Non-transmission Alternatives Process. The Vermont Experience. Hantz A. Présumé Principal Engineer System Planning

Transcription

1 Non-transmission Alternatives Process The Vermont Experience Hantz A. Présumé Principal Engineer System Planning July 30, 2015

2 Overview of Vermont Small, rural state, ~625K pop. 17 distribution utilities 1 investor-owned 2 cooperatives 14 municipals VELCO is the statewide transmission-only entity owned by the distribution utilities (73%) and a public benefit corporation (27%) VLITE The VT distribution utilities own generation while the rest of New England has divested 2 2

3 The Vermont Transmission Grid 738 miles of transmission 55 substations and switching stations Ties to NY, MA, NH, and Canada 225 MW HVDC Converter to Canada 1 STATCOM, 4 Phase Shifting Transformers & 4 Synchronous Condensers Vermont is dual peaking Summer and Winter peak loads vary between 1000 MW and 1050 MW The Vermont load is roughly 4% of the region s load Minimal generation and no true base load units 3 3

4 ISO-NE is the Planning Authority for New England The FERC authorized ISO-NE to perform three critical roles Operate the power system, administer the markets, and conduct power system planning for the region ISO-NE publishes an annual regional system plan Includes a description of proposed regulated transmission solutions Provides sufficient information to allow Market Participants to propose a market response to identified system needs ISO-NE NTA studies do not evaluate NTA solution costs nor feasibility, simply location and amount Transmission solutions designated as regional benefit upgrades are funded regionally Market response solutions are funded by the sponsor 4 4

5 Vermont planning policy Favors least-cost solution (wires or non-wires), and requires collaborative planning & stakeholder engagement Legislation (30 V.S.A. 218c) Required a 10-year transmission plan at least every three years beginning July 1, 2006, including public outreach process Goal: Identify potential need for transmission system improvements as early as possible, in order to allow sufficient time to plan and implement more costeffective nontransmission alternatives to meet reliability needs, wherever feasible. PSB Docket 7081 established stakeholder process through negotiated settlement Created Vermont System Planning Committee (VSPC) statewide reliability planning stakeholder body Requires 20-year long-range transmission plan Goal: Full, fair and timely consideration of cost-effective non-transmission alternatives 5 5

6 Provided geo-targeting guidance to stakeholders in Plan included map roughly depicting relative benefit to transmission grid of new generation or load reductions by location Color coding very rough, drawn by hand Zones of benefit based on ISO-NE VT/NH NTA analysis Benefits much more precisely analyzed in context of full NTA studies 6 6

7 Vermont NTA analysis process Step 1: Screening All projects are screened during the Long-Range Plan development using adopted NTA screening tool to determine whether the problem can be addressed by an NTA in practical terms there is enough time to implement the NTA the scale of the NTA would not be too large the potential savings is worth conducting a more detailed analysis 7 7 Step 2: Full NTA analysis if screened in More detailed analysis evaluating feasibility and relative costs of NTA resources. Design the NTA to meet the performance requirements at the lowest cost Summer vs winter, on standby or running, short or long duration, etc. See screening tools at:

8 Study tools VELCO planning engineers utilize power flow software (PSSE, PSLF) to translate typical study results (% overloads and voltage violations) into data inputs to an NTA study Consultant or the NTA study group utilizes proprietary software or Excel workbook tool to evaluate the net cost of alternative resource configurations (ARC) Several ARCs can be developed in an attempt to create cost profiles that are better than individual resources May include hybrid ARCs combining transmission and NTA solutions ISO-NE planning engineers utilize PSSE to test the effectiveness of proposed market responses 8 8

9 The steps of a full NTA analysis VELCO provides information that would be useful to an NTA sponsor Amount and location of the reliability gap Timing of the need and longevity requirement based on the growth rate of the reliability gap Availability requirement and expected run time Whether the reliability concern exists under normal conditions or emergency conditions A description of the potential duration and frequency of these conditions NTA analysis is performed by a study group Collaborative process including affected DUs, possibly an NTA consultant, and any interested member of the VSPC, e.g. Public Service Department, Energy Efficiency utility, and generation developers Study group seeks input from known energy stakeholders at various stages of the analysis Result is NTA is cost-effective and feasible, or not If no, transmission is pursued If yes, the NTA solution is proposed to ISO-NE for consideration 9 9

10 Conditions for ISO-NE consideration of market responses Market responses need to have been proposed with some form of obligation that they will perform Have cleared the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) Have been selected in, and are contractually bound by, a state-sponsored RFP, or Have a financially binding obligation pursuant to a contract Only then will ISO-NE incorporate and update information regarding resources modeled in a subsequent Needs Assessment Resources are funded by the sponsor/developer 1010

11 An example of how the process works Vermont Late 2011: ISO-NE publishes preliminary study showing system concerns in Central VT Late 2011: DUs & VELCO form study group per VT formal nontransmission alternatives (NTA) process to resolve April 2012: ISO-NE Solutions Study proposes transmission upgrades to resolve Central VT concerns At this point, without VT NTA study requirement, a transmission solution would likely have been implemented Regional Nov 2012: GMP & VELCO present study group results to ISO-NE showing potential for a minor NTA supplemented by existing state energy efficiency and distributed generation programs to postpone Central VT upgrades Early 2013: ISO-NE reassesses need for Central VT upgrades Summer 2013: ISO-NE study confirms $157 million Central VT upgrade deferral based on a lower load forecast and resources from the FCM 1111

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13 When EE and expected PV resources applied to gap, transmission upgrade no longer needed (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) Coincident MW C-CR Effective MW C-CR Margin CR-NR Margin (50.0) The remaining gap from 2012 to 2019 could be met by temporary and declining demand response programs 1313

14 Observations about VT example & process EE plays a big role but fills the gap in combination with other resources, which are growing rapidly Integrated look at DG & EE is critical: no one element caused the result Project need is based on forecast, which has many assumptions; could change rapidly in volatile times; regular reassessment needed Benefits of a robust stakeholder process: Regulatory certainty Stakeholder buy-in A little more certainty of the need Biggest policy issue: Networked transmission is funded regionally, but NTAs or market responses are funded by the project sponsor 1414