Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the EU

Transcription

1 Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and Economic Activities in the EU Draft final results for the Chemicals Sector Chemical Industry European Sector Social Dialogue Brussels, 2 March 2009

2 Focus and objectives What is the study about? Recent trends and developments in the sector, construction of scenarios and their implications for future jobs and skills in the Chemicals Sector The study is scenario-based, has an exploratory nature, and is both forward-looking (up to ) and backward-looking, i.e. analysing recent developments and trends providing the fundaments and building blocks for the scenario analysis and the implications of scenarios for job volumes and key in the study skills and knowledge needs and strategic options to meet these The results of the study should support possible future (policy, sector and other) actions and contribute to improving the strategic management of human resources 2

3 Step-wise approach in more detail Step 1. Identification of economic activities to be considered Step 2. Main economic and employment trends and structures by sector Step 3. Main drivers of change Step 4. Main emergent competences by function Step 5. Main scenarios and main implications for employment Step 6. Implications for competences and occupation profiles Step 7. Main strategic choices to meet these skills needs Step 8. Implications for education and training Step 9. Main recommendations Step 10. Final Workshop, revision study, finalisation 3

4 Contents Mapping Definition sector and value chain Output, value added and trade Employment Productivity and labour costs Trade issues Technological change Regulation SWOT Main questions 4

5 Definition of the sector Chemicals, pharmaceuticals and rubber and plastic products data based on NACE Rev 1.1: 24: chemicals and chemical products (NACE 2: 20) 241: basic chemicals 242: pesticides & other agro-chemicals 243: paints, varnish & coatings 244: pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical preparation (NACE 2: 21) 245: soap, detergents, cleaning & polishing 246: other chemical products 25: rubber (251) and plastic products (252) (NACE 2: 22) Developments in chemicals and pharmaceutical industries distinctly different Trends in the rubber and plastics sector often similar to chemicals sector 5

6 Overview chemicals Wide range of supplies to almost all other sectors of the economy; converts raw materials from the extractive (oil / gas) and agricultural sector (sugars / fats) into more than 70,000 products Key user industries: rubber and plastic products sector; pharmaceuticals; agriculture; textiles and clothing; construction; automotive; and pulp and paper Value chain of the pharmaceuticals industry differs structurally Europe s competitive strength: production structure organised in strong regional, integrated chemical clusters, e.g. in West- Germany, France, Netherlands/Belgium and Northern Italy 6

7 Employment, 2006 Overall Chemicals & products 24 Of which Pharma (244) Rubber and plastics 25 EU 22 3,747 1, ,831 EU 6 2,048 1, EU NMS (7)

8 Employment trends Annual growth, Overall Chemical products 24 Of which Pharma 244 Rubber and plastics 25 Of which plastics 255 EU EU EU EU NMS (7)

9 Regional employment - Chemical products Employment concentration (left); annual employment growth (right) 9

10 Regional employment Rubber and plastic products Employment concentration (left) and annual growth (right) 10

11 Employment structure (1) Company size and employment 2.5% of firms over 250 employees acccounting for 51% employment 10% is medium-sized enterprises 28% employment. Strongest growth in this segment across the board 87.5% small enterprises accounting for 21% of employment Education: 27% higher educated similar to rest economy In NMS significantly lower: 20% (and 32% rest economy!) Wages Above industry average for the sector at 39k per worker, with large differences between subsectors: highest pay pharmaceuticals 53k; lowest pay plastic products 29k 11

12 Employment structure (2) 12

13 Employment structure: age(ing) Lower share of younger employees (15-39y) compared to industry average, correspondingly higher share of (40-49y) employees 15-39y: 18% in chemicals & pharma, 24% in rubber and plastics, NMS showing highest growth, EU-15 structurally older high professional functions shift from 15-39y to manual / technical functions from 15-39y to 50-65y & 40-49y Many technical functions require tacit knowledge potential skills gap when the older generation retires 13

14 SWOT (1) Strengths Strong internationalisation Strong research base high quality engineers / university research Technology leader Close integration / clustering of chemicals activities Strong in specialty chemicals / pharmaceuticals Low cost production locations in NMS close to EU-15 market (rubber and plastic products) Research intensity pharma / biotech Weaknesses Structurally higher resource costs (oil, gas) High labour costs for low skilled jobs (rubber/ plastics manufacturing) Single European market (energy / services) lacking Structure EU IPR increases costs Relatively small plant size disadvantage Public perception of chemicals industry lack of interest in chemical education (also threat) Transport infrastructure (road, rail capacity), congestion, lack pipeline infrastructure Comparatively weak biotech research compared to US 14

15 SWOT (2) Opportunities Emerging markets exports opportunities, new markets developing Solution provider: solutions required for environmental challenges / technologies Efficiency leader competitive advantage if stricter global regulation comes in force New technologies biotech and nanotech; oil substitutes and new materials with higher performance characteristics Presence of user industries Regulation can be conducive to future development Threats Competition from emerging economies decline trade surplus in (basic) chemicals Relocation of user industries Growth markets outside Europe IPR violation particularly pharmaceuticals (generic drugs) Labour supply declining particularly high skilled technical personnel Unilateral EU regulation REACH / ETS structural cost increase High energy / resource costs Safety and security issues (densely populated areas) Small / creative start-ups being bought up for strategic reasons 15

16 Drivers of change Drivers rated in an expert workshop on scale from 1-10 based on relevance for the sector - drivers rated 7 or higher were identified as significantly relevant for the future Increasing global competition (7) Increasing market segmentation move to tailored / high value added activities (7) Income per capita (7) chemicals input to most manufacturing industries Ageing - Declining labour force (7) 16

17 Main drivers of change Emerging economies driving global growth (9) Environmental regulation (Others / REACH / ETS) (9) Security and Safety regulation logistics / distribution of hazardous substances; location of plants in densely populated areas (9) Offshoring of user industries (8) Availability and price of oil and energy (8) Increasing demand for environmental technologies / products (8) Quality of institutions / business environment (8) 17

18 Job Functions LFS classification Managers Computing professionals Specific jobs functions of relevance Corporate and specialist managers covering all firm functions Computer systems designers, analysts, programmers and computer associate professionals Job function categories Managers IT professionals Engineers and related professionals Chemical and mechanical engineers and technicians Engineers Business professionals Accounting, finance and sales professionals Accounting & finance Sales & marketing 18

19 Job Functions cont d LFS classification Specific jobs functions of relevance Job function categories Other professionals & technicians Office clerks and secretaries Service workers Metal, machinery & related workers Craft and related trade workers Chemical products machine operators Rubber & plastic products machine operators Plant and machine operators & assemblers Labourers Lawyers and Economists, other science professionals, and associate professionals Office clerks and secretaries, receptionists and information clerks, Transport conductors Machinery mechanics and fitters, metal moulders, welders, tool makers Chemical, pharmaceutical, rubber and plastic products machine operators, chemical processing plant operators, machine assemblers Manufacturing labourers; maintenance and cleaning personnel; porters; etc. Supply chain management Support staff (including drivers) Plant and machinery maintenance and repair Production workers Labourers 19

20 Scenario implications job functions: change (1) Job function Managers Computing professionals Engineers Production R&D Accounting & Finance Sales & marketing Scenario I: Global specialisation: Consolidate, focus and acquire global niches Specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals (pharma) Bulk chemicals - 0 +/0 + +/

21 Scenario implications job functions: change (2) Job function Supply change management Administrative support staff Other support (drivers) Plant and machinery maintenance & repair Production workers Labourers Scenario I: Global specialisation: Consolidate, focus and acquire global niches Specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals /- 0/- - Bulk chemicals

22 Emerging skills and knowledge needs by function Identification of emerging skills and knowledge needs is the core of the methodology Definitions based on European Qualifications Framework (EQF) and European Credit System for Vocational Education (ECVET) Focus: identify critical i.e. key skills and knowledge needs for the future, for each of the job function categories 22

23 Definitions (EQF/ECVET) Knowledge means the outcome of the assimilation of information through learning; the body of facts, principles, theories and practices that is related to a field of work or study. Theoretical and/or factual. Skills are the ability to apply knowledge and use know-how to complete tasks and solve problems. EQF: skills are cognitive (involving the use of logical, intuitive and creative thinking) or practical (involving manual dexterity and the use of methods, materials, tools and instruments). Competence is the ability to use knowledge, skills and abilities work or study and in professional and personal development 23

24 Overview of skills needs by category Social Skills: Team working skills; social perceptiveness (listening / understanding); communication; networking; language; intercultural Problem-solving Skills: Analytical skills; interdisciplinary; initiative, multiskilling; creativity Self management: Planning; stress and time management; flexibility; multi-tasking Entrepreneurial skills: Understanding supplier and customer relationships; business understanding; trend setting/spotting Management skills: Strategic and visionary; coaching and team building; collegial management style; change management; project management; process optimizing; quality management Knowledge = hard skills : Technical knowledge; Legislative and regulatory knowledge (environmental / safety / labour / contracting); e-skills; etc. 24

25 Future skills needs by job category Example Engineers: Skills and competences towards 2020 Global specialisation: Consolidate, focus and acquire global niches Global regionalisation: Diversify, specialize in niches Social Skills Team working skills Social perceptiveness Communication Networking Language Intercultural Problem solving skills Analytical skills Interdisciplinary Initiative Multi-skilling Creativity Self management Planning Stress & time management Flexibility Multi-tasking 25

26 Entrepreneurship Management skills Understanding supplier & customers Business development Marketing skills Trend setting / spotting Strategic & visionary Coaching & team building Collegial management style Change management Project management Process optimizing Quality management Knowledge Legislative / regulatory knowledge (environmental; safety; labour; contracting) e-skills Technical knowledge Product knowledge Product development 26

27 Overview of Strategic Choices: company level options A. Recruiting workers from other sectors B. Recruiting workers from other Member States C. Recruiting workers from non-member States D. Recruiting unemployed workers with or without re-training E. Recruiting young people coming from the education system, with or without re-training (first job recruits) F. Training employed workers G. Changing the work organisation (including network collaboration and mergers) H. Outsourcing and offshoring Note: not only companies but also others, mostly governments can play a role here, e.g. the EU blue card, fiscal and tax measures to stimulate training, overall business environment, etc. 27

28 Overview of Strategic Choices: options for sector organisations, educational institutions and government I. Providing information about jobs and (emerging) skills: career guidance; updating job profiles regularly J. Improve the image of the sector (joint industry action) K. Stronger cooperation between education and industry (internships, company visits for participants in education, image improvement) L. Changing vocational education M. Designing and offering new courses (continuing vocational education and training) N. Education system as a whole, taking not only account of the young but also looking at life-long learning trajectories (life cycle approach) Useful to distinguish between general cutting across sectors choices (i.e. measures that equally apply to different sectors) and sectorspecific choices (i.e. measures that address specific industry needs) 28

29 3. Chemicals Skill needs assessed for the Global Specialisation scenario Skill needs assessed for all job function categories Indicating viability of strategic options and possible actors 29

30 Strategic Options for Engineers Option Is this option viable? Actors 1 A. Recruiting workers from other sectors Yes, but limited to organisational, social and E-skills (modelling software). Not viable for most technical skills. B. Recruiting workers from other Member States Yes, but mainly in global specialization, difficult for SME s and often language barrier C. Recruiting workers from Non-Member States Yes, but only for large companies, not for SME s, language barriers D. Recruiting unemployed with or without re-training Yes, but training always necessary, especially for technical skills needed. E. Recruiting young people from the education system Yes, aim at technical skills combined with language, intercultural and entrepreneurial skills. Use sustainability in reaching. C, S C, S, E, I C, S, E, I C, I C 30

31 31 Strategic Options for Engineers (cont d) A. Training and re-training employed workers Yes, interdisciplinary courses, language/ intercultural skills and understanding customer supplier B. Changing work organisation Yes, Interdisciplinary team work, job enlargement and enrichment C. Outsourcing and offshoring Yes, both viable, mainly for large companies D. Changing vocational education Yes, for technical specialist, focus on good basis chemical education, followed by nanotech/ biotech skills. Including language, intercultural and entrepreneurial skills. Interidisciplinary studies. Toxicology and risk assessment E. Designing and offering new courses Yes, especially for technical specialists, custom-fit courses. Multidisciplinary courses. New technical knowledge bio based chemistry, risk assessment, modelling software C, E C, I C C, S, E C, S, E F. Providing information about emerging skills Yes C, S, E, G G. Improve the image of the sector Yes, more focus on sustainability in C, S, I order to reach young engineers. H. Stronger cooperation between stakeholders Yes, interdisciplinary studies C, S, E, G

32 Recommendations (1) Broaden the recruitment scope female workers and ethnic minorities personnel diversification better enables developing business in new markets and helps to build intercultural and language skills needed in almost all job functions Use the image of the sector as a bringer of sustainability in all forms of recruitment, but especially toward the young. This image appeals esp. to the young Einstein generation entering school & the labour market -- an engaged generation Bring chemicals actively to school to reach the young with possible affinity -- important to attract future generations to the sector -- primary school, vocational education and universities (workshops, apprenticeships etc.) Develop a university degree in Supply Chain Management strong demand need for internationally accepted degree and standardized EU curriculum. Requires stronger cooperation universities and industry 32

33 Recommendations (2) Standardize E, S & H regulations and implementation Environment, safety & health regulations are strict in the chemicals sector but their esp. implementation is different in practically every country making it hard for companies to become active in new markets or to promote personnel mobility without high training costs Pay more attention in Vocational Education to inter- and multidisciplinary studies, combine technical skills (e.g. biotech, nanotech and toxicology) but build/built on sound basic chemical education. In developing new courses, certain skills, such as project management, languages and business development need extra attention Standardize Vocational Qualifications in the EU, e.g. by using Experience Certificates. Would make recruitment much easier. The chemicals industry is in need of soft skills, such as communication skills, project management skills and E-skills. These are practically never in diplomas or regular education programs as they are learned on the job. 33