Integrated Energy Planning For Pakistan

Transcription

1 Integrated Energy Planning For Pakistan

2 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Integrated Energy Planning Team Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Juliet Homer, PE, PMP Landis Kannberg Nik Foster Argonne National Labs Todd Levin 2

3 Agenda About Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) Goals Areas considered in IEP Lessons learned The three parts of IEP IEP steps Models Summary

4 Integrated Energy Planning (IEP): Fulfill a country s energy goals in an efficient, sustainable and expedient manner Explore linkages, evaluates trade-offs and compares consequences Support efficient use of energy resources Evaluate range of feasible options and assess them against a common set of planning objectives Can serve as an integrative mechanism that brings together various subsectors of the energy sector IEP is more than a detailed computer model or a one-time plan IEP requires a robust structure and process, as well as analytical tools Structure refers to the means of establishment and implementation of the plan, including evolving policies Process includes all steps associated with planning, including stakeholder engagement and communication Analytical tools used to assess alternatives Leads to policies and a program of investment and development options that are consistent with national goals 4

5 More about IEP A formalized process for federal and provincial entities to work together to develop a program of actions and investment options appropriate for Pakistan IEP is a tool for investment and decision-making Evaluate a range of feasible options and develop an agreed-upon and implementable energy strategy Decision-making that supports clearly defined and prioritized objectives and a common vision for the energy sector and larger economy/society Take into consideration risks and uncertainty about the future to ensure preferred energy strategy is wise, even if things don t work out the way we think they will Ensure short-term actions consistent with long-term strategy 5

6 Goal and Progress Goal of Project: Increase the Government of Pakistan s ability to conduct Integrated Energy Planning (IEP) Approach: Working closely with Planning Commission of Pakistan and important energy stakeholders in Pakistan Progress to date: High level Steering Committee for IEP formed MOU signed between USAID and Planning Commission DOE laboratory staff traveled to Islamabad in April 2015, Feb 2016 and Feb 2017 and met with stakeholders IEP Landscape Assessment Document developed that included a review of: Past plans and vision documents, international best practices, different analysis tools and current planning and project implementation processes IEP workshop held in Bangkok, Thailand October 2016 Participants included Pakistan energy sector stakeholders, both from public sector (federal as well as provincial representatives) & private sector, academia and development partners. 6

7 Integrated Energy Planning workshop in Bangkok, Thailand in October 2016

8 IEP Goals for Pakistan - DRAFT To provide a roadmap for Pakistan s energy sector for achieving greater energy self-sufficiency by pursuing policies that are affordable and sustainable To base decision making on analytical findings To develop an in-house energy planning capacity in energy related ministries/organizations/ departments Increase transparent participation of all relevant stakeholders in planning to ensure all significant energyrelated issues are addressed and enable successful implementation of resulting plan(s) 8

9 Areas typically considered in IEP Resource Supply Primary energy sources (coal, natural gas, crude, gasoline, diesel and heavy oil) both domestic and imported Refineries and Oil & Gas Distribution Key characteristics are inventoried and included in analyses; both existing and potential future Power Sector Generation (coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydro, renewables, and oil); existing and potential new plants Power Sector Transmission and Distribution Demand Sector Consumption of energy services for agriculture, commercial, industrial, residential and transportation Energy Efficiency A valuable but often underappreciated energy resource that can be deployed quickly and is low cost PLUS: Non-commercial fuels Off-grid energy 9

10 Specific desired outcomes of this project: Realistic and mutually agreeable supply/demand projections (short, medium & long terms) for preliminary as well as final energy mix Scenario-based mapping of potential energy strategies to accomplish national goals, identifying sources of risk and tradeoffs Least cost/optimal solution to meet demand for each scenario, Provide analytical basis for energy policies formulation & regulations Characterizes alternative energy strategies and their principal attributes Increased energy stakeholder collaboration 10

11 Lessons learned 1. World class computer models without participation and agreement of the right organizations are not effective 2. Good data is key! Don t underestimate challenges associated with data: availability, level of detail, and reliability 3. Open and frequent communication is critical 4. Need agreement on vision and objectives - Clear understanding of the purpose of IEP and what the process is being designed to serve 5. Don t become overly focused on the technocratic dimension; policy and organizational issues, and stakeholder buy-in are extremely important 6. Get stakeholder input at the right time. At the end, when model results are available, isn t the right time. Get input early! 7. Make clear specifically how subsector planning documents will be incorporated into IEP 11

12 IEP is more than a model IEP Three important parts: 1. Structure Articulation of organizational responsibilities and authorities for IEP 2. Process Identifying a clear process for both conducting IEP and applying the preferred energy strategies 3. Analysis tools Help facilitate development of preferred energy strategy through multiobjective analysis. 12

13 IEP Structure Most important part of successful IEP implementation Articulate responsibilities and authorities for conducting, participating in and approving IEP and implementing results Make clear who has ultimate responsibility for identifying decision drivers and arriving at a decision on the preferred energy strategies once all analyses are taken into consideration Includes how resource development and utilization and power system generation, transmission, distribution and energy efficiency will be considered in the analysis Identify organizations responsible for providing needed information 13

14 14

15 IEP Process IEP framework needs to identify the process for conducting IEP and applying the preferred energy strategies Stakeholder engagement is a critical part of the process; framework should spell out frequency and methods of engaging stakeholders Spell out how other plans (such as sector specific plans) will fit into the IEP process Data acquisition and management also critical here Getting buy-in on structure and process greatly increases likelihood for success! 15

16 16

17 IEP Analysis Tools Analysis should be done systematically and transparently Analysis tools are not one-size-fits-all Focus first on the questions that need to be answered and use the right tool for the job Start simple and then expand as capacity and skill level increase Lots of options available Ease of use and data granularity/availability are key considerations 17

18 Important first steps in IEP Step1: Step 2: Step 3: Step 4: Agree on vision, prioritized objectives and measurement criteria Define key questions and types of analyses to be performed Establish planning scope and responsibilities /authorities Agree on stakeholder involvement and data collection 18

19 Subsequent steps in IEP Step 5: Gather demand data and do demand forecasts Step 6: Acquire and assemble supply and resource supply data Step 7: Develop potential demand-side management plans Step 8: Develop potential supply and resource management plans 19

20 Subsequent steps in IEP Step 9: Design candidate energy portfolios based on policy objectives Step 10: Analyze portfolios under likely future conditions (Reference Scenario) Step 11: Stress test portfolios under different future conditions Step 12: Select a portfolio and develop nearterm action plan 20

21 Relatively recently completed modeling exercises 1. Asian Development Bank s (ADB) and Planning Commission Pakistan Integrated Energy Modeling Pak-IEM from 2011 Complete energy system optimization model using TIMES (the Integrated MARKAL/EFOM System model generator) Models is housed at Planning Commission and could be resurrected Also shared with universities 2. JICA s Least Cost Generation and Transmission Expansion Plan for NTDC in 2016 Optimization model Power Development Planning Assist Tool (PDPAT) II used to develop a least cost plan for power sector only NTDC is presently considering adopting and approving this model There are many different options 21

22 Analysis options A spectrum of analysis options are available Increasing Complexity Basic assessment of needs and strategies A matrix of ranked options A set of spreadsheet analyses Separate supply and demand models Simulation/ accounting models Detailed optimization models 22

23 Key considerations in selecting a model What questions need to be answered? Data requirements some models require huge datasets that aren t always available Skill requirement Technological availability / Computational requirement In some countries, collaborations with universities, think tanks, public private partnerships or academies of sciences have been very successful 23

24 Energy System Models Simulation/accounting models A model of the entire energy system User develops and test scenarios in the model that represent different policies or potential futures Compare results, select preferred path and develop action plan LEAP (Long-range energy alternative planning model) is common Optimization models Also consists of a model of the entire energy system Based on input parameters and constraints, models produces an optimized energy development/resource path given the inputs and constraints Models detailed market activities and elasticities TIMES, PDPAT II, MESSAGE and others 24

25 Output of Energy System Models Total Discounted Energy System Cost (all sectors) Change in energy system investments ($ spent on energy processes, power plants, demand devices) Power Plants Generation by Fuel Group (billion Kwh by coal, diesel, gas, hydro, renewables, nuclear, etc) Gas Production (Mtoe by country) Change in natural gas consumption (Mtos by sector transport, residential, power sector, industry, commercial) Final Energy by Sector Difference from Reference (in Mtoe transport, residential, industry, commercial, ag) 25

26 Example From Pak-IEM Annual Savings from Smart Policies Eliminating load shedding avoids $44 billion in loss Reducing T&D losses by 7% saves $2.6 billion (gross) Increasing energy efficiency saves $14.5 billion (net) Finding 20% more gas saves an additional $16 billion (gross) 26

27 Resource Planning and Optimization modeling *This is the Preferred Portfolio from PacifiCorp 2017 Integrated Resource Plan 27

28 Detailed risk analysis 28

29 In summary Information supports sound decision making Modeling is important for IEP, but without process and structure, modeling is only a theoretical exercise without real tangible benefits IEP should consider all resources, including energy efficiency and renewables Stakeholder engagement is important and can lead to ancillary benefits Good data is important and sometimes difficult to obtain Need an agreed upon process for collecting, reviewing and agreeing on data and developing a strategy for filling data gaps This takes time and is not easy We are off to a great start! 29

30 Thank you Juliet Homer, P.E., PMP Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 30