Influence of Decision Making during disasters and the impact on Community

Transcription

1 10 th International Conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Resilience and Reconstruction (I3R2) May 2014 Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA Influence of Decision Making during disasters and the impact on Community Jayantha Withanaarachchi, PhD Student, School of Civil, Environmental and Chemical Engineering, RMIT University Sujeeva Setunge, Professor, Discipline Head, Civil Engineering, RMIT University 1

2 Outline Research Methodology What do we know about Disasters Why the impact on Society is High Decision Making Risk & Resilience Case Study Case Study findings Summary 2

3 Research Methodology PhD Research Title: Protection of Transport Infrastructure and forward planning processes Gap Identification Identification of Strategic Planning Areas related to Transport Risk Matrix Formulation Strategic Planning Framework with Integrated Risk Evaluation Case Study Identifying gaps in Transport planning using Gap Analysis Identifying strategic land use planning areas to overcome gaps suing existing national and international codes of practice Transport Corridor Planning Road Design Land Use Development Approvals Risk Matrix formulation using identified factors and associated risks Decision Making Frame work using Triple Bottom Line Integrated Decision Making Framework

4 What do we know about Disasters? Disaster Types Disaster Frequency Importance is High Hydrological Floods, Glaciers, Icebergs, coastal erosion, and water logged areas Geological Earthquakes, erosion, volcanic activities, Risk soil and erosion, Vulnerability landslides is and High mud slides, avalanches Community Resilience Atmospheric Thunderstorms, hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons and tornadoes (created due to wind and rain intensities), Snow blizzards, dust storms and droughts (heat related), lighting strikes (create bushfires) Biological Epidemics, famine, plagues Technological Human influence Transport accidents, war, Percentage of people killed by disasters by region explosions and fires, toxic gases, building failures, (Source : Leoni et al, 2010) Page 28. failure of critical infrastructure, nuclear power station accidents, chemical spills, bridge collapses, rail crossing blockages, terrorist attacks, repair and replacement and maintenance works. 4

5 Why is the impact on Society so high? What influences the Impact? Population growth rate is High Cities expand to Mega Cities Metro? Cities in Vulnerable locations Urbanisation is High 5

6 Reason 1 - World Population World Population gone past 6 billion in 2000 Expected to be 9 billion in 2050 Urban population to increase by 3.1 billion between 2007 and 2025 Between 2000 & 2030, expected population growth is 1.8% 6

7 Reason 2 Urbanisation Issues Urbanised population increased from 270 million in 1990 to 3.3 billion in 2007 In 1900, 13% or 220 million people lived in urban areas In 1950, 29% or 732 million people lived in urban areas Demand for housing / services / health / employment / education / land increase Creation of slum dwellings In 2020, slum population to reach 1.4 billion people 7

8 Reason 3 Global Risks 8

9 Reason 4 - Critical Infrastructure (CI) CI AUSTRALIA GERMANY ITALY JAPAN NETHERLANDS USA Transport Communications Energy Banking & Finance Health Utilities Food Icons Emergency Services Defence Administration Industry Stock Markets Postal Services Manufacturing Nuclear Agriculture 9

10 How can we reduce these impacts What are the Key Main Areas that needs improving Decision Making is ONE Key Item 10

11 Decision Making - Under Ideal Conditions Decision Making Styles Decision Making Process Decision Making Responsibilities knowledge Main Decision about Making the situation Styles Characteristics be able Autocratic carry - out where a situational one responsible analysis decision analyse maker available makes resources all the relevant to carry decisions. out the whole process Decisiveness Consultative of decision and - flexibility Decision making making through implement Problem consultation Solving criteria and - leader decision shares making the issue skills with one manage Be able or more to team motivate people, capabilities stakeholders seeks input, and opinions, team building and be Information able suggestions to understand Management then system skills makes constraints a decision. available Planning Delegatory and time organising - delegating a decision, sets the required Strategic parameters, level Planning of collaboration allows one or more others to make access the to final available decision. technology access Democratic to experienced - Where staff everyone has an opportunity to input their views into decision making process. 11

12 Decision Making GOAL What is the GOAL in Decision Making What are the Challenges What needs to be improved How important is this to YOU and YOUR COUNTRY What is MORE IMPORTANT under this banner of I3R2? 12

13 Reality Check What is the reality of achieving this GOAL? What is the situation NOW What are the BARRIERS Time available to Quality of Why are those BARRIERS in Place make decisions information What resources are required Political influence Environmental factors How are others involved Experience of decision maker Theoretical & Practical Knowledge Community resilience status Affected areas Community resources Situational awareness Financial factors Organisational Culture Ethical factors Available resources Available Resources 13

14 Risk / Vulnerability Emergency Management in Australia is built on the four principles: prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR). ESCAP & UNISDR report (2010) states that overall disaster risk depends on three factors such as Hazard - The type and intensity of a hazard event Exposure - The number of people and the scale of assets exposed to the event Vulnerability - The capacity to cope with and recover from hazard events For example if the risk event is residential fatalities during an emergency, the vulnerabilities may be identified as: Lack of alternative routes, High congestion inadequacy of the road design for the particular land use Lack of provisions for emergency vehicle access Design errors of construction of dwellings Residential development in areas of high likelihood of threat 14

15 100 % Functional Capacity Resilience Vulnerability EVENT AREA A U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2008), stated that resilience is the ability of systems, infrastructure, government, business, and citizens to resist, absorb, and recover from or adapt to an adverse occurrence that may cause harm, destruction, or loss of national significance. Pitt (2010) stated that the ability of a system or organisation to withstand and recover from adversity as resilience. T = 0 T = Recovery Resilience can be quantified by Area A Source: Kimmance (2010) Resilience of a system is related to the definition of risk as follows: Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences Figure illustrates the definition of resilience (Kimmance, 2010) as area under the functional capacity versus time curve. Improving resilience can be achieved by a reduction in probability of the event, reduction of consequences due to the event and/or reducing the time required for system restoration. Henstra et al (2004) stated that hazard environment is dynamic and because decisions are made regularly that affect vulnerability, disaster resilience must be seen as an ongoing process and not just an ideal condition that can be achieved and forgotten. 15

16 Resilience of a system is related to the definition of risk: Community Resilience Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences Final Status of Resilience 16

17 How to Improve Community Resilience Be able to understand: the immediate threat and hazards that are threatening their community. the community structure, ages of people, where they live, what type of needs they require to avoid the hazard the available capabilities of each community member the available resources the geographical area, built environment and transport infrastructure the solutions to enhance the community resilience Community processes in place for action Community s ability to communicate required information to the community members Leadership Identify vulnerabilities Available Resources National / State / Private /Public & International contributions - $ / Material / Workforce 17

18 Case Study 1.Land Use Planning Permit Process Approved Planning Application submitted to Council Council checks and assesses the application Decision by the Council Refusal No action by the applicant Appeal to VCAT

19 Case Study 1 : Land Use Development and Planning Framework Developer buys land and applies for re-zoning of land for commercial development. Application is sent to Council Council Technical staff input Council checks the application and the technical reports Approves Application with or without conditions Decision by Council Council Technical staff input Development Proceeds Technical Reports TIA Environment Impact Report Economic Development Report + Resident Input + TIA Consultant Input Rejects Application VCAT Appeal by Developer TIA Consultant Input Decision by VCAT Rejects Application Policy Context Reports SPPF LPPF Traffic Strategy Economic Strategy Environmental Effects Report No Action by Developer 19

20 Issues identified in a Land Use Planning Process Information substandard Not knowing early enough Not always met Use of standard conditions deal with variances No consistency Pre-app process can work but not always used What s changed 4 years ago Quality of application not always good Communication Timeframes for response too long Conditions not always relevant Issue with statutory regime repetition of work Conditions too inflexible in some instances Methods used to define documents - cumbersome Staff turnover continuity of process CURRENT PLANNING ISSUES in Geelong Clarification around points of contact Application of set standards No easy search engine Dataworks accessing it Timelines more critical Developers need presales More difficult sites Confusion on larger sites re timelines What forums exist to deal with issues? Lots of frustration Do both Departments have a common goal? Need clarification on Traffic / Drainage Don t always know Developer timelines or our timelines Monthly meetings between Coordinators Do we need more?

21 Category Sustained Winds mph ( km/h) mph ( km/h) mph ( km/h) mph ( km/h) mph or higher(252 km/h or higher) Table 2: Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (Source: Figure 8. Hurricane Strikes ( ) (Source: 21

22 Case Study 2. Hurricane Katrina August 2005 Wind speeds Storm Surge Affected Area Debris > 232km/h 8.2 m 240,000 sq.km 118 million cubic yards Source: MEASURING HURRICANE KATRINA: THE PATH OF DESTRUCTION Impact Fatalities > 1300 Critical Infrastructure Failures Dangerous chemical sites 466 Hazardous waste sites 31 Superfund toxic waste sites 16 Dinking water facilities 170 Power / Phone customers 2.5 / 3 million Source:Disaster Decision Making: Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav in New Orleans,Adam V. Cartier Craig A. Laprade Michael V. Pierri David H. Worsham Submission Date: March 16, 2009, Economic losses Estimated construction costs $ 96 billion Source: MEASURING HURRICANE KATRINA: THE PATH OF DESTRUCTION Source: MEASURING HURRICANE KATRINA: THE PATH OF DESTRUCTION Source: Hurricane Katrina:A Nation Still Unprepared 22

23 Case Study 2. Katrina Transport Issues Lack of alternative routes High congestion Source : Bob Wolshot, Evacuation Planning and Engineering for Hurricane Katrina,The Bridge,SPRING Inadequacy of the road design for the particular land use Lack of provisions for emergency vehicle access Transport Planning Failures Source : A FAILURE OF INITIATIVE Emergency Management Planning Failures 23

24 Case Study 2. Social Impact Fatalities > 1300 Elderley Children Sick Animals CI System failures Electricity, Water, Telecommunication, Phone and Technology Planning Leadership, High Risk Area Developments, Emergency Management Strategies and Policies, Engineering Standards 24

25 Summary of Case Study 2 Hurricane Katrina Critical Challenges 1 National Preparedness 2 Integrated Use of Military Capabilities 3 Communications 4 Logistics and Evacuations 5 Search and Rescue 6 Public Safety and Security 7 Public Health and Medical Support 8 Human Services 9 Mass Care and Housing 10 Public Communications 11 Critical Infrastructure and Impact Assessment 12 Environmental Hazards and Debris Removal 13 Foreign Assistance 14 Non-Governmental Aid 15 Training, Exercises, and Lessons Learned 16 Homeland Security Professional Development and Education 17 Citizen and Community Preparedness 25

26 How a hazard impact on the Society, Environment, Economy and Critical infrastructure 26

27 DISASTER DECISION MAKING PROCESS INPUT Understand the types of hazards / understand the risk/ Understand the threat / Knowledge Management / Decision making Characteristics / Decision making Styles Responsibilities / Transport Planning / Logistics / Road Management / Information Analysis Communication / Shelter /Available Resources /Situational Awareness / Identify impact on Community / Identify impact on Economy / Identify impact on Environment / Community Preparedness / Services / Training Decision Maker OUTPUT Impact on Community / Impact on Economy / Impact on Environment Situational Awareness / Transport Network / Critical Infrastructure Road Safety / Resource Allocation / Search & Rescue Supply of Food, water and medicine / Communication 27

28 Gaps in Decision Making Leadership and Accountability Strategic Transport Planning Failure to understand the full scope of catastrophe Communication Gaps Land Use Development Approvals in high risk areas Evacuation Planning and Action Timing Disaster and Emergency Management Policies Disaster and Emergency Management Action Plans Protection of CI systems Traffic Management

29 What are the barriers to providing Safety for all? Decision Making Leadership Political Economic Strategic Planning Environmental Constraints Social Constraints Population increases and migration 29

30 Improving Community Resilience through Strategic decision making Leadership, Accountability Action by Responsible Authorities Strategic Planning Understand the full scope of Risk to the Community Gaps in Community Resilience Communication and Community Information Technology Use Disaster and Emergency Management Policies and Action Plans Critical Infrastructure Protection Strategies 30

31 Case studies showed the importance of DECISION MAKING and how it impacts on Society, Economy and Environment. Good Informed Decision Making can save lives / improve the status of a country Leadership and Accountability Strategic Planning Summary 31

32 Questions? Thank You Jayantha Withanaarchchi MIEAust CPEng 32