The LEHD Program and LED Partnership

Transcription

1 The LEHD Program and LED Partnership Innovative Data and Analysis Tools 7 April 2017 Earlene Dowell, Joyce Hahn, Heath Hayward LEHD Program Center for Economic Studies U.S. Census Bureau

2 Outline What is LED and how can I use it? LED Public-use Data and Web Tools Live Demonstrations Questions 2

3 What are LEHD and LED? LEHD (Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics) The LEHD Program at the US Census Bureau has constructed unique linked employer-employee data for the United States. It connects administrative records with census and survey data to produce new public-use data products as well as microdata for research. LED (Local Employment Dynamics) Partnership LEHD accesses state data through the LED Partnership - a cooperative partnership with states and DC, PR, and USVI State-provided data: Unemployment Insurance (jobs/workers) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (firms) Other data available to the Census Bureau Censuses, Surveys, and Tax Information 3

4 Where Do the Data Come From? Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Partnership Begun in late 1990s with a few states Some states have time series back to 1990 (AZ goes back to 2004) Not currently producing data for Wyoming, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands 4

5 QCEW* Admin. Records & LED Infrastructure Economic Survey Data Business Register Firm Data UI* Wage Records Jobs Data OPM* Federal Records Person Data Demographic Census/Survey Data QCEW = Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages UI = Unemployment Insurance OPM = Office of Personnel Management Linked National Jobs Data Public-Use Data Products Job data cover over 95% of private employment and most state, local, and federal jobs Data availability: , start year varies by state, rolling end date

6 Why Are LED Data Special? 100% Coverage of UI Covered Jobs Firm Characteristics crossed with Worker Characteristics Detailed Geography Data Currency Accessible via powerful and easy-to-use tools Flexible outputs: PDF reports, Excel tables, highquality images, and shapefiles 6

7 Data Products Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) 32 indicators by Industry (NAICS 2, 3, and 4-digit), Firm Age, Firm Size Worker Age, Race, Ethnicity, Sex, Education State, County, CBSA, WIB Area >150 Million job records processed each quarter Longitudinal series starts in 1990 for some states LEHD Origin-Destination Emp. Statistics (LODES) Connects a job/worker s employment and residential locations Data at census block detail Less characteristic detail than QWI Job-to-Job Flows (J2J) - Beta Flows between jobs as well as into/out of nonemployment 7

8 Dissemination Tools/Applications J2J Explorer (Beta) Dashboard-style analysis tool for Job-to-Job Flows OnTheMap Map-based analysis tool for LODES OnTheMap for Emergency Management Integrates live feeds of emergency/disaster areas QWI Explorer Dashboard-style analysis tool for QWI LED Extraction Tool Provides precise extracts of data (QWI only for now) 8

9 Choosing Among LED Data Products What do you want? Potential Drawbacks Data Product Employment, hires, separations, turnover, or earnings by detailed firm and person characteristics; quarterly time resolution; relatively short data lag Employment for detailed or customized geography; residential patterns of the workforce; relationship between worker employment and home locations Transitions between jobs by timing and firm or worker characteristics; transitions to/from nonemployment No geography below county; no residential information Annual time resolution; less detailed firm/person characteristics No worker characteristics by firm characteristics (except geography), no geography below states QWI LODES J2J 9

10 Data Product Choosing Among LED Data Access Explore the data, answer questions, or get visualizations Points Bulk data for use in analysis process/software QWI QWI Explorer LED Extraction Tool Raw data download LODES OnTheMap OnTheMap for Emergency Management Raw data download Live queries for building web applications Census Bureau API Future development J2J Job-to-Job Explorer Raw data download Future Development 10

11 QWI Explorer 32 Quarterly Workforce Indicators Flexible Pivot Table and Map/Chart interface Data on detailed interactions between firms and workers include employment, employment change (individual and firm), and earnings Analyze/report by worker demographics: age, earnings, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex Analyze/report by firm characteristics: NAICS classification (sector, 3, 4), firm age, and firm size Quarterly data very current (9-12 months old) National and 50 states available (plus DC) 11

12 Employee Count 12

13 OnTheMap Recognized by United Nations as a major U.S. statistical innovation Where do workers live? Where do residents work? What are the commuter flows of a particular area? Analyze/report by worker demographics: age, earnings, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex Analyze/report by firm characteristics: NAICS Sector, firm age, and firm size annual data (2015 coming soon!) 50 states available (plus DC) User-selected areas Based on Census Blocks Disclosure protection Flexible Inputs/Outputs 13

14 Paired Area 14

15 OnTheMap for Emergency Management Hurricanes, Floods, Winter Storms Disaster Areas Wildfires Demographic & Economic Data New Public Data Service for Emergency Preparedness & Response Comprehensive Reports Real-time Data Updates Easy-to-use & Interoperable Historical Event Archive Flexible Analyses & Visualizations

16 OnTheMap for Emergency Management 16

17 Job-to-Job Flows (J2J) fills an important data gap: Job-to-Job Flows is a beta release of new national statistics on job mobility in the U.S. With this data, users can learn more about workers entering and exiting nonemployment as well as those moving from one job to another. It therefore fills an important gap that other available data sources do not currently cover. 17

18 J2J Explorer 40 Measures of Worker Reallocation Six Visualization Modules with a flexible dashboard interface Export reports to Excel or CSV Trace worker movements through industries, geographic labor markets, and to/from employment Analyze/report by origin and destination geographies: national and state-level tabulations Analyze/report by origin and destination firm characteristics: NAICS Sector, firm age, and firm size Analyze/report by worker demographics: age, earnings, race, ethnicity, educational attainment, and sex Data updated every quarter 18

19 Starting with the Guided Entry 19

20 Where are Louisiana s teachers going? After Hurricane Katrina, there were concerns that evacuees who were teachers weren t coming back to Louisiana That they found jobs and stayed put In this example, we look at the J2J data to answer the question How many teachers are leaving Louisiana for other jobs, both in education or in another industry?

21 Starting with the Guided Entry 21

22 Louisiana education workers leaving to take education jobs out-of-state:

23 Louisiana education workers leaving to take non-education jobs out-of-state:

24 Job-to-Job Flows from Educational Services in Louisiana to 7 industries in 5 states 24

25 Job-to-Job Flows from 50 States to Educational Services in New York 25

26 Takeaways The LED Partnership provides unique workforce information and analysis tools at a relatively low cost LED data products (QWI, LODES, J2J) can give insight into local and regional economies and labor markets LED s web tools provide free, 24/7 access for users to analyze and visualize the data 26

27 Works Cite Suggested Citation: Job-to-Job Flows (J2J) Data U.S. Census Bureau Job-to-Job Flows Data (Beta). Longitudinal Employer- Household Dynamics Program. Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Data U.S. Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators Data. Longitudinal- Employer Household Dynamics Program OnTheMap Application U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap Application. Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. LODES Data (if downloaded directly from the website) U.S. Census Bureau LODES Data. Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program. 27

28 Web Addresses for Public Data Tools QWI Explorer qwiexplorer.ces.census.gov/ J2J Explorer j2jexplorer.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap onthemap.ces.census.gov/ OnTheMap for Emergency Management onthemap.ces.census.gov/em.html LED Extraction Tool ledextract.ces.census.gov/ 28

29 QWI Explorer Video Walkthrough Example Scenarios J2J Explorer Analysis Guides FAQs OnTheMap Getting Started Analysis Guides Other Tutorials Useful Links 29

30 Contacts LEHD lehd.ces.census.gov Data/Applications lehd.ces.census.gov/data lehd.ces.census.gov/applications

31 LED Reference Slides 31

32 Questions LED Data Can Answer Which industries in my region are hiring older workers? Younger workers? Workers without a high school diploma? What do these jobs pay? 32

33 Questions LED Data Can Answer Where do the workers employed downtown live? What share of workers employed in my community also live there? What share of workers with a short commute have a college degree? 33

34 Questions LED Data Can Answer Where did ND s oil and gas workers come from (industry/geography)? Where did MI s auto workers go to (industry/geography)? 34

35 Local Employment Dynamics Partnership Then: Begun in late 1990s with a few states Goal to generate new labor market statistics from existing records (UI and firm info) Now: 53 partner states/territories 3 data products 4 web-based data tools A culture of innovation and cost savings 35

36 Building on State Inputs We combine state records with other admin/census/survey data from the Census Bureau and other Federal agencies We can then create public statistics on: Firms & Establishments Jobs & Workers By Firm and Person Characteristics Without new respondent burden 36

37 Choosing Data 1 When should I be interested in using LED data compared to other available statistics? Suppose I m primarily interested in Employment Do I need the latest national estimate available? Current Employment Statistics (CES) Employment by industry - the payroll survey Current Population Survey (CPS) Employment status and demographics - the household survey Some sub-state geographies are available concurrently through Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) 37

38 Choosing Data 2 But suppose I need either sub-national employment data or statistics by detailed industry: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Employment by detailed industry, sub-state geography and better employment coverage (6-month lag) Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Employment by detailed industry, sub-state geography, and worker demographics (age, sex, education, race) and fewer cell suppressions than the QCEW (9-month lag) American Community Survey (ACS) Employment status by more sub-state geographies than CPS/LAUS (9-month lag) LODES/OnTheMap Employment at the block-level (>1 year lag) County Business Patterns (CBP) Employment at the zipcode-level (>1 year lag) 38

39 Choosing Data 3 Suppose I m primarily interested in Hires/Separations/Turnover Do I need the most current national data (1 month lag) or do I want to differentiate between quits and layoffs? Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Do I need sub-national data (state/county), data by worker demographics, or for detailed industries? Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) 39

40 Choosing Data 4 Suppose I m primarily interested in Wages State and Regional Wage Information by Occupation? Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) Wages by Detailed Industry and Geography? Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Wages by Detailed Industry and Geography and by Worker Demographics? Starting Wages for New Hires by Industry and Geography? Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) 40

41 Choosing Data 5 Suppose I m primarily interested in Commuting Transportation mode, time to work, work at home? American Community Survey (ACS) Commuting Data Commuting for Detailed/Custom Areas or Multiple Jobholders? LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES/OnTheMap) 41

42 Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Detailed workforce dynamics, by worker characteristics and firm characteristics Popular uses: Local workforce demographics Local industry workforce trends Workforce turnover, job creation and destruction 42

43 Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Can see workforce composition by detailed firm characteristics Such as what share of the workforce at startup firms is female? 53% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% Percentage of Female Workers at New Firms, Actual Constant 2002 Industry Shares Note: "New Firms" are firms of age 0 or 1. "Actual" is the percentage of female workers at new firms observed in the data. "Constant 2002 Industry Shares" measures the hypothetical percentage of female workers at new firms, assuming that the distribution of new firms across industries remained constant at their 2002Q2 levels. Data is for privately-owned firms and excludes workers in the following states: AZ, AR, DC, MA, MS & NH. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, 2013 Q3 Release 43

44 Job-to-Job Flows Types of questions that can be answered: How did the growth and decline in construction jobs in the last decade impact the ability of lowwage workers to move to better jobs? Where are North Dakota s oil boom workers coming from? Download data from 44

45 Job-to-Job flows 45

46 Job-to-Job flows 46

47 OnTheMap: Where workers live, and where they work This map shows LODES data of where residents of Vancouver, Washington work Popular uses: local economic development business site selection emergency planning 47

48 OnTheMap: Blocklevel employment detail 48

49 Hurricane Sandy - October 25,

50 Real World Examples Some brief examples of from our users 50

51 LODES: An Examination of Maryland Enterprise Zones 51

52 LODES: Growth in City Centers ory.org/wpcontent/uploads/20 15/02/Surging- City-Center- Jobs.pdf 52

53 QWI: Education and Employment in Utah 53

54 QWI: A Comparison of I-95 and I-270 Corridors 54

55 Kansas City, MO Earnings Tax Civic Council of Greater Kansas City 1% Earnings Tax on gross compensation for all those living or working in KCMO In 2010 & 2011, ballot challenges to the tax were brought to voters LODES and QWI from LED helped the community focus on issues and outcomes and showed tax and benefits are shared with non-kcmo residents. 55

56 QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights 56

57 QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights 57

58 QWI: Combining More than One Indicator to Create New Insights 58