Tools for assessments of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Transcription

1 Module II. Concepts, frameworks, methodologies and tools for vulnerability and adaptation assessments Tools for assessments of vulnerability and adaptation strategies Boubacar Fall (ENDA, Dakar, Senegal) In collaboration with:

2 Introduction Many tools exist to assist in the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation To select appropriate tools: Clearly define the nature of vulnerability, as well as the framework and methodology to be used; and Keep in mind the practical elements of the assessment: context, time, resources available, target audience, use of results, etc.

3 Introduction (con t) Some tools are specific to vulnerability assessments Some tools are specific to adaptation assessments Some tools can be used for both Vulnerability and adaptation assessments can be done at different levels There are appropriate tools for each level

4 Examples of V&A assessment tools for the individual or community level Brainstorming Oral histories Vulnerability Adaptation Role playing Focus groups Cognitive mapping

5 Oral histories Qualitative histories of individual actors: Information is obtained through interviews Interview summaries can assist in outlining the past vulnerability of a multitude of actors Can be used for ecological restoration Useful for planning, decision-making and project design Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge

6 Focus Groups Discussions amongst a group of stakeholders Goal: To obtain advice from different stakeholders on a certain subject Groups should be homogenous taking in account the cultural factors (5 to 10 participants) Choose: A facilitator A rapporteur (or tape the discussion) Duration of discussion: 1-2 hours Current decision-making, project design, planning Multi-disciplinary team with general knowledge

7 Brainstorming Goal: Collect all common ideas and thoughts on a given subject Choose a clear and understandable subject Assemble the group around a table with a large sheet of paper at the center so that each person can add his or her ideas Or use a facilitator to write down all of the ideas generated by the group No more than 10 people per group Group similar ideas together and highlight those ideas to follow-up on Use the most original ideas

8 Role playing A participatory game that stimulates discussion, paves the way for improved communication, and supports collaboration Not constrained by literacy or instruction barriers that may otherwise exist To begin the role play, one must describe the situation/problem to be discussed and assign a different role to each participant Allow each participant to express his or her observations and to suggest solutions

9 Cognitive Mapping Allows for the measurement of mental representations Assists in structuring complex or unorganized data Useful when perceptions of a problem differ, the problem is poorly defined or when a common framework is desired To construct a cognitive map: State what the problem is Brainstorm all associated assumptions and solutions Group the concepts that emerge Re-illustrate the concepts so they form a conceptual model Consult participants to ensure that they are satisfied with the model that has been created; if not, revise the model Produce a formal model

10 Cognitive Map of Food Systems Starvation Deprivation leads to and Famine Predicted by Malthus 1819 Such as in Eastern Europe India Africa Can be limited by Climate Politics Economics and Distribution FOOD Can be increased by Used by humans as Contains Requiring more Population Growth and Required Protein Human Health for and Survival Includes Essential Amino Acids Made by Animals Grains Legumes Agricultural Practices Eaten Such as Such as by Plants Possess Pesticides Atmospheric N 2 Genetics & Breeding Haber Process NH 3 Herbicides Irrigation Fertilizer Which significantly supplements naturally Used for Required for growth of Fixed Nitrogen Symbiotic Bacteria That produce Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

11 Examples of V&A assessment tools for the municipal or institutional level Livelihood indicators Institutional analysis Vulnerability indicators Vulnerability Adaptation GIS Decision tree

12 Livelihood indicators Assess the impacts of climate change on different aspects of the livelihoods Begin by analyzing the dominant livelihoods in the case study region Identify the different threats for these livelihoods and develop a sensitivity matrix that reflects the interactions between these livelihoods (rows) and the risks (columns) identified Assign a numeric score to each cell of the matrix In the case of a rapid participatory exercise, use a qualitative scale: high, medium or low Calculate the total per row and per column The highest column scores indicate which climate hazards have the greatest impact The highest row scores indicate which livelihoods are most affected

13 Livelihoods sensitivity matrix

14 GIS (Geographic Information Systems) Software that organizes geographical and numeric data and allows one to manage the information produced GIS can serve many functions: - Data collection (geographic, geo-spatial) - Information management and storage - Analytical functions - Transformation of data into maps, tables, graphs or figures - Support to the decision-making process for planning, land-use or natural resources management, and transport issues

15 Vulnerability Indicators Measures the degree of vulnerability Guides the decision-making process by prioritizing which interventions are needed An indicator must reflect the actual situation to be reliable It is difficult to compare different indicators Step one: Select indicators based on the situation eg. Food security has economic, demographic and political dimensions, so indicators that reflect this include: GDP/capita, infant mortality rate, or literacy rates amongst women Step two: Assign weights to indicators according to their importance

16 Vulnerability Indicators Natural Natural Natural Financial Human Social Physical Land Livestock Cash crops Off-farm employment Skilled labour Community organizations Roads Smallholders Emerging farmers Agropastoralists Markettraders

17 Spider diagram Source: UNFCCC/LEG, 2004

18 Institutional Analysis Mapping the different stakeholders and their interactions (rules, norms, organizations) Institutional changes (through social, cultural or other changes) can play a more important role in V&A than do climate variability and/or change Institutional change can be extremely variable and unpredictable, and can limit and/or facilitate adaptation Helps in determining who is vulnerable and why, as well as why some response measures might be more appropriate than others

19 Decision Tree Chart of the relationships between different decision paths A decision tree assists in the visualization of the possible implications of one decision Useful for adaptation planning To construct a decision tree: Structure the problem (and possible outcomes) as a tree Assign probabilities to each of the potential events of the tree Calculate the total for each different decision path Decide on which action to take

20 Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

21 Examples of V&A assessment tools for the national or regional level Vulnerability profiles Multi-criteria analysis Vulnerability Adaptation Expert judgment Syndromes Scenario analysis

22 Vulnerability Profiles Representation of different vulnerability indicators for a group Helps to identify patterns of exposure, sensitivity and resilience among regions, social groups, etc. Indicators that could be included in a profile, include: Percentage of population below the poverty line; illiteracy rate; access to health care or land; exposure to climate Socio-economic factors: population growth; the spread of HIV/AIDS; population migration; market price fluctuations Construct a matrix of the different groups and their scores for the selected indicators Use radial diagrams to illustrate differences in a graphical manner

23 Vulnerability profile based on six factors related to the food security of rural smallholders Drought-food se curity Climate Demography Water & Land Socio-institutional Health Economy Source: Downing and Ziervogel, 2004

24 Syndromes The syndromes approach aims to assess and monitor a number of coupled processes taking place on different (spatial and temporal) scales Goal: To determine the level(s) of intervention to achieve the most sustainable development pathways 16 syndromes* have been identified and are classified into one of three groups: Utilization syndromes (7): e.g. Over-cultivation of marginal land, combined with rural poverty (Sahel Syndrome) e.g. Destruction of nature by tourism (Mass Tourism Syndrome) Development syndromes (6): e.g. Destruction of landscapes through planned expansion of cities and infrastructure (Urban Sprawl Syndrome) e.g. Disregard for environmental standards in the course of rapid economic growth (Asian Tigers Syndrome) Sink Syndromes (3): e.g. Threats to the environment through disposal of waste (Waste Dumping Syndrome) e.g. Environmental degradation through large-scale diffusion of long-lived substances (Smokestack Syndrome) * German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

25 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) Allows for the comparison of adaptation options using monetary and non-monetary values Facilitates the decision-making process Various steps of a MCA are: - Identify the decision-making context - Identify possible adaptation options - Select criteria to evaluate the options - Score the adaptation options using the criteria selected - Standardize the scores - Assign weights to the criteria according to their importance - Recalculate the scores and rank the options - Analyze the results - Determine the sensitivity of the results

26 Expert judgment A quick method to obtain information on one or more options Assessment of specific options by specialists: Conduct a preliminary analysis of the decision-making context in which adaptation options will be selected Provide this information to the experts via or a letter requesting their opinions Do not contact experts before the initial assessment has been done After analyzing the responses of the experts, produce a detailed report of the problem and rank the response options by priority order

27 Scenario Analysis Projections of the future based on either optimistic or pessimistic assumptions of future development Allows one to project the potential impacts of adaptation strategies Generally developed by small teams of experts representing a wide variety of sectors Two approaches dominate scenario development: Global level: Top-down approach Local level: Bottom-up approach