The Building Blocks of Neoclassical Analysis *

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1 OpenStax-CNX module: m The Building Blocks of Neoclassical Analysis * OpenStax This work is produced by OpenStax-CNX and licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 By the end of this section, you will be able to: Abstract Explain the importance of potential GDP in the long run Analyze the role of exible prices Interpret a neoclassical model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply Evaluate dierent ways for measuring the speed of macroeconomic adjustment The neoclassical perspective on macroeconomics holds that, in the long run, the economy will uctuate around its potential GDP and its natural rate of unemployment. This chapter begins with two building blocks of neoclassical economics: (1) the size of the economy is determined by potential GDP, and (2) wages and prices will adjust in a exible manner so that the economy will adjust back to its potential GDP level of output. The key policy implication is this: Should the government focus more on long-term growth and on controlling ination than on worrying about recession or cyclical unemployment? This focus on long-run growth rather than the short-run uctuations in the business cycle means that neoclassical economics is more useful for long-run macroeconomic analysis and Keynesian economics is more useful for analyzing the macroeconomic short run. Let's consider the two neoclassical building blocks in turn, and how they can be embodied in the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model. 1 The Importance of Potential GDP in the Long Run Over the long run, the level of potential GDP determines the size of real GDP. When economists refer to potential GDP they are referring to that level of output that can be achieved when all resources (land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurial ability) are fully employed. While the unemployment rate in labor markets will never be zero, full employment in the labor market refers to zero cyclical unemployment. There will still be some level of unemployment due to frictional or structural unemployment, but when the economy is operating with zero cyclical unemployment, the economy is said to be at the natural rate of unemployment or at full employment. Actual or real GDP is benchmarked against the potential GDP to determine how well the economy is performing. Growth in GDP can be explained by increases and investment in physical capital and human capital per person as well as advances in technology. Physical capital per person refers to the amount and kind of machinery and equipment available to help people get work done. Compare, for example, your productivity in typing a term paper on a typewriter to working on your laptop with word processing software. * Version 1.2: Aug 14, :52 pm

2 OpenStax-CNX module: m Clearly, you will be able to be more productive using word processing software. The technology and level of capital of your laptop and software has increased your productivity. More broadly, the development of GPS technology and Universal Product Codes (those barcodes on every product we buy) has made it much easier for rms to track shipments, tabulate inventories, and sell and distribute products. These two technological innovations, and many others, have increased a nation's ability to produce goods and services for a given population. Likewise, increasing human capital involves increasing levels of knowledge, education, and skill sets per person through vocational or higher education. Physical and human capital improvements with technological advances will increase overall productivity and, thus, GDP. To see how these improvements have increased productivity and output at the national level, we should examine evidence from the United States. The United States experienced signicant growth in the twentieth century due to phenomenal changes in infrastructure, equipment, and technological improvements in physical capital and human capital. The population more than tripled in the twentieth century, from 76 million in 1900 to over 300 million in The human capital of modern workers is far higher today because the education and skills of workers have risen dramatically. In 1900, only about one-eighth of the U.S. population had completed high school and just one person in 40 had completed a four-year college degree. By 2010, more than 87% of Americans had a high school degree and over 29% had a four-year college degree as well. In 2014, 40% of working-age Americans had a four-year college degree. The average amount of physical capital per worker has grown dramatically. The technology available to modern workers is extraordinarily better than a century ago: cars, airplanes, electrical machinery, smartphones, computers, chemical and biological advances, materials science, health carethe list of technological advances could run on and on. More workers, higher skill levels, larger amounts of physical capital per worker, and amazingly better technology, and potential GDP for the U.S. economy has clearly increased a great deal since This growth has fallen below its potential GDP and, at times, has exceeded its potential. For example from 2008 to 2009, the U.S. economy tumbled into recession and remains below its potential. At other times, like in the late 1990s, the economy ran at potential GDPor even slightly ahead. Figure 1 (Potential and Actual GDP (in Nominal Dollars)) shows the actual data for the increase in nominal GDP since The slightly smoother line shows the potential GDP since 1960 as estimated by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Oce. Most economic recessions and upswings are times when the economy is 13% below or above potential GDP in a given year. Clearly, short-run uctuations around potential GDP do exist, but over the long run, the upward trend of potential GDP determines the size of the economy.

3 OpenStax-CNX module: m Potential and Actual GDP (in Nominal Dollars) Figure 1: Actual GDP falls below potential GDP during and after recessions, like the recessions of 1980 and , , 2001, and and continues below potential GDP through In other cases, actual GDP can be above potential GDP for a time, as in the late 1990s. In the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model, potential GDP is shown as a vertical line. Neoclassical economists who focus on potential GDP as the primary determinant of real GDP argue that the long-run aggregate supply curve is located at potential GDPthat is, the long-run aggregate supply curve is a vertical line drawn at the level of potential GDP, as shown in Figure 2 (A Vertical AS Curve). A vertical LRAS curve means that the level of aggregate supply (or potential GDP) will determine the real GDP of the economy, regardless of the level of aggregate demand. Over time, increases in the quantity and quality of physical capital, increases in human capital, and technological advancements shift potential GDP and the vertical LRAS curve gradually to the right. This gradual increase in an economy's potential GDP is often described as a nation's long-term economic growth.

4 OpenStax-CNX module: m A Vertical AS Curve Figure 2: In the neoclassical model, the aggregate supply curve is drawn as a vertical line at the level of potential GDP. If AS is vertical, then it determines the level of real output, no matter where the aggregate demand curve is drawn. Over time, the LRAS curve shifts to the right as productivity increases and potential GDP expands. 2 The Role of Flexible Prices How does the macroeconomy adjust back to its level of potential GDP in the long run? What if aggregate demand increases or decreases? The neoclassical view of how the macroeconomy adjusts is based on the insight that even if wages and prices are sticky, or slow to change, in the short run, they are exible over time. To understand this better, let's follow the connections from the short-run to the long-run macroeconomic equilibrium. The aggregate demand and aggregate supply diagram shown in Figure 3 (The Rebound to Potential GDP after AD Increases) shows two aggregate supply curves. The original upward sloping aggregate supply curve (SRAS 0 ) is a short-run or Keynesian AS curve. The vertical aggregate supply curve (LRASn) is the long-run or neoclassical AS curve, which is located at potential GDP. The original aggregate demand curve, labeled AD 0, is drawn so that the original equilibrium occurs at point E 0, at which point the economy is producing at its potential GDP.

5 OpenStax-CNX module: m The Rebound to Potential GDP after AD Increases Figure 3: The original equilibrium (E 0), at an output level of 500 and a price level of 120, happens at the intersection of the aggregate demand curve (AD 0) and the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS 0). The output at E 0 is equal to potential GDP. Aggregate demand shifts right from AD 0 to AD 1. The new equilibrium is E 1, with a higher output level of 550 and an increase in the price level to 125. With unemployment rates unsustainably low, wages are bid up by eager employers, which shifts short-run aggregate supply to the left, from SRAS 0 to SRAS 1. The new equilibrium (E 2) is at the same original level of output, 500, but at a higher price level of 130. Thus, the long-run aggregate supply curve (LRASn), which is vertical at the level of potential GDP, determines the level of real GDP in this economy in the long run. Now, imagine that some economic event boosts aggregate demand: perhaps a surge of export sales or a rise in business condence that leads to more investment, perhaps a policy decision like higher government spending, or perhaps a tax cut that leads to additional aggregate demand. The short-run Keynesian analysis is that the rise in aggregate demand will shift the aggregate demand curve out to the right, from AD 0 to AD 1, leading to a new equilibrium at point E 1 with higher output, lower unemployment, and pressure for an inationary rise in the price level.

6 OpenStax-CNX module: m In the long-run neoclassical analysis, however, the chain of economic events is just beginning. As economic output rises above potential GDP, the level of unemployment falls. The economy is now above full employment and there is a shortage of labor. Eager employers are trying to bid workers away from other companies and to encourage their current workers to exert more eort and to put in longer hours. This high demand for labor will drive up wages. Most workers have their salaries reviewed only once or twice a year, and so it will take time before the higher wages lter through the economy. As wages do rise, it will mean a leftward shift in the short-run Keynesian aggregate supply curve back to SRAS 1, because the price of a major input to production has increased. The economy moves to a new equilibrium (E 2 ). The new equilibrium has the same level of real GDP as did the original equilibrium (E 0 ), but there has been an inationary increase in the price level. This description of the short-run shift from E 0 to E 1 and the long-run shift from E 1 to E 2 is a step-by-step way of making a simple point: the economy cannot sustain production above its potential GDP in the long run. An economy may produce above its level of potential GDP in the short run, under pressure from a surge in aggregate demand. Over the long run, however, that surge in aggregate demand ends up as an increase in the price level, not as a rise in output. The rebound of the economy back to potential GDP also works in response to a shift to the left in aggregate demand. Figure 4 (A Rebound Back to Potential GDP from a Shift to the Left in Aggregate Demand) again starts with two aggregate supply curves, with SRAS 0 showing the original upward sloping short-run Keynesian AS curve and LRASn showing the vertical long-run neoclassical aggregate supply curve. A decrease in aggregate demandfor example, because of a decline in consumer condence that leads to less consumption and more savingcauses the original aggregate demand curve AD 0 to shift back to AD 1. The shift from the original equilibrium (E 0 ) to the new equilibrium (E 1 ) results in a decline in output. The economy is now below full employment and there is a surplus of labor. As output falls below potential GDP, unemployment rises. While a lower price level (i.e., deation) is rare in the United States, it does happen from time to time during very weak periods of economic activity. For practical purposes, we might consider a lower price level in the ADAS model as indicative of disination, which is a decline in the rate of ination. Thus, the long-run aggregate supply curve LRASn, which is vertical at the level of potential GDP, ultimately determines the real GDP of this economy.

7 OpenStax-CNX module: m A Rebound Back to Potential GDP from a Shift to the Left in Aggregate Demand Figure 4: The original equilibrium (E 0), at an output level of 500 and a price level of 120, happens at the intersection of the aggregate demand curve (AD 0) and the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS 0). The output at E 0 is equal to potential GDP. Aggregate demand shifts left, from AD 0 to AD 1. The new equilibrium is at E 1, with a lower output level of 450 and downward pressure on the price level of 115. With high unemployment rates, wages are held down. Lower wages are an economy-wide decrease in the price of a key input, which shifts short-run aggregate supply to the right, from SRAS 0 to SRAS 1. The new equilibrium (E 2) is at the same original level of output, 500, but at a lower price level of 110. Again, from the neoclassical perspective, this short-run scenario is only the beginning of the chain of events. The higher level of unemployment means more workers looking for jobs. As a result, employers can hold down on pay increasesor perhaps even replace some of their higher-paid workers with unemployed people willing to accept a lower wage. As wages stagnate or fall, this decline in the price of a key input means that the short-run Keynesian aggregate supply curve shifts to the right from its original (SRAS 0 to SRAS 1 ). The overall impact in the long run, as the macroeconomic equilibrium shifts from E 0 to E 1 to E 2, is that the level of output returns to potential GDP, where it started. There is, however, downward pressure on the price level. Thus, in the neoclassical view, changes in aggregate demand can have a short-run impact on output and on unemploymentbut only a short-run impact. In the long run, when wages and prices are

8 OpenStax-CNX module: m exible, potential GDP and aggregate supply determine the size of real GDP. 3 How Fast Is the Speed of Macroeconomic Adjustment? How long does it take for wages and prices to adjust, and for the economy to rebound back to its potential GDP? This subject is highly contentious. Keynesian economists argue that if the adjustment from recession to potential GDP takes a very long time, then neoclassical theory may be more hypothetical than practical. In response to those immortal words of John Maynard Keynes, In the long run we are all dead, neoclassical economists respond that even if the adjustment takes as long as, say, ten years the neoclassical perspective remains of central importance in understanding the economy. One subset of neoclassical economists holds that the adjustment of wages and prices in the macroeconomy might be quite rapid indeed. The theory of rational expectations holds that people form the most accurate possible expectations about the future that they can, using all information available to them. In an economy where most people have rational expectations, economic adjustments may happen very quickly. To understand how rational expectations may aect the speed of price adjustments, think about a situation in the real estate market. Imagine that several events seem likely to push up the value of homes in the neighborhood. Perhaps a local employer announces that it is going to hire many more people or the city announces that it is going to build a local park or a library in that neighborhood. The theory of rational expectations points out that even though none of the changes will happen immediately, home prices in the neighborhood will rise immediately, because the expectation that homes will be worth more in the future will lead buyers to be willing to pay more in the present. The amount of the immediate increase in home prices will depend on how likely it seems that the announcements about the future will actually happen and on how distant the local jobs and neighborhood improvements are in the future. The key point is that, because of rational expectations, prices do not wait on events, but adjust immediately. At a macroeconomic level, the theory of rational expectations points out that if the aggregate supply curve is vertical over time, then people should rationally expect this pattern. When a shift in aggregate demand occurs, people and businesses with rational expectations will know that its impact on output and employment will be temporary, while its impact on the price level will be permanent. If rms and workers perceive the outcome of the process in advance, and if all rms and workers know that everyone else is perceiving the process in the same way, then they have no incentive to go through an extended series of short-run scenarios, like a rm rst hiring more people when aggregate demand shifts out and then ring those same people when aggregate supply shifts back. Instead, everyone will recognize where this process is headingtoward a change in the price leveland then will act on that expectation. In this scenario, the expected long-run change in the price level may happen very quickly, without a drawn-out zigzag of output and employment rst moving one way and then the other. The theory that people and rms have rational expectations can be a useful simplication, but as a statement about how people and businesses actually behave, the assumption seems too strong. After all, many people and rms are not especially well informed, either about what is happening in the economy or about how the economy works. An alternate assumption is that people and rms act with adaptive expectations: they look at past experience and gradually adapt their beliefs and behavior as circumstances change, but are not perfect synthesizers of information and accurate predictors of the future in the sense of rational expectations theory. If most people and businesses have some form of adaptive expectations, then the adjustment from the short run and long run will be traced out in incremental steps that occur over time. The empirical evidence on the speed of macroeconomic adjustment of prices and wages is not clear-cut. Indeed, the speed of macroeconomic adjustment probably varies among dierent countries and time periods. A reasonable guess is that the initial short-run eect of a shift in aggregate demand might last two to ve years, before the adjustments in wages and prices cause the economy to adjust back to potential GDP. Thus, one might think of the short run for applying Keynesian analysis as time periods less than two to ve years, and the long run for applying neoclassical analysis as longer than ve years. For practical purposes, this guideline is frustratingly imprecise, but when analyzing a complex social mechanism like an economy as it evolves over time, some imprecision seems unavoidable.

9 OpenStax-CNX module: m Key Concepts and Summary Neoclassical perspective argues that, in the long run, the economy will adjust back to its potential GDP level of output through exible price levels. Thus, the neoclassical perspective views the long-run AS curve as vertical. A rational expectations perspective argues that people have excellent information about economic events and how the economy works and that, as a result, price and other economic adjustments will happen very quickly. In adaptive expectations theory, people have limited information about economic information and how the economy works, and so price and other economic adjustments can be slow. 5 Self-Check Question Exercise 1 (Solution on p. 11.) Do rational expectations tend to look back at past experience while adaptive expectations look ahead to the future? Explain your answer. 6 Review Questions Exercise 2 Does neoclassical economics focus on the long term or the short term? Explain your answer. Exercise 3 Does neoclassical economics view prices and wages as sticky or exible? Why? Exercise 4 What shape is the long-run aggregate supply curve? Why does it have this shape? Exercise 5 What is the dierence between rational expectations and adaptive expectations? Exercise 6 A neoclassical economist and a Keynesian economist are studying the economy of Vineland. It appears that Vineland is beginning to experience a mild recession with a decrease in aggregate demand. Which of these two economists would likely advocate that the government of Vineland take active measures to reverse this decline in aggregate demand? Why? 7 Critical Thinking Questions Exercise 7 If most people have rational expectations, how long will recessions last? Exercise 8 Explain why the neoclassical economists believe that nothing much needs to be done about unemployment. Do you agree or disagree? Explain. 8 Problems Exercise 9 Use Table 1 to answer the following questions.

10 OpenStax-CNX module: m Price Level Aggregate Supply Aggregate Demand 90 3,000 3, ,000 3, ,000 2, ,000 2, ,000 2,100 Table 1 a. Sketch an aggregate supply and aggregate demand diagram. b. What is the equilibrium output and price level? c. If aggregate demand shifts right, what is equilibrium output? d. If aggregate demand shifts left, what is equilibrium output? e. In this scenario, would you suggest using aggregate demand to alter the level of output or to control any inationary increases in the price level? 9 References Lumina Foundation "A Stronger Nation Through Higher Education." Accessed March 4, The National Bureau of Economic Research. U.S. Department of Commerce: United States Census Bureau. The 2012 Statistical Abstract. U.S. Department of the Treasury. TARP Programs. Last modied December 12, stability/tarp-programs/pages/default.aspx. United States Government. Recovery.gov: Track the Money. Last modied October 30,

11 OpenStax-CNX module: m Solutions to Exercises in this Module Solution to Exercise (p. 9) No, this statement is false. It would be more accurate to say that rational expectations seek to predict the future as accurately as possible, using all of past experience as a guide. Adaptive expectations are largely backward looking; that is, they adapt as experience accumulates, but without attempting to look forward. Glossary Denition 4: adaptive expectations the theory that people look at past experience and gradually adapt their beliefs and behavior as circumstances change Denition 4: neoclassical perspective the philosophy that, in the long run, the business cycle will uctuate around the potential, or full-employment, level of output Denition 4: physical capital per person the amount and kind of machinery and equipment available to help a person produce a good or service Denition 4: rational expectations the theory that people form the most accurate possible expectations about the future that they can, using all information available to them