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1 3 : 50,, ,,, :,,, , GDP,, ( GDP 1) , ( Great Moderation)??, 1 GDP :www. bea. gov,, ( 2), 20,, , ; 20 90, ; ; 3,, :100732, com ( 04&ZD009) Bernanke (2004) 152

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5 (2005), ( ),, ;, Jermann Quadrini (2006),,, (), ;,, Jermann Quadrini,,,Jermann Quadrin ( ) (Real business cycle),, 80,,, Arias (2006) ( TFP), 50 % Leduc Sill (2003), TFP ;,,, (2004), Blanchard Simon (2001),, Kraay Ventura (2001),,,, ;,,,,,,,,, Kraay Ventura (2001),Cecchetti (2006), 25,,,, :, Comin Philippon (2005),,,? Philippon (2003), Comin Philippon (2005), ; (R&D), GDP, 156

6 ; ; Comin Philippon (2005), OECD, 20 90,,,,,,,,, ;, ;,, (1996), -,, (2006),,,,,,, ; ( ) ; ; ; ; ( ),,,2003 :, 11 12,2004 : :, ( ) 3 4,1996 :,,1997 :, 1998 :,,2000 :, 1,2002 :,,2003 :, 11 12,2006 :,, Ahmed, L. and Wilson, B., 2004, Recent U. S. Macroeconomic Stability : Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 86 (3), Arias, A., Hansen, G. and Ohanian, L., 2006, Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?,NBER Working Paper, No. W Bernanke, B., 2004, The Great Moderation, Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association. 157

7 Blanchard, O. and Simon, J., 2001, The Long and Large Decline in U. S Output Volatility, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 32 (1), Burns, A., 1960, Progress toward Economic Stability, American Economic Review, Vol. 50 (1), Cecchetti, S., Flores2Lagunes, A. and Stefan, K., 2006, Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth, NBER Working Paper, No. W Clarida,R., Gali,J. and Gertler,M., 2000, Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability : Evidence and Some Theory, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 115 (1), Comin, D. and Philippon,T., 2005, The Rise in Firm2Level Volatility : Causes and Consequences, NBER Working Paper, No Delong, B. and Lawrence, S., 1986, The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States, in Gordon ( Eds. ) The American Business Cycle : Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press. Dynan, K., Elmendorf, D. and Sichel, D., 2005, Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity?,FEDs Working Paper, No Eggers, A. and Ioannides, Y., 2006, The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of U. S. Output Growth, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 28 (3), Gordon, R., 1986, The American Business Cycle : Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press. Hansen, G., Andres, A. and L. Ohanian, 2006, Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?,NBER Working Paper, No. W Kahn, J., McConnell, M. and Perez2Quiros,G., 2002, On the Causes of the Increased Stability of the U. S. Economy, FRBNY Economic Policy Review, Vol. 8 (1), Kim, Chang2Jin and Nelson, C., 1999, Has the U. S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov2Switching Model of the Business Cycle, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 81 (4), Kraay, A. and Ventura, J., 2001, Comparative Advantages and the Cross2Section of Business Cylces, NBER Working Paper, No Jermann, U. and Quadrini, V., 2006, Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility, NBER Working Paper,No Leduc, S. and Sill, K., 2003, Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP : Accounting for the Decline in U. S. Volatility, FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper, No ΠR. McConnell, M. and Perez2Quiros, G., 2000, Output Fluctuations in the United States : What has Changed Since the Early 1980s?, American Economic Review, Vol. 90 (5), Philippon,T.,2003, An Explanation for the Joint Evolution of Firm and Aggregate Volatility, mimeo NYU. Stock, H. and Watson, M., 2002, Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?, In Gertler, M. and Rogoff, K. ( Eds. ) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press. Taylor, J., 1986, Improvement in Macroeconomic Stability : The Role of Wages and Prices, in Gordon ( Eds. ) The American Business Cycle : Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press. Weber, S., 1997, The End of the Business Cycle?, Foreign Affairs, JulyΠAugust. Zarnowitz,V., 1992, Business Cycles : Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, University of Chicago Press. The Stabilization of U. S. Business Cycle : A Literature Survey Cao Yongfu ( Institute of World Economy and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) Abstract :The U. S. economy has become more stable after World War. And since the mid21980s, the reduction of U. S. business cycle volatility was also significant. The causes of stabilization are complicated, which have caused intense debate in the area of macroeconomics. This paper makes a literature survey on this topic and provides some policy suggestions for China. Key Words :Business Cycle ; Stabilization ; Impulse ; Propagation Mechanism JEL Classification : E320, E ( : ) ( : )