Advice to Government on Skilled Occupation List

Transcription

1 1 Australian International Education Conference Advice to Government on Skilled Occupation List 14 October 2010 Robin Shreeve Chief Executive Officer, Skills Australia Skills Australia: independent advisory body - current and future skills needs 2 Skills Australia will provide the Government with recommendations on current and future skills needs (and) inform Australia s workforce development needs 1 Philip Bullock - Chair Professor Gerald Burke Marie Persson Dr Michael Keating AC Heather Ridout Sharan Burrow Keith Spence Source: 1 Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech - Skills Australia Bill 2008 (14 Feb 2008) 1

2 Why have an Australian Workforce Development Strategy? 3 Productivity Participation Sustainability Social inclusion How can we best ensure Australia has the workforce capability required for a productive, sustainable and inclusive future? Future skills needs challenges 4 Baby boomers retiring: an ageing workforce 2

3 Population growth: international perspectives 5 India: reverse population pyramid China first nation to become old before it becomes rich Source: Developing 21 st Century Skills: New Strategies for New Times Presentation by Professor David Finegold (Dean of School of Management and Labour Relations, Rutgers University, New Jersey) May Process for development of the National Workforce Development Strategy 6 Workforce and education trends Planning for an uncertain future Modelling and projections Analysis historic data 3 Scenarios (Shell Group) Access Economics Workforce Futures - Overview and background papers Consultation with industry, providers, states/territories and peak bodies Where are we headed? Where do we want to be? How do we get there? Australian Workforce Development Strategy 3

4 Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025 Access Economics modelling 7 Projected total employment growth rates 1 Number of people in the Australian workforce in 2025 (based on the three scenarios): Open Doors: 15.3 million Low Trust Globalisation: 13.7 million Flags: 12.5 million Current : 10.7 million 1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009) Workforce participation levels need to rise 8 Comparison of OECD countries: people aged 15+ Australia Groups to target Men of prime working age (25 to 64 years) th lowest of OECD countries Women (aged 25 to 34 years) th lowest of OECD countries Older Australians (55 to 64) --- below NZ, Canada and the US Source: 1 OECD, Online OECD employment data base statistics for 2008, people aged 15 and over (accessed Feb 2010) 4

5 Supply and demand Access Economics modelling 9 The projected supply of students less the projected labour market demand 1 THE THREE SCENARIOS Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation Flags By 2015 Demand Demand Demand Supply Supply Supply BALANCE BALANCE BALANCE By 2025 Demand Demand Demand Supply Supply Supply BALANCE BALANCE BALANCE Skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the supply of qualifications, and if domestic supply remains at current levels, these deficits may be made up through Australia s skilled migrant intake. Source: 1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009) Projected growth: selected industries Access Economics modelling 10 Average annual employment growth 2010 to Industry Open Doors Transport, postal and warehousing 3.1% Professional, scientific & technical services 3.1% Health care and social assistance 2.9% Education and training 2.2% Construction 1.8% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1.1% Mining 1.0% Manufacturing 0% All industries 15 year average 2.1 % Source: 1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009) 5

6 Modeling findings 11 A shortfall in the supply of higher qualifications most pronounced in 2015, reducing by Relatively weak demand for Certificate III and IV under each scenario and strong demand for graduates at bachelor level. Skilled migration can help meet demand for qualifications. Key findings & Recommendations 12 The current capacity of our tertiary education system will need to increase by 3% p.a, to deliver the qualifications and skills Australia needs. Numeracy and literacy are a major barrier to increased participation and a national plan with targets and funding is needed. Workforce participation needs to rise from 65% to 69% to provide the workers and skills we need plus improve social inclusion. A collaborative approach between government and industry to build adaptive capacity in the workforce - agreement national Workforce Development strategy. The recommendations such as making better use of the skills, planning for specialised occupations and the tertiary education workforce may best form part of the future agenda or dealt with through other fora. 6

7 Planning for specialised occupations 13 We cannot plan for everything we need to adopt a targeted, focused approach Skills Australia has found that the labour market is effective in meeting skills needs but there are particular specialised occupations where intervention is required A common planning framework and an ongoing collaborative effort involving Skills Australia, the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, the states and territories, industry, education providers and Industry Skills Councils Matching skills and jobs in fluid labour markets? 14 People may not seek or find careers in their field of learning 40% end up in jobs which match their VET study Initial education or training becomes less relevant over time 45% workers change jobs every three years Skills are more than qualifications Importance of generic, cognitive and interpersonal skills in a service-based economy 7

8 Specialised occupations criteria 15 Long lead time those skills which are highly specialised and require extended learning and preparation time 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET qualification High use those skills which are deployed for the uses intended (that is, there is a good occupational fit ) There is a more than 50% match between the training and the destination occupation Significant disruption where the opportunity cost of the skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor) High information where the quality of information about the occupation is adequate Skills needs concepts and definitions 16 Skills shortages when demand for workers for a particular occupation is greater than the supply of workers who are qualified, available and willing to work under existing market conditions Recruitment difficulty where a business finds it difficult to fill a specific vacancy, even though there is not an identified broader skill shortage. This may be due to the characteristics of the business, the location or the skill set required for the position Skills gap - occurs when existing staff do not have the skills required for the positions they occupy 8

9 Temporary Residence Permanent Residence Four broad categories of skilled migration 17 Sponsored Not Sponsored Employer Nomination Scheme (employer) Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (Govt) Business Skills (Self) Not points tested Capped (dependents count towards cap) May be onshore or offshore Priority processing Skilled Independent Points tested Capped (dependents count towards cap) May be onshore or offshore Order of processing priority: CSL, MODL and Remaining applicants The broad categories of skilled migration in Australia Temporary long-stay business Not points tested Uncapped May be onshore or offshore Skilled Graduate Not points tested Uncapped Onshore only Source: Presentation by DIAC to the CEET conference, Melbourne, 30 October 2009 The new Skilled Occupation List (SOL) 18 Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL) + Interim Critical Skills List + Current Skilled Occupation List (SOL) 9

10 The process for developing the SOL 19 Based on a workforce development approach and the concept of specialised occupations Addressing future skills needs for Australia Analysis of labour market data, education data and migration data Not all specialised occupations on the new SOL Final decision of SOL rests with Commonwealth Government Specialised Occupations not on the SOL Likely to be in surplus in medium to long term (Primary School Teacher, Dietician) Other more appropriate and specific migration options (Specialist Commodity Trader) Australian citizen requirement (Judge) Course of study not sufficiently skilled (Financial Broker, Master Fisher) Niche occupation (Blacksmith, Farrier, Engraver) 20 10

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12 23 Annual Review of SOL 24 Skills Australia to review Skilled Occupation List annually and provide advice to Government Future reviews will also analyse labour market data and consult with stakeholders Consultation with stakeholders Industry Peak Bodies Professional Associations Government Education and training providers Next review of SOL in November/December

13 25 Australian International Education Conference Thank you Robin Shreeve Chief Executive Officer, Skills Australia 13