Swedish Transport Administration (STA) Peter Simonsson. LCC work at STA

Transcription

1 Swedish Transport Administration (STA) Peter Simonsson LCC work at STA

2 Agenda LCC work within STA LCC at the Department of Investment Why is LCC important? What STA would like to achieve How we are working with LCC Example Our bridge model

3 Introduction q q q Aim LCC: Facilitate the decision making process by relevant and objective information adapted to suit each stage Balance between investment and maintenance costs and identification and control of potential cost drivers Consider operation and maintenance costs in an earlier stage in the planning and design process Fundamental idea: Obtain the most cost-effective alternative for society in each specific case

4 STAs intention with LCC A form in the investment stage to: Illustrate consequences in the operation phase Lower total costs for society and STA LCC primarily implies more wise choices when choosing between alternative solutions: Preferably calculate prized costs and effects, but Quantitative estimations are OK

5 What would STA like to achieve? Create an arena for sharing experience and feedback (e.g. documents, meetings, databases ): Between trades consultants, contractors, suppliers, STA Cross functions and technical areas Between different stages and between projects Sharing information about requirements, solutions, consequences etc. avoiding making the same mistake twice. Obtain a fact based decision basis: Data and written knowledge complement individual experience. Unbiased and objective. Different decisions require different basis. Planning Designing Constructing O&M

6 Our decisions how can LCC support? Step by step Overall thinking on investment decisions o Costs for O&M long term assessment o Consequences o Focus LCC through projects 3. LCC calculations on systems. 2. LCC calculations on components. 1. Motivated LCC estimations. 0. Think operation stage!!!? Decision

7 LCC s Achilles heal The many obstacles Obvious to focus on total costs! Or is it? Some of the most common objections; We know nothing about the future! Input is missing! (Costs, life span, interest rate, maintenance needs, quantified effects on ) Which effects should be taken into account? Travel time, emissions, accidents? Missing values. How handle uncertainties, variations and risks? Connection to societal costs and design guides? Laws, rules, regulations, processes... Allowing higher or lower costs for a project considering LCC? Who determines the rules for LCC? Possible to legally evaluate bids from LCC?

8 When is it suitable to use LCC? Unique projects At least two alternatives When costs in O&M differ due to design choices Different functions need to cooperate in a decision Investment in infrastructure, long term, mistakes might be expensive in the future

9 Motivated long term decisions Input about future costs Estimations of future action needs and consequences Estimations of effects Planning Designing Constructing O&M How do we avoid expensive solutions? O&M Inv O&M Inv O&M Inv

10 SPI9 Life cycle different perspectives on time Infrastructure is developed continuously Sections are added or deleted. Systems updated. Components and material differ in service length? Google

11 Bild 10 SPI9 Behöver lite stödtext här! Simonsson Peter, IVtn;

12 Four identified levels Level 1: Socioeconomic assessment Level 2: System design Level 3: Subsystem design Level 4: Component design

13 LCC Systematic work What do we know? Project conditions What would we like to know? Decisions Input Collective knowledge Cost values O&M Models Systems (N1-2) Subsystems (N3) Components (N4) Output

14 Interpretation and using results Within STA, LCC should be used for motivating decisions of technical nature and motivating requirements LCC can also give: A pointer about important decisions to be able to lower the total costs Possibility to quantify risks that can give higher total costs Basis of instructions for future work An assessment for a whole project

15 Our work Specialists work group Raise the awareness within their technical specialties Our seminar Inform about the purpose of LCC When is it relevant? Creates increased value? How to use the results from LCC How to formulate requirements in UB Support consultants Assess LCC calculations/evaluations

16 The Swedish Bridge and Tunnel Management System "BaTMan"

17 The Model we use Three different steps

18 The model we use

19 Part 1: Optimum road corridor

20 Decide specific bridge type

21 Part 2: Chose bridge type

22 Repair or replace?

23 Part 3: Repair or replace? [ ] Bro över Lillån Byggår: 1934 [ ] Bro över Täbyån, Byggår:

24 Strategies Formulation Strategy A: Immediately repair the bridge Strategy B: Utilize the bridge for its residual service life without action and then renew it Sensitivity analysis: 1. Discount rate 2. The INV cost of a new bridge 3. Residual service life extension after repair 4. Residual service life without action 5. Actual service life of a new bridge 6. Long- and short-term planning of the repair 7. User cost inclusion

25 Questions?

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27 The climate calculation model Klimatkalkyl A model that enables us to efficiently and consistently calculate life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from transport infrastructure Easy to use no expert competence and no data inventory is needed (builds on already existing data) A unique design, can be used in both early planning and in later stages Planning Design Construction Maintenance/ operation Reinvestments/ demolition

28 The climate calculations Focus on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from road and railway constructions Applies a life cycle perspective (ISO 14040:2006 and EN 15804) Raw material extraction Processing Construction Operation and maintenance Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are calculated based on Use of resources (default or project specific) Emission factors/lca data describing the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from raw material extraction, transport, processing and use (default or product specific) Resource use Emission factors Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

29 Implementation in the planning process The climate calculation follows the object or measure from early planning to finalised construction The precision is continously increased as more information about the specific project is available (going from default values to project specific values) Project-specific input data Result for object or measure Standard measures Components Material and energy resources Emission factors for material and energy resources

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31 The Swedish Bridge Stock 2011 Bridge Function Type Total No. Of Bridge Total Bridge Total Pedestrian & Roadway Railway Other Bridges Area (m 2 ) Length (m) Bicycle BaTMan's Bridges 23,848 4,411 1, ,129 7,644, ,381 Trafikverket's Bridges in BaTMan 20,050 3, ,450 5,858, ,905 L< 5m 28% 19% 7% 8% 8% 2,56% 3,76% 1,02% 26% 5m L < 10m 10m L < 20m 20m L < 30m 30m L < 50m 50m L < 100m 100m L < 200m 200m L < 500m 500m L < 1000m 1000m L

32 Todays work LCC Implementing the model into BaTMan Cost database (external) Understanding our Infrastructure Following up constructed bridges, what's there medical status, and why? E4 Uppsala Mehedeby ( ) E6 North of Gothenburg (early 1990) LCA Calculating standard examples for bridges

33 Implementation Tender templates for design assignments KRII1 What do we write in the templates? LCC: Motivation for decisions Gives a hint on important decisions and involved risks Analysis on alternative solutions for added value e.g. low O&M or improved conformation (design) What to add in the future Qualified assessment of consequences for alternatives over time Description of the analysis, method and accuracy, assumptions, parameters and results (UB-mall)

34 Bild 32 KRII1 Tender templates for design assignments? Karlsson Robert Ingemar, IVtsö3;

35 When should LCC be performed? LCC calculations should be performed for all possible technical solutions Text from our Assignment Description Template (UB-mall) Om minst ett av följande gäller görs livscykelkostnadsutredning: Projekt där alternativa lösningar finns som kan spara pengar i byggnads- och driftskedena som väl motsvarar kostnaderna för att utföra LCC. Projekt där avsteg från regelverk eller praxis övervägs som kan medföra konsekvenser över anläggningens livscykel. Tillräcklig erfarenhet saknas av ett enskilt krav eller om en objekts- eller situationsanpassning behövs, t.ex. konsekvenser av krav på funktion, kontraktstidens längd eller krav på restvärde (framtida underhållsbehov). Projekt över 50 MSEK. LCC bör ej ingå i projekt eller delar av projekt där alternativa lösningar saknas såsom vid t.ex. spårbyten där räl tillhandahålls. LCC kan utföras på hela projektet men bör avgränsas till specifikt utpekade teknikområden eller tekniska lösningar

36 Report of LCC inquiry Introduction (describe purpose and system) Method (describe analysis) Inventory (mapping all relevant aspects) Quantitative LCC if possible Assessment of consequences and conclusions to draw

37 Problems and Possibilities Lack of knowledge, indata och modeller avseende kostnader och åtgärdsbehov [LCC ger incitament] STAs organisation roles and responsibility [How to solve? LCC gives facts] Closed loop regarding information/experience. Planning à Investment à O&M [implicit experience à explicit knowledge] Calculations give one result and a lack of money another [political question] LCC suggests scares improvement on low traffic roads [availability hard to evaluate + politics] Bearing/supporting construction parts constructed with technical life spans >> economical lifespans at the construction [calculation rules must be developed]

38 RAMS Method for analyzing an constructions consequences for reliability, operability, performance, maintenance, security etc. Inventory of critical events and their connection to construction parts are vital. Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety Sustainability Security

39 Introduction Initial Investment Cost User Cost Bridge Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) Operation and Maintenance Cost Major Repair Cost Inspection Cost User Cost Major Repair Cost User Cost Periodically Repair Cost User Cost Disposal Cost Inauguration Day End of life (60-120) years The time value of money, discount rate Life-Cycle Costing/Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) The concept of the lowest proposal & the concept of least LCC proposal