Maputo May 29-30, Africa Rising Building to the Future

Transcription

1 Wednesday, May 28 Registration opens Conference Agenda 6:30-8:30 pm Reception Hosted by the IMF Managing Director Thursday, May 29 (Conference Center) 8:30-8:40 8:40-8:55 8:55-9:10 Opening Introduction and welcome by: Manuel Chang (Minister of Finance, Mozambique) Opening speeches by: Armando Guebuza (President, Mozambique) Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, IMF) 9:10-9:25 Keynote Speech 10:00-12:00 Plenary session I: Opportunities and Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa Much of SSA has proven to be extraordinarily resilient to the global financial crisis. Growth slowed to 3.6 percent in 2009, but quickly recovered to over 5.5 percent in the subsequent years. For low- and middle income countries, the key challenge in reducing poverty is to maintain high growth going forward, while boosting job creation and accelerating structural transformation in the context of pervasive informality and the predominantly rural nature of poverty. But for others, notably the fragile states, the first priority remains to establish sufficient political and economic stability to join the ranks of the African Lions. At the same time, all of Sub-Saharan Africa is facing significant long-term challenges, including those stemming from climate change and demographic developments. The participants will be guided by the following questions: 1. How can Africa best seize the opportunities from natural resource wealth and what are the respective roles of the public and private sectors in harnessing this wealth for the benefit of all? 2. What are the main long-term global trends affecting African countries and what can policy makers do to address them? 3. How can Africa best address two key short-term challenges: accelerating diversification and structural transformation, and boosting job creation and inclusive growth? 12:30-2:00 pm Lunch --- Key Note Speech The afternoon sessions will look at specific challenges facing African economies. To discuss these issues, four panel sessions will cover four inter-connected themes. 1

2 2:30-3:45 pm Parallel Panel Session 1: Harnessing Africa s Natural Resources for the Benefit of Current and Future Generations In many sub-saharan Africa (SSA) countries, extractive industries oil, forestry, mining account for a significant share of output and a major share of export earnings. Rising commodity prices have boosted economic growth and exports in many countries and new countries are joining the ranks of natural resource exporters. Yet, enormous challenges remain in managing these flows in often weak institutional and governance environments. Macroeconomic strains include competitiveness problems stemming from appreciating real exchange rates, narrow tax bases, and exposure to volatile commodity markets. But there are also microeconomic challenges, not least in the tax and regulatory frameworks. Despite the large trade and financial flows, extractive industries often make a relatively small contribution to budgetary revenue, and, consequently, the wealth of the state. Increasing the returns from these industries, while balancing the interests of investors, must be a primary objective of resource-rich SSA countries, but doing so remains challenging. Weak institutional frameworks, including poor transparency and accountability and strong vested interests, have often compounded this challenge. 1. What are the lessons from past experience for avoiding the resource curse and harnessing the full benefits of natural resource wealth? 2. What tax regimes provide the best balance between governments and investors, between risk and reward? 3. Can a set of one-size-fits-all international best practice be identified (i.e. rules in transparency and accountability in extractive industries, including to ensure good governance)? Parallel Panel Session 2: Financing Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa French and Portuguese Infrastructure investment, rehabilitation and maintenance needs remain massive in most Sub-Saharan African countries. Limited availability and quality of transport, energy, and water infrastructure poses obstacles for productivity, business development and external competitiveness. In particular, power generation capacity in SSA has stagnated for the past two decades, in contrast to rapid expansion in other regions. Wide-spread and costly energy subsidies have absorbed increasing budgetary resources in many countries and have discouraged investment in the energy sector. But while increasing financing options are available, public investment and debt management capacity often remains inadequate. 1. What is the role of Public-Private Partnerships in infrastructure 2

3 provision, and how can their fiscal risks be minimized? How can capacity in public investment management and debt management be improved? 2. What is the role of big cross-border projects, why have they been difficult to implement, and what can be done to improve their prospects? Is there a role for the regional development banks? 3. How can countries make the best use of new financing instruments, such as Structured Bonds for Infrastructure? What are the trade-offs between different financing options and what are the implications for debt sustainability, scrutiny in project selection, and distribution of risks? 4. How can inefficient energy subsidies be reduced, providing an incentive for additional investment, without hurting the poorest? Parallel panel session 3: Creating Sustainable Deeper and Broader Financial Markets Finance is critical for long-term growth. However, financial markets in many African markets lack depth, and therefore offer limited financing opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as insufficient access for the population at large to financial services. Yet, rapid increases in connectivity offer new opportunities to all, even the poorest land-locked countries. With microfinance institutions, mobile banking, and an intensification of the development of debt markets, innovations over the past decade have led to a broader range of institutions in a number of countries, but the reach of those institutions is narrow and the sector remains largely bank-centric. Most recently the fast growth of some African cross-border banks has raised concerns about maintaining financial stability in the context of rapid expansions of home-grown institutions, and about adequate cooperation among financial supervisors. 1. What are key obstacles to financial access for small and mediumsized enterprises and are ongoing developments likely to ensure better financing conditions? 2. What are the most promising avenues to offer financial services to a broader share of the population? What key institutions are needed, and should governments foster institutional development through the formation/support of state owned (development) banks, stock exchanges, and other institutions? 3. What are the regulatory and supervisory challenges from financial deepening, how well are these challenges understood, and what are the key reforms needed ensure financial stability while supporting development? 3

4 Parallel panel session 4: Overcoming Fragility Top priorities for fragile states in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere are establishing the legitimacy of political and economic institutions and fostering social cohesion to set the basis for stability and growth. Effective policies thus require due attention to the social, ethnic, and political environment and welldefined achievable goals for the near-term. Much progress has been made in recent decades, but exit from fragility is still a challenge for several countries. Against this background, this session will focus on the lessons to date and how best to overcome fragility, including how to deal with the governance challenges in natural resource sectors, which are particularly acute in an environment of weak institutions, and how to foster employment creation, especially for young people. 1. What are the main lessons from successful transitions out of fragility, and what are the priorities for institution building and governance? 2. What mechanisms can effectively prioritize and sequence the objectives required in fragile situations and what should be the priorities for economic policies? 3. What should be the role of international financial institutions such as the IMF in assisting countries in fragile situations and what should be their core focus? 4:15-4:45 pm Moderators report back on Parallel Panel Sessions 4:45-6:15 pm Plenary Panel Session 2: Fostering Inclusion and Job Creation The over-arching objective for low-income countries is poverty reduction. How to translate SSA s growth acceleration into improvements in living standards for the majority of the population, particularly for the poorest? Recent IMF work shows that while the poor have generally benefitted from high growth, relative income disparities have widened and employment generation has been disappointing. Whether growth was inclusive or not depended in many countries to a large degree on developments in the agricultural sector, often neglected. Social safety nets, which can provide direct support to the poorest, remain limited in SSA. 1. What policies can promote job-rich growth in Africa? What is the role of the government? What can be done to enhance education and training? 2. What sectors will likely be the drivers of job creation in Africa? Is there a role for job creation in agriculture? 3. What is the experience with social safety nets and targeted cash 4

5 Friday May 30 8:30-8:45 Keynote Speech transfer systems to date? 8:45-10:15 Plenary Panel Session 3: Structural Transformation and Private Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa The public sector remains the most important sources of formal sector employment in most Sub-Saharan African countries, but global experience suggests that the key to long-term growth is boosting private sector activity. While constraints are diverse and country specific, reducing business costs, streamlining regulations, and promoting trade remain important goals for many African countries. Moreover, despite sustained high growth, structural transformation remains limited in many African countries. Manufacturing sectors remain small in most of SSA; agriculture is characterized by low productivity and little use of technology; and mining sectors are typically foreign-owned enclaves with limited job opportunities and little integration into the overall economy. Yet, population projections suggest that Sub-Saharan Africa will enjoy a demographic dividend, reflected in much faster-growing working age populations than other regions of the world. 1. Should/can Africa follow the Asian model, based on rapid growth of manufactured exports and an explicit industrial policy, or should Africa follow a different path? 2. What is the role of the private sector in structural transformation, and what policies can the government put in place to spur job creation and the growth of the private sector? 3. What are the key remaining constraints to private sector development in Africa, and what can be done to promote domestic and foreign investments? 10:45-12:15 Concluding Roundtable: Next Steps and Joint Action The panel will draw key conclusions from the conference : What are the long term challenges, both at the global and continental levels, for policy making in SSA? What can governments, the private sector and civil society do jointly over the next decade, and what are their respective roles? What is the IMF s role as a partner for SSA, and are the IMF s policy advice, financial support, and capacity building efforts adequate? Panelists include: Armando Guebuza (President, Mozambique) or Manuel Chang (Minister of Finance, Mozambique) Christine Lagarde (Managing Director, IMF) 12:30-1:00 pm Joint Press Conference by IMF Managing Director and President Guebuza 5

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