T. Ganesh Anurag P.G. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A.P, India

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1 International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET) Volume 9, Issue 5, May 2018, pp , Article ID: IJCIET_09_05_086 Available online at ISSN Print: and ISSN Online: IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTITES AND PRIORTIZING THE FACTORS CAUSING UNCERTAINITIES IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY USING RELATIVE IMPORTANCE INDEX (RII) T. Ganesh Anurag P.G. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A.P, India D. Satish Chandra Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A. P, India SS. Asadi Associate Dean and Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A. P, India ABSTRACT: Construction sector is considered as a prominent sector in back lifting the Indian economy next to that of agro-based sectors, not only acts a support in improving the economic scenario but also a complex sector which comprises lot of risks and complex processes will also include while executing the projects, Managing all the processes will be the challenging task for management team of the organisations. As we know that risk is nothing but an uncertainty or some threat which changes the entire scenario of project. Sudden occurrence of such risks will show their influence on cost, quality and duration of the project. In order to prevent such adverse scenarios, each organisation should develop an individual risk management system on its own in order to prevent effect of various risks on the project. The prime objective of this research work is to identify the various risk causing factors in the construction industry, and a questionnaire survey is conducted by selecting 25 factors on 5 point scale, and responses were collected from various experts and ranking of those factors were given through Relative Importance Index (RII). Keywords: Back lifting, complex processes, ranking, Relative importance index (RII) editor@iaeme.com

2 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) Cite this Article: T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi, An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII), International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 9(5), 2018, pp INTRODUCTION: Risk can be defined as the event that negatively affects the project objectives such as time, schedule, cost and quality of work. Any industry or organisation is not risk free, every industry will have their own uncertainty (risks) depending upon the projects, comparing to other industries or sectors the construction sector will involve various types of risks at each and every stage of the project, Although construction sector is 2 nd largest sector in upbringing the Indian economy, it had very poor track record of in term of managing risks as a result sometimes it s become failure in meeting the timeline of the project, quality and scope of the work. As a result, a lot of suffering is inflicted to the clients and contractors of such projects and also to the general public. Managing risks is becoming a very tough job for managing teams in various organisations. As earlier we said that Risk in the construction adversely effects the physical objectives of the project, cost and time, and construction risks may related to the design, political, environment, financial, and socio- economic risks. In order to manage these types of risks each and every organisation should develop or implement an individual risk management system. From the past mid 1980 s many methodologies had been implemented for risk management system, and risk management is studied as one of the nine research areas of the project management life cycle process. Risk identification is nothing but the process of recognising the various types of uncertainties that take place in the organisation which may cause due to the lack of management skills, stakeholder s management, contractor s or engineering negligence in the site, or any other socio-economic factors in the construction area. Delay in identification of such risks or uncertainties, may shows huge impact on quality of the work. It is main duty of a project manager to identify such uncertainties and to implement a proper system to eradicate such adverse scenarios. Risk assessment is nothing but estimating the severity of occurrence of risks and to study their impact on the projects. Both risk identification and assessment are the integrated parts of the risk management system. Many researchers, field experts and practisers had suggested many methodologies like PI method, Severity index to study severity of delay and risks that occurred in the project, Frequency index method to verify the frequency of occurrence of the risks, and IMPI based on both SI and FI, Relative Importance Index(RII), Kendall s coefficient of concordance (W), Spearman's rank correlation coefficient or Spearman's rho (ρ) or r s, TOPSIS (The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), Complex Proportional Assessment Of Alternatives to Grey relations (COPRAS-G method), and Analytical Hierarchy Processes (AHP) and various statistical methodologies like AIC, Regression techniques, Fault tree analysis (FTA), Analysis of Variances(ANOVA) were suggested to analyse the risk severity by comparing quality, cost and duration of projects. And project management tools like Gantt chart, bar chart, CPM, PERT, and software s like Primavera, MSP are used to check the risk in project duration (Occurrence of delays in project work). The main intention behind to choose Relative Importance Index (RII) method, as it is easy to explain / rank the severity of risk causing factors from the responses that received by using formula. RII = W/A*N editor@iaeme.com

3 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi Relative Importance Index (RII): - W/A*N; Where, W is the weighting given to each factor by the respondents (ranging from 1 to 5), A represents the highest weight (i.e. 5 in this case), and N is the total number of respondents that received. By using this method it is easy to assess the impact of risk on the project, by observing the RII value of that factor. An organisation is said to be successful, when it achieve the quality in the output of the project and when it fulfil the customer requirements by constructing the project as per the specification mentioned in the Indian Standard (IS) codes, and various specifications recommended by the various field experts. 2. OBJECTIVES: 1. To identify various risks in the construction sector. 2. Identification of relation between risk management and project performance. 3. Ranking of risk causing factors through responses by conducting questionnaire survey. 3. METHODOLOGY: 3.1. Data Collection In order to perform the questionnaire survey 25 questions had been selected from various factors which leads to cause of political risks, technical risks, socio-economic risk and financial risks and 50 responses were collected. And sample question in questionnaire survey was shown below: Problems in Acquisition and Land use (5) (4) (3) (2) Not applicable (1) And each response in questionnaire survey is analysed by using Relative Importance Index (RII) RII = W/A*N RII= (5n 5 + 4n 4 +3n 3 + 2n 2 + 1n 1 ) /A*N where W = 5n 5 + 4n 4 +3n 3 + 2n 2 + 1n 1, (1-5) is likert scale values, and (n 1, n 2, n 3, n 4, n 5 ) are the no. of responses recorded for each opinion in the questionnaire Field data From the research, the factors which lead to cause of risks like Political risks, financial risks, Technical risks, Project Management risks, and risks due to Socio- Economic conditions, were identified. The factors causing major risks in the construction projects were tabulated as follows: editor@iaeme.com

4 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) Table 1 Various Risk Causing Factors in Construction Industry Sl.no Factors Causing Risks 1 Problems in Acquisition and Land use 2 Risk due to administrative policies 3 Risk due to technical expertise 4 Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems 5 Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials 6 Problems in Site Mobilization 7 Delays and Rework due to design alteration 8 Problems with site execution procedures 9 Inadequate duration of activity 10 Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities 11 Temporary demand of increase in price of materials 12 Pressure from political parties 13 Non availability of resources 14 Loosing of critical staff at crucial point 15 Impact of weather condition on completion of project 16 Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work 17 Selection of Contractual systems 18 Project manager abilities in handling and management of risks 19 Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer 20 Sudden Change of Financial Situation 21 Financial Capabilities of Management 22 Experience of Project Manager 23 Improper allocation of Risks 24 Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Project management 25 Hiring of Unskilled labour 3.3. Data Analysis: Relative Importance Index (RII): Relative Importance Index is calculated for each of the indicators and ranked accordingly. The RII derived to summarize the importance of each indicator: Where, W = weighting as assigned on Likert s scale by each respondent in a range from 1 to 5 (1- not acceptable, 2- disagree, 3- strongly disagree, 4- agree, 5- strongly agree), where A = Highest weight (here it is 5); N =Total number in the sample Formula for RII: - RII = W/A*N; where W = 5n 5 + 4n 4 +3n 3 + 2n 2 + 1n 1 RII = W/A*N; where W = 5n 5 + 4n 4 +3n 3 + 2n 2 + 1n 1 RII = (5(15) + 4(33) + 3(1) + 2(1) + 1(0)) / 5*50 = editor@iaeme.com

5 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi 3.4. Research Methodology Flow chart: 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS: As per survey, response of factors were analysed in detail as follows: Problems in Acquisition and Land use Risk due to administrative policies Figure 1 Pie Chart Representing the Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk in Site Area strongly agree Strongly Figure 2 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Administrative Risk editor@iaeme.com

6 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) Risk Due To Technical Expertise Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems Figure 3 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk Due To Improper Allocation or Recruitment of Unskilled Employee in Organisation Un expected issues in transportation and storage of materials Strongly Figure 4 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response To The Factor Which Leads To Cause Of Risk Due To Improper Execution Of Plan And Negligence Of Site Engineer And Contractor Problems in Site Mobilization Strongly Figure 5 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response To The Factor Which Leads To Cause Of Risk Due To Improper Planning And Improper Resource Management Delays and rework due to design alterations Figure 6 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk Due To Negligence of Site Engineers and Contractor Problems with site execution procedures Strongly Strongly Strongly Figure 7 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads to Cause of Technical Risk Figure 8 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Construction Risk editor@iaeme.com

7 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi Inadequate duration of activity Delays and rework due to design alterations Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly Figure 9 Pie Chart Representing Expert Risk Due to Improper Planning Figure 10 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Temporary demand of increase in price of materials Pressure from political parties Strongly Strongly Figure 11 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to The Factor Which Leads to Cause Of Risk Due to Improper Planning And Cost Management Non Availability of resources Strongly Strongly Figure 12 Pie Chart Representing Expert Political Risk Loosing of critical Staff at a critical point Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly Figure13 Pie Chart Representing Expert Risk due to Improper Resource Allocation Figure 14 Pie Chart Representing Expert Organizational Risk editor@iaeme.com

8 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) Impact of weather condition on completion of project Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work Strongly Figure15 Pie Chart Representing Expert Risk Due To Climatic Conditions Selection of Contractual Systems Figure 16 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Project Manager abilities in handling and management of skills Figure 17 Pie Chart Representing Expert Organisation Risk Lack of co-ordination between PM and Engineer Figure 18 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Sudden change of Finanicial situation Strongly disagree Figure 19 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Figure 20 Pie Chart Representing Expert Financial Risk

9 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi Financial Capabilities of Management Experience of project manager Figure 21 Pie Chart Representing Expert Financial Risk and Organizational Risks Improper Allocation of Risks Figure 22 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Lack of co-ordination between clients and Project Management Strongly Figure 23 Pie Chart Representing Expert Organisational Risk Figure 24 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk Hiring of unskilled labour Figure 25 Pie Chart Representing Expert Project Management Risk and Organisation Risk

10 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) As per RII analysing of the survey, results in the given below table has been observed, from analysis it was identified that risks due to political pressures, financial situation, in efficiency of project managers, risk due to hiring of unskilled labour, and disturbances in the organisation, improper resource management and for in case of construction of infrastructure projects selection of contractual systems will show high impact on the construction of the projects. Of course change of weather and change of financial scenarios also show high impact on the quality cost and duration of the project. Table 2 Relative Importance Index (RII) values for all the factors S.no Factors causing Risk RII value 1 Problems in Acquisition and Land use Risk due to administrative policies Risk due to technical expertise Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials Problems in Site Mobilization Delays and Rework due to design alteration Problems with site execution procedures Inadequate duration of activity Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities Temporary demand of increase in price of materials Pressure from political parties Non availability of resources Loosing of critical staff at crucial point Impact of weather condition on completion of project Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work Selection of Contractual systems Project manager abilities in handling and management of risks Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer Sudden Change of Financial Situation Financial Capabilities of Management Experience of Project Manager Improper allocation of Risks Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Project management Hiring of Unskilled labour editor@iaeme.com

11 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi Risk / Uncertanities causing factors in Construction Industry Hiring of Unskilled labour Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Project management Improper allocation of Risks Experience of Project Manager Financial Capabilities of Management Sudden Change of Financial Situation Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer Project manager abilities in handling and management of risks Selection of Contractual systems Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work Impact of weather condition on completion of project Loosing of critical staff at crucial point Non availability of resources Pressure from political parties Temporary demand of increase in price of materials Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities Inadequate duration of activity Problems with site execution procedures Delays and Rework due to design alteration Problems in Site Mobilization Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems Risk due to technical expertise Risk due to administrative policies Problems in Acquisition and Land use Figure 26 Graph representing RII values of risk causing factor editor@iaeme.com

12 An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII) This research identifies various risk factors which effect the growth of construction and study on Relative Importance Index (RII) is done in order to rank the major factors leads to cause of the risk in the construction field. Factors like in ability of project manager, change in the financial scenario, sudden exit of project manager, improper resource management, and changes in environment conditions and also in socio-economic conditions shows high impact on the quality of the project and after observing all these, this paper suggests that a proper risk management system with various new methodologies and techniques should be arranged in the organisation, and it is main responsibility of the project manager to monitor the performance of project regularly for better output and to meet the customer satisfaction, because of the proper monitoring and controlling only the quality of the project will be obtained, As successful completion of projects with quality output will help the sector to sustain for long time and development of nation will also takes place. REFERENCES: [1] Divya Gupta, Manoj Sharma, Dr. Ashutosh Shankar Trivedi on Risk Management In Construction Projects Of Developing Countries, International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, Vol. 5, Issue 11, November 2015, pp [2] A. Suchith Reddy on Risk Management in Construction Industry -A Case Study, International Journal of Innovative Research in Science Engineering and Technology, Vol. 4, Issue 10, October 2015 [3] Seyed Hossein Abedian Kalkhoran, Gholamali Liravi, Fereshte Rezagholi on Risk Management in Construction Projects, International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology, Volume 10 Number 3, Apr 2014 [4] Lee Chun Siang and Azlan Shah Ali on Implementation of Risk Management in the Malaysian Construction Industry, Journal of Surveying, Construction & Property Vol.3, Issue 1, [5] Patel Kishan, Dr. Rajiv Bhatt, Prof. J. J. Bhavsar on A Study of Risk Factors Affecting Building Construction Projects, International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology, Vol. 3, Issue 12, December [6] Rashid H, Manisha M. Magdum, Manish A. Khandare on Delay Analysis In Industrial Projects By Using Relative Importance Index Method, International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Volume: 04, Issue: 06, June [7] Ashwini Arun Salunkhe, Rahul S. Patil on Statistical Methods for Construction Delay Analysis, IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Volume 9, Issue 2, Oct. 2013, PP [8] Greeshma R Krishnan, Minu Anna Johny on Assessment of Risk Factors in Construction Project Using PI Method, International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, Volume: 03, Issue 09, Sep [9] K. Jayasudha and B. Vidivelli on Analysis of Major Risks in Construction Projects, ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 11, June [10] Lokhandwala Hardik, Dr. Bhatt Rajiv on Identification of Causes of Delay for Industrial Construction Projects in Indian Context, Journal of International Academic Research for Multidisciplinary, Volume 2, Issue 12, January editor@iaeme.com

13 T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi [11] Divya Gupta, Manoj Sharma, Dr. Ashutosh Shankar Trivedi on Risk Management: Identifying Key Risks in Construction Projects, International Journal of Civil and Structural Engineering Research, Vol. 4, Issue 1, pp: (9-15), Sept [12] R. Prasanna Kumar, Afshan Sheikh, SS. Asadi on A Systematic Approach for Evaluation of Risk Management In Road Construction Projects - A Model Study, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, Volume 8, Issue 3, March 2017, pp [13] SS.Asadi, Y.Sree Ramulu, M.V.Raju and D. Satish Chandra on, Creation of Remote Sensing and GIS Based Risk Area Mapping For Ground Water Pollution Prevention: A Case Study, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, Volume 10, Number 4 (2015) pp [14] G. Pavan Kumar, SS. Asadi on The Effect Of Earned Value Management On Risk assessment Using Analytical Network Process: A Case Study, International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, Volume 7, Issue 6, November-December 2016, pp editor@iaeme.com