Hue, July 24 th, 2018

Transcription

1 Hue, July 24 th, 2018

2 Labor Market Analysis and Forecast The world changes continuously (science, technology, population, environment, etc.) Big data is a resource Analysis and forecast is a very important tool

3 Matching Labor Supply and Demand Labor Supply Labor Market developments Labor Demand

4 Labor Market indicators Labor Supply Labor Market performance Labor Demand Population, population of age 15+ Labor force participation rate Education background Technical qualification Sex Urban / Rural areas Age groups Unemployment Populattion without economic activities Unemployment Long term Youth Education background/ skill based Under-employment Skill matching Employment Formal Inflormal Employment Sector based Occupation based Status based Based on number of hours Productivity Wages

5 CHART OF LABOR AND EMPLOYMENT Vietnam s population in m people, 64.9% in rural areas Population of age ,197 m people (80.2%) Population without economic activities 17,034 million (23,6% of age 15+) Employed 54,052 m Workforce 55,163 m (workforce participation rate: 76.9%) Unemploymed 1,111 m

6 Labor force ,348 53,246 53,748 53,984 54,445 54,524 76,76 77,52 77,51 77,41 76,75 75, LLLĐ (triệu người) Tỷ lệ tham gia LLLĐ (%)

7 Labor force structure by professional level in 2017 (%) college 3,17 Intermediate; 5,42 Elementary; 3,53 Graduate and post-graduate: 9,48, 0 Unskilled; 61,92 Non-qualification technical workers; 16,48

8 Employment Employment (million of people) Structure (%) Agriculture, forestry, aquatic products ,31 Industry - Construction ,44 Service , Waged employment Self-employment and household employment public sector Private sector Individual Foreign Investment Zone

9 Unemployment rate (%) in 2013 and ,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 1,7 1,6 Không có CMKT 6,5 4,8 3,1 3,6 3,3 3,5 2,9 2,1 1,8 1,9 Sơ cấp Trung cấp Cao đẳng Đại học trở lên Chung Năm 2013 Năm 2017

10 Diagram 1: Steps to carry out labor market forecast State 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 <Labor demand forecast> Economic growth Forecasting employment coefficient Forecasting the labor demand by sector Forecasting the demand for labor by sector Forecasting labor demand according to the training level of each sector Forecasting the labor demand by occupation Forecasting labor demand occupational standards Forecasting labor demand by training level <Labor supply forecast> Forecasting total population Forecasting labor force participation rate Population projection from 15+ Labor force forecasting (labor supply) Forecasting labor supply level, urban-rural, gender Labor Supply-demand gap Results of labor demand forecasting by training level

11 Sơ đồ 2: Các nhóm nghề cấp 1 tương ứng với mức tay nghề

12 Cross table Employment by Occupation Occupations Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Sum Sector 1 National Economic Sectors Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 4. - Sum 35

13 Cross table Employment by Occupation - Qualification Occupations Job 1 Job 2 Job 3 Job 4 Job 5 Job 6 Sum Level 1 Level 2 Qualification Level 3 Level 4 - Sum 36

14 Labor demand forecast (amount of employment) Scale, the employment structure by urban rural areas, sex, age group; Scale, employment structure by educational level, technical qualifications; Scale, structure of employment by national economy (VSIC), occupation; Forecast on cross table of employment by sector and national economy (VSIC) and occupations; Forecast on cross table of employment by sector and national economy (VSIC) and technical qualifications; Forecast on cross table employment by occupation and technical qualification; Labor market signals include: occupations that are in demand, will be lost, will arise, etc. in the short term, medium term and long term

15 Forecast of labor supply (labor force) Scale, population structure from 15+ by urban rural areas, sex, age group; Labor force participation rate by urban rural areas, sex, age group; Scale, labor force structure by urban rural areas, sex, age group; Quality of labor force by educational level, professional and technical qualification; Unemployment rate by urban rural areas, sex, age group; Unemployment rate by education level, technical qualification.

16 Balancing between labor supply and demand Identifying the scale, excess structure or labor shortage: by urban - rural, gender, age group; by education level, technical qualification

17 Additional methods for analysing and forecasting labor market Population projection by component-based method; Employment coefficient method; Multivariable regression with each national economic sector, occupation, professional qualifications, educational level, etc.; Questionnaire survey method; Cobb-Douglas method of production function; RAS method (Reynolds-Averaged Simulation)

18 Data Sources for analysing and forcasting labor market The Population and Housing Census of the General Statistics Office (GSO) every 10 years; Quarterly employment or labour force survey Survey on living standards of Vietnamese households (GSO), Survey on enterprises and on non-agricultural enterprises (GSO); Survey on Labor Demand and Labor Supply and Demand Database (Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs); Information of socio-economic development monthly, bi-annually and annually of the Government and the resolution of the National Assembly.

19 Challenges in analyzing and forecasting labor market There is no unified labor market information system that enable coverage on labor supply and demand information. Labor market databases are incomplete and not updated regularly; Vietnam has no infrastructure for collecting and supplying data and no data procedure, especially for information technology equipment and software, and processing. There need be experts to generalize information from different sources and provide forecast of labor market supply and demand. The labor forecast system is fragmented: There are a number of different organizations doing similar work on labor forecasting, and there seems to be little or no cooperation between agencies, ministries and sectors.

20