate our data, Emsi can answer complex labour market queries from our data in high volume and at high speed. Geography Industry Occupations n Government Office Region (11 areas) n County/Unitary Authority (128) n Local Authority District (385) (experimental) n 4-digit SIC (563 industries) n Staffing patterns n Projections to 2022 n Earnings n 4-digit SOC (369 occupations) n Staffing patterns n Projections to 2022 n Earnings n Educational attainment n O*NET competency profiles 44 Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016

45 Labour market projections Emsi s industry data are projected forward to 2022 from a bottomup level, with 4-digit SIC industries projected on the basis of an average of 3, 5 and 8-year time trends, and then rebased in aggregate to match the less frequent and less granular projections of UKCES Working Futures, to ensure alignment with that source as the official standard for labour market projections, while maintaining our much greater granularity. As with Working Futures, Emsi projections lean heavily on an extrapolation on the basis of past trends. The envelope for those projects is enhanced by accounting for the forecast trajectory for macroeconomic trends in terms of labour supply on the basis of educational and demographic trends and labour demand in terms of the path of the wider economy. But both the projections and the forecast are subject to substantial disruptions in practice. At the macro level, if the last decade has demonstrated anything, it is that large disruptions can and do happen. On the demand side, all labour market projections failed to predict the arrival and impact of the global financial crisis in On the supply side, the level of immigration has been a persistent shock unforeseen in workforce projections. At a more detailed level, places, industries and occupations will always change in unforeseen and qualitative ways. The impact of changing trade, technology and outsourcing can lead to steady economic growth at the macroeconomic level, but for individual industries and occupations it can lead to sharply varying, volatile changes. In the same way, local areas can be transformed by the opening or closure of new transport and communications infrastructure, the influx or departure of categories of worker, or significant new construction. Indeed, the categories we use for projection become less stable as we project over longer periods: job roles can be transformed and so can industry business models. Again, in aggregate these disruptions are less visible as they are balanced out but at local level or within specific industries and occupations, they can mark a decisive shift. For all of these reasons, all labour market projections need to be taken as a baseline to frame a discussion about future trends, not the last word and Emsi s projections are no different. What Emsi s projections add is that level of detail and regular refresh which some other sources lack. We also make sure in our projections to account for the differences in labour markets caused simply by national trends being felt at local level, and particular shifts created by local factors. Those working to educate or recruit talent in our economy need to be able to think seriously about the labour market in the years ahead. For all of the risks involved, projections are an invaluable tool for that thinking. At Emsi we are always seeking to evaluate how well our projections work out: a recent study 5 revealed that over a 5-year forecasting period the error between our forecast and the actual employment figure was less than 30% in 90% of occasions, which compares favourably to similar forecasting models Area Review Skills Conclusion November 2016