Keeping Pace with Employers

Transcription

1 Keeping Pace with Employers Making sense of future needs & current hiring difficulties Jeff DeBellis NC Department of Commerce, LEAD

2 NC s primary source of economic & labor market data, information, & analysis Funding Multiple sources, including state $ Most significantly by US Dept. of Labor (BLS & ETA)

3 Hiring Difficulties Are a Moving Target as employers react to changes Demographic Changes retirements and job turnover create most openings Cyclical Changes needs alter based on supply - tight vs slack labor markets Geographic Changes globalization & urbanization trends shift labor/jobs across areas Structural Changes occupations expanding / contracting with industries Intra-Occupational Changes technology / process advancements create skill change New Occupations birthed out of changes in technology, market needs

4 Changes we can react (faster) to a change is gonna come, but don t know when All economies cycle through periods of expansion & contraction 12% 10% NC s Monthly Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan '76 Sep '78 May '81 Jan '84 Sep '86 May '89 Jan '92 Sep '94 May '97 Jan '00 Sep '02 May '05 Jan '08 Sep '10 May '13 Jan '16 Sep '18 Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD LAUS

5 Changes we can react (faster) to a change is gonna come, but don t know when All economies cycle through periods of expansion & contraction Businesses still hiring during downtimes 1,200,000 1,000,000 Job Hires in NC 2Q Q , , , , Source: US Census Bureau, QWI

6 Changes we can react (faster) to a change is gonna come, but don t know when All economies cycle through periods of expansion & contraction Businesses still hiring during downtimes Employers react differently to changes in supply Number of NC Job Seekers per Job Opening Source: LEAD analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Conference Board, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS). Annual averages of monthly data.

7 Changes we can react (faster) to a change is gonna come, but don t know when All economies cycle through periods of expansion & contraction Businesses still hiring during downtimes Employers react differently to changes in supply What LEAD has learned through 3 editions of Employer Needs Surveys More employers having hiring difficulty Esp. Manufacturing & STEM employers in 18 Issues exist across all geographies Specifics are hard to pinpoint Experience, Ed Credentials, Tech Skills, & Soft Skills most common Lack of Employability Skills highest in 18 Low number of applicants high in 18

8 Changes we can plan for some elements of the future are more predictable than others Growth in Service economy 360,000+ Service Jobs, 64,000 Goods Producing Jobs In NC, Nov 2012 Nov 2017 Other Service-Providing 234,500 Professional & Business Services 91,200 Construction, Mining, & Logging 38,700 Health Care & Social Assistance 34,900 Durable Goods Mfg 17,900 Non-Durable Goods Mfg 7,400

9 Changes we can plan for some elements of the future are more predictable than others Growth in Service economy Can project industries with significant job growth LEAD industry projections Overall, North Carolina is projected to add through ,000 new jobs Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD Industry Projections Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Srvs Professional, Scientific, & Tech Srvs Admin, Support & Waste Mgmt [temp help] Retail Construction Education Other Services Finance & Insurance Wholesale Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Government Management of Companies Information Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation & Warehousing Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Mining Manufacturing 92,954 45,115 36,735 35,302 30,286 20,942 18,188 18,019 15,997 14,332 10,574 9,810 9,651 8,308 Projected NC Industry 5,388 Net Employment Growth 4, ,432

10 Changes we can plan for some elements of the future are more predictable than others Growth in Service economy Can project industries with significant job growth LEAD industry projections Can project occupations with significant job growth Separations = Transfers (changing occupations) + Exits (quitting work temporarily or permanently) Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD Occupation Projections Food Preparation & Serving Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Sales Healthcare Support Business & Financial Operations Management Personal Care & Service Computer & Mathematical Transportation & Material Moving Office & Administrative Support Education, Training, & Library Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Community & Social Service Architecture & Engineering Protective Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Life, Physical, & Social Science Legal Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Production. 1, ,950 1,736 2,317 2,160 2,067 2,569 2,418 2,352 2,693 3,259 3,127 3,517 4,485 5,517 Projected Avg Annual Occupational Group Net Employment Growth NC,

11 Changes we can plan for some elements of the future are more predictable than others Growth in Service economy Can project industries with significant job growth LEAD industry projections Can project occupations with significant job growth Not all STEM occupations are projected to produce lots of jobs Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD Occupation Projections Food Preparation & Serving Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Sales Healthcare Support Business & Financial Operations Management Personal Care & Service Computer & Mathematical Transportation & Material Moving Office & Administrative Support Education, Training, & Library Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Community & Social Service Architecture & Engineering Protective Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Life, Physical, & Social Science Legal Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Production. 1, ,950 1,736 2,317 2,160 2,067 2,569 2,418 2,352 2,693 3,259 3,127 3,517 4,485 5,517 Projected Avg Annual Occupational Group Net Employment Growth NC,

12 Changes we can plan for some elements of the future are more predictable than others Growth in Service economy Can project industries with significant job growth LEAD industry projections Can project occupations with significant job growth Not all STEM occupations are projected to produce lots of jobs And most job openings Most openings are replacements Separations = Transfers (changing occupations) + Exits (quitting work temporarily or permanently) Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD Occupation Projections Food Preparation & Serving Office & Administrative Support Sales Transportation & Material Moving Production Personal Care & Service Education, Training, & Library Business & Financial Operations Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Construction & Extraction Management Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Healthcare Support Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Protective Service Computer & Mathematical Community & Social Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Architecture & Engineering Life, Physical, & Social Science Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Legal 15,543 10,406 9,470 9,069 6,120 5,081 23,569 21,506 21,352 20,164 20,093 19,184 18,883 3,494 2,645 1,785 24, ,076 38,789 2,418 1, ,067 1,950 2,693 1,736 3,259 4,485 3,127 77,054 74,475 70,716 2,569 2, ,352 2,317 3,517 5,517 Projected Avg Annual Occupational Job Openings NC, Net Job Openings due to: Separations Job Growth / Loss

13 Changes we can prepare for how to prep for the unknown Perspective High number of low-educated positions likely remain More knowledge needed Higher growth in more-educated occupations Number of Net New Jobs Projected 208, % Growth Rate & Counts of Projected New Jobs by BLS Estimate of Minimum Education Required , % 108, % 22, % Percent Change in Jobs Source: NC Department of Commerce, LEAD Occupation Projections High School Diploma or Less Associate's, Credential, or Some College Bachelor's Master s or Above

14 Changes we can prepare for how to prep for the unknown Perspective High number of low-educated positions likely remain More knowledge needed Higher growth in more-educated occupations More (soft?) skills needed Most NC jobs require Non-Routine work 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 26% Routine Manual Routine Cognitive Share of NC s Primary Jobs by degree of work requirements Non-Routine Cognitive 11% 16% Non-Routine Manual 40% 5% Source: BLS, Current Population Survey 0%

15 Changes we can prepare for how to prep for the unknown Perspective High number of low-educated positions likely remain More knowledge needed Higher growth in more-educated occupations More (soft?) skills needed Most NC jobs require Non-Routine work Develop valuable, in-demand skills Those with highest impact on wages? STEM Skills Highest Impact on NC Occupational Wages followed by General, Management, & Technical Skill categories Complex Problem Solving Critical Thinking Judgment & Decision Making Mathematics Operations Analysis Programming, Science Systems Analysis Systems Evaluation Technology Design Source: LEAD,

16 How to keep up? reacting, planning, and preparing for future employer needs Engage industries broadly Focus on trends rather than current conditions Don t blindly react to employer needs Help employers balance short-term needs & workers long-term priorities Growing jobs vs jobs with most openings Prepare workforce for jobs with less structure & guidance non-routine work Identify means of prioritizing & incorporating skill development Create means for students to validate/demonstrate skill mastery

17 Thank you. Jeff DeBellis Follow us